Wild at Canadiens 2-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Minnesota Wild

▸2

Montréal Canadiens

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Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Montréal Canadiens 2-0. The Wild scored first and never trailed. The Wild led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Matt Boldy's goal at 2:29 of the third period, which took the Wild's chances from 73% to 90%. Expected goals favored the Wild, 3.1 to 1.8; shots on goal were MIN 30, MTL 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 71% of the time. Cam Talbot stopped 26 of 26 (1.000), 1.9 goals saved above expected; Carey Price stopped 28 of 30 (.933), 1.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Kevin Fiala (1 G, 1 A), 2. Cam Talbot (26 saves, 1.000), 3. Frederick Gaudreau.

Three stars

★
K. Fiala1 G, 1 A
★★
C. Talbot26 saves, 1.000
★★★
F. Gaudreau

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	18	07	115	230
MTL	08	09	09	026

Scoring

2 goals

1st period

K. Fiala(30)PPG
M. Zuccarello (53), K. Kaprizov (51)
snapxG 0.17win prob +9 pts
1-0
6:57

3rd period

M. Boldy(15)
K. Fiala (45), J. Benn (7)
wristxG 0.19win prob +18 pts
2-0
2:29

Penalties

6 PIM·

8 PIM

1st

6:08Brendan Gallagher · Trippingdrawn by Kirill Kaprizov2 min
10:05Jonas Brodin · Slashingdrawn by Tyler Pitlick2 min
17:07Dmitry Kulikov · Trippingdrawn by Nick Suzuki2 min
17:50Chris Wideman · Hookingdrawn by Kevin Fiala2 min

3rd

11:53Kevin Fiala · Trippingdrawn by Nick Suzuki2 min
16:46Jordan Harris · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
17:50Jeff Petry · Trippingdrawn by Joel Eriksson Ek2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: MTL

Biggest swing: Matt Boldy, 3rd 2:29 — MIN 73% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 1.8 xG · 36 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 3.1 xG · 45 att MTL

0 G · 1.8 xG · 36 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.12 G
All situations: 0 G1.8; 2.41 G
Even strength: 0 G1.5; 0.61 G
Power play: 0 G0.3; 0.10 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

71%29%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.03 – 1.84

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

30
Shots on goal: 26; 44%
Faceoffs: 56%; 1/4
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 8; 22
Hits: 24; 14
Blocked shots: 22; 12
Giveaways: 16; 5
Takeaways: 7

Box score

every player line

Minnesota Wild skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
46J. SpurgeonD	0	0	0	0	2	0.15	1	2	0	—	22:45
97K. KaprizovL	0	1	1	0	2	0.35	1	0	0	—	21:39
36M. ZuccarelloR	0	1	1	0	3	0.27	0	1	0	100	21:28
25J. BrodinD	0	0	0	0	2	0.18	0	0	2	—	21:00
14J. Eriksson EkC	0	0	0	0	3	0.19	3	0	0	47	19:39
47A. GoligoskiD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.16	0	2	0	—	19:22
7D. KulikovD	0	0	0	0	3	0.08	3	2	2	—	19:17
22K. FialaL	1	1	2	+1	3	0.23	0	0	2	—	18:33
38R. HartmanR	0	0	0	0	1	0.18	0	0	0	38	17:22
5J. MiddletonD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	16:51
8J. BennD	0	1	1	+1	2	0.03	0	3	0	—	16:43
44N. DeslauriersL	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	5	0	0	—	14:37
89F. GaudreauC	0	0	0	+1	3	0.71	0	1	0	38	14:25
27N. BjugstadC	0	0	0	0	1	0.10	0	0	0	100	12:57
12M. BoldyL	1	0	1	+1	1	0.35	0	1	0	—	12:12
52C. DewarC	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	1	0	60	09:27
21B. DuhaimeL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	6	0	0	—	08:10
63M. ChaffeeR	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	3	0	0	—	07:33

Minnesota Wild goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
33C. Talbot(W)	26	26	0	1.000	1.85	+1.85	60:00

Season series

MIN leads 2-0

Jan 242@8Final
Apr 192@0this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Minnesota Wild at Montréal Canadiens

1st period

3rd period

1st

3rd

Box score