Skip to content
Hurricanes at Sabres
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
2
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
FinalTV ESPN+, HULU·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Carolina Hurricanes 4-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Sabres led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Victor Olofsson's goal at 12:08 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 52% to 86%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.0 to 2.7; shots on goal were CAR 34, BUF 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 18 of 22 (.818), 1.7 goals below expected; Craig Anderson stopped 32 of 34 (.941), 0.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Craig Anderson (32 saves, .941), 2. Victor Olofsson (1 G, 1 A), 3. Casey Mittelstadt (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    C. Anderson32 saves, .941
  2. ★★
    BUF
    V. Olofsson1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    C. Mittelstadt1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR11309112234
BUFBUF0521225422

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    J. Fast(12)
    N. Niederreiter (15), J. Staal (17)
    backhandxG 0.13win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    14:58

2nd period

  1. BUF
    J. Skinner(29)
    T. Thompson (24)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +16 pts
    1-1
    1:21
  2. BUF
    C. Mittelstadt(4)
    R. Asplund (18), M. Samuelsson (8)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +17 pts
    1-2
    5:59

3rd period

  1. CAR
    N. Niederreiter(22)
    J. Staal (18), B. Pesce (17)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +26 pts
    2-2
    4:10
  2. BUF
    V. Olofsson(16)
    R. Dahlin (35)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +34 pts
    2-3
    12:08
  3. BUF
    D. Cozens(13)PPG
    V. Olofsson (21), P. Krebs (11)
    backhandxG 0.09win prob +8 pts
    2-4
    15:11

Penalties

CAR 6 PIM·BUF 4 PIM

1st

  • 4:19CARTony DeAngelo · Slashingdrawn by Cody Eakin2 min
  • 8:23BUFDylan Cozens · Trippingdrawn by Seth Jarvis2 min

2nd

  • 2:26CARBrendan Smith · Slashingdrawn by Vinnie Hinostroza2 min
  • 14:56BUFVinnie Hinostroza · Slashingdrawn by Jordan Staal2 min

3rd

  • 13:37CARIan Cole · Hookingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalCAR goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Victor Olofsson, 3rd 12:08 — BUF 52% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.43A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.30T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.26A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.17V. Olofsson · Goal · xG 0.17Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.16J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.15V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.14J. Skinner · Goal · xG 0.13V. Hinostroza · Missed · xG 0.13V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.10D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.09C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.09A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.09D. Cozens · Goal · xG 0.09C. Eakin · Missed · xG 0.08T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.06D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.06V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.06T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.05T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.04T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.03C. Mittelstadt · Goal · xG 0.03V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.02J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.02A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.02M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.02C. Fitzgerald · Missed · xG 0.02C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bryson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF4 G · 3.0 xG · 32 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsBUF
2.72 G
All situations
4 G3.0
1.82 G
Even strength
3 G1.8
0.70 G
Power play
1 G0.5
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR58%42%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.73 – 2.26

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsBUF
34
Shots on goal
22
57%
Faceoffs
43%
0/2
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
22
Hits
12
7
Blocked shots
14
5
Giveaways
9
1
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77T. DeAngeloD000040.18002—24:01
74J. SlavinD000020.06020—23:44
16V. TrocheckC000-100.004105420:16
22B. PesceD011-110.01010—20:04
76B. SkjeiD000-100.01010—19:09
20S. AhoC000-240.521007918:50
86T. TeravainenC000-200.00000018:02
88M. NecasC000030.06000016:53
11J. StaalC022+210.013005016:43
37A. SvechnikovR000020.19300—16:22
21N. NiederreiterR112+250.48200—16:09
28I. ColeD000010.01202—14:56
24S. JarvisR000-310.24200—14:32
71J. FastR101+210.13210—14:14
13M. DomiC000020.080008012:21
7B. SmithD000020.10112—11:52
48J. MartinookL000-140.61200—10:54
78S. LorentzC000010.050003309:20
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(L)22184.8182.31-1.6956:04

Season series

CAR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).