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Lightning at Predators
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸3
Nashville Predators
2
Final/OTTV BSSO, BSSUN·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Nashville Predators 3-2 in overtime, Steven Stamkos scoring at 2:36. The Predators scored first; the Lightning answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Steven Stamkos's goal at 2:36 of overtime, which took the Lightning's chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 4.2 to 2.3; shots on goal were TBL 39, NSH 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 78% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 30 of 32 (.938); Juuse Saros stopped 36 of 39 (.923), 1.2 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Steven Stamkos (1 G), 2. Andrei Vasilevskiy (30 saves, .938), 3. Filip Forsberg (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    S. Stamkos1 G
  2. ★★
    TBL
    A. Vasilevskiy30 saves, .938
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TBLTBL0181121613339
NSHNSH1120811101232

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    F. Forsberg(7)PPG
    M. Ekholm (5), J. Parssinen (2)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +8 pts
    0-1
    1:50

2nd period

  1. TBL
    N. Kucherov(10)PPG
    B. Point (11), M. Sergachev (14)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    4:25

3rd period

  1. NSH
    N. Niederreiter(9)
    M. Duchene (10)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +27 pts
    1-2
    5:04
  2. TBL
    A. Killorn(6)
    I. Cole (5), N. Kucherov (17)
    deflectedxG 0.07win prob +40 pts
    2-2
    16:39

Overtime

  1. TBL
    S. Stamkos(10)PPG
    N. Kucherov (18), B. Point (12)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +51 pts
    3-2
    2:36

Penalties

TBL 12 PIM·NSH 12 PIM

1st

  • 0:39TBLVictor Hedman · Trippingdrawn by Roman Josi2 min
  • 2:09TBLSteven Stamkos · Trippingdrawn by Alexandre Carrier2 min
  • 16:17TBLNick Paul · Kneeingdrawn by Ryan McDonagh2 min

2nd

  • 3:44NSHRyan Johansen · Trippingdrawn by Haydn Fleury2 min
  • 10:26NSHDante Fabbro · Trippingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 10:26TBLPatrick Maroon · Roughingdrawn by Dante Fabbro2 min
  • 13:22NSHMichael McCarron · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Andrei Vasilevskiy2 min
  • 16:31TBLIan Cole · Interferencedrawn by Roman Josi2 min

3rd

  • 8:17NSHRyan Johansen · Slashingdrawn by Victor Hedman2 min
  • 14:16TBLZach Bogosian · Kneeingdrawn by Tanner Jeannot2 min
  • 17:04NSHRyan McDonagh · Trippingdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min

OT

  • 2:22NSHMattias Ekholm · High stickingdrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalTBL goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Steven Stamkos, OT 2:36 — TBL 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.27N. Niederreiter · Goal · xG 0.18R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.14R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.12R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.11E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.10F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.10C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.08N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.08C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.08C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.07C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.07T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.07M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.07M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.07C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.06M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.06A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.06M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.06T. Jeannot · Missed · xG 0.04C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.04R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.04R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.04M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.04R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.04A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.03C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.03M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.03C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.02M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.02C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.01D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.01T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH2 G · 2.3 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsNSH
4.23 G
All situations
2 G2.3
3.11 G
Even strength
1 G1.9
0.82 G
Power play
1 G0.5
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL78%22%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.13 – 2.31

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsNSH
39
Shots on goal
32
50%
Faceoffs
50%
2/5
Power play
1/5
12
Penalty minutes
12
20
Hits
35
10
Blocked shots
22
12
Giveaways
13
3
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD000+130.22122—26:15
98M. SergachevD011010.10030—25:51
86N. KucherovR123+160.77100—23:36
38B. HagelL000010.08000—22:31
81E. CernakD000-110.03310—21:58
21B. PointC022040.920003621:52
28I. ColeD011030.03102—19:20
91S. StamkosC101-150.902024318:24
17A. KillornL101030.18000—17:29
20N. PaulL000010.373022216:59
24Z. BogosianD000030.08702—15:58
41P. BellemareL000000.000007012:15
90V. NamestnikovC000000.000207510:50
79R. ColtonC000020.201008610:22
10C. PerryR000030.26000—10:15
22R. BalcersL000000.00000—08:24
14P. MaroonL000010.05102—08:03
7H. FleuryD000020.05020—06:29
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)32302.9382.32+0.3262:36

Season series

TBL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).