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Sabres at Hurricanes
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
3
Carolina Hurricanes
▸5
FinalTV ESPN+, HULU·PNC Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-3. The Hurricanes came back from two goals down. The Sabres led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sebastian Aho's goal at 11:39 of the third period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 52% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 4.5 to 2.6; shots on goal were BUF 21, CAR 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Craig Anderson stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 1.3 goals below expected; Antti Raanta stopped 18 of 21 (.857). Three stars: 1. Jordan Staal (2 G), 2. Sebastian Aho (2 G), 3. Andrei Svechnikov (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    J. Staal2 G
  2. ★★
    CAR
    S. Aho2 G
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    A. Svechnikov2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF2611005321
CARCAR01227313532

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(32)
    J. Skinner (23), A. Tuch (23)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    3:49
  2. BUF
    A. Tuch(10)
    J. Skinner (24), T. Thompson (25)
    wristxG 0.32win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    6:25

2nd period

  1. CAR
    S. Aho(32)
    A. Svechnikov (34), S. Jarvis (16)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    4:59
  2. BUF
    V. Olofsson(17)
    C. Mittelstadt (12), M. Samuelsson (9)
    backhandxG 0.17win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    5:29
  3. CAR
    T. Teravainen(19)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.26win prob +17 pts
    3-2
    16:32

3rd period

  1. CAR
    J. Staal(9)
    B. Pesce (18), J. Fast (15)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +28 pts
    3-3
    5:12
  2. CAR
    S. Aho(33)
    A. Svechnikov (35), S. Jarvis (17)
    backhandxG 0.13win prob +33 pts
    3-4
    11:39
  3. CAR
    J. Staal(10)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.87win prob +2 pts
    3-5
    19:05

Penalties

BUF 4 PIM·CAR 6 PIM

1st

  • 7:38BUFRasmus Asplund · High stickingdrawn by Ian Cole2 min
  • 10:49BUFRasmus Dahlin · Hookingdrawn by Vincent Trocheck2 min
  • 15:10CARMax Domi · Roughingdrawn by Henri Jokiharju2 min

2nd

  • 13:16CARMartin Necas · Hookingdrawn by Jacob Bryson2 min

3rd

  • 7:23CARIan Cole · Hookingdrawn by Kyle Okposo2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalBUF goalFinal: CAR 100%

Biggest swing: Sebastian Aho, 3rd 11:39 — CAR 52% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Teravainen · Missed · xG 0.89J. Staal · Goal · xG 0.87T. Teravainen · Goal · xG 0.26S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.20V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.20M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.14S. Aho · Goal · xG 0.13V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.12V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.11V. Trocheck · Missed · xG 0.10J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.10J. Staal · Goal · xG 0.09S. Aho · Goal · xG 0.09M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.08B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.07A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.07J. Staal · Missed · xG 0.07A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.07J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.06V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.05S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.05T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.05A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.05J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.04S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.04I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.04M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.04T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.03B. Pesce · Missed · xG 0.03S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.03M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.03M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.03J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.03T. DeAngelo · Missed · xG 0.02N. Niederreiter · Missed · xG 0.02B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.02B. Smith · On goal · xG 0.02B. Smith · On goal · xG 0.02V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.02M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.01B. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.01B. Skjei · Missed · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.01A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.01I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.01N. Niederreiter · Missed · xG 0.01
CAR5 G · 4.5 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsCAR
2.63 G
All situations
4 G4.5
1.83 G
Even strength
4 G1.8
0.80 G
Power play
0 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF47%53%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.55 – 2.71

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsCAR
21
Shots on goal
32
36%
Faceoffs
64%
0/3
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
16
Hits
37
8
Blocked shots
5
12
Giveaways
11
9
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD000-210.05012—23:14
10H. JokiharjuD000-200.00210—22:28
23M. SamuelssonD011-220.08100—20:05
72T. ThompsonC112-110.15100019:08
89A. TuchR112-130.49210—18:26
53J. SkinnerL022020.351002017:38
45C. FitzgeraldD000010.02420—17:38
37C. MittelstadtC011-110.180003316:54
78J. BrysonD000000.00110—16:40
24D. CozensC000-130.441104316:37
21K. OkposoR000010.15000—15:04
13M. PysykD000+210.01000—14:26
71V. OlofssonL101010.17000—14:21
19P. KrebsC000010.18000014:20
28Z. GirgensonsC000-110.16100013:29
29V. HinostrozaC000-110.01010012:23
20C. EakinC000-110.110005912:15
74R. AsplundC000000.00202011:50
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41C. Anderson(L)31274.8712.72-1.2859:04

Season series

CAR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).