Oilers at Flames 5-9 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Edmonton Oilers

Calgary Flames

▸9

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Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Edmonton Oilers 9-5. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Flames led 6-5 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Matthew Tkachuk's goal at 5:06 of the second period, which took the Flames' chances from 53% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 4.5 to 3.7; shots on goal were EDM 31, CGY 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Mike Smith stopped 22 of 26 (.846), 0.9 goals below expected; Jacob Markstrom stopped 26 of 31 (.839), 1.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Johnny Gaudreau (5 A), 2. Matthew Tkachuk (2 G, 2 A), 3. Mikael Backlund (2 G, 1 A).

Three stars

★
J. Gaudreau5 A
★★
M. Tkachuk2 G, 2 A
★★★
M. Backlund2 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	218	39	04	531
CGY	39	313	316	938

Scoring

14 goals

1st period

D. Brassard(8)
E. Bouchard (26), D. Keith (17)
tip-inxG 0.12win prob +11 pts
1-0
0:32
E. Lindholm(33)
M. Tkachuk (49), J. Gaudreau (56)
backhandxG 0.19win prob +12 pts
1-1
5:28
C. Tanev(5)
B. Coleman (16), D. Dube (12)
wristxG 0.14win prob +14 pts
1-2
14:23
M. Backlund(11)
A. Mangiapane (15), T. Toffoli (25)
snapxG 0.13win prob +14 pts
1-3
14:39
L. Draisaitl(45)
R. Nugent-Hopkins (31), Z. Kassian (11)
wristxG 0.17win prob +15 pts
2-3
19:01

2nd period

L. Draisaitl(46)PPG
Z. Hyman (22), R. Nugent-Hopkins (32)
snapxG 0.25win prob +12 pts
3-3
0:44
O. Kylington(8)
J. Gaudreau (57), C. Tanev (18)
wristxG 0.21win prob +16 pts
3-4
3:07
R. Nugent-Hopkins(8)PPG
C. McDavid (61), L. Draisaitl (47)
wristxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
4-4
3:52
M. Tkachuk(31)
J. Gaudreau (58), C. Tanev (19)
wristxG 0.15win prob +17 pts
4-5
5:06
M. Tkachuk(32)
J. Gaudreau (59), N. Hanifin (24)
wristxG 0.14win prob +15 pts
4-6
7:39
L. Draisaitl(47)PPG
C. McDavid (62), R. Nugent-Hopkins (33)
wristxG 0.17win prob +15 pts
5-6
9:18

3rd period

E. Lindholm(34)
J. Gaudreau (60), M. Tkachuk (50)
wristxG 0.12win prob +16 pts
5-7
2:55
M. Backlund(12)
T. Toffoli (26), N. Hanifin (25)
wristxG 0.10win prob +5 pts
5-8
6:01
D. Dube(9)
M. Backlund (20)
wristxG 0.14
5-9
14:23

Penalties

12 PIM·

14 PIM

1st

7:54Erik Gudbranson · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
19:42Mikael Backlund · Interferencedrawn by Connor McDavid2 min

2nd

3:36Tyler Toffoli · Hookingdrawn by Devin Shore2 min
8:10Andrew Mangiapane · Trippingdrawn by Evan Bouchard2 min
8:13Erik Gudbranson · High stickingdrawn by Zach Hyman2 min
11:02Duncan Keith · Cross checkingdrawn by Johnny Gaudreau2 min
16:19Connor McDavid · Interferencedrawn by Calle Jarnkrok2 min
20:00Derick Brassard · Cross checkingdrawn by Andrew Mangiapane2 min

3rd

10:19Matthew Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Mike Smith2 min
10:19Darnell Nurse · Roughingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min
10:19Mike Smith · Roughingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min
10:19Matthew Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Mike Smith2 min
10:39Brett Kulak · Interferencedrawn by Chris Tanev2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: CGY

100%

Biggest swing: Matthew Tkachuk, 2nd 5:06 — CGY 53% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

9 G · 4.5 xG · 61 att

←

attacks

attacks →

5 G · 3.7 xG · 44 att CGY

9 G · 4.5 xG · 61 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.75 G
All situations: 9 G4.5; 2.82 G
Even strength: 9 G3.7; 1.03 G
Power play: 0 G0.9; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 105 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

38%62%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.64 – 4.50

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

31
Shots on goal: 38; 46%
Faceoffs: 54%; 3/5
Power play: 0/4; 12
Penalty minutes: 14; 21
Hits: 28; 15
Blocked shots: 8; 14
Giveaways: 13; 6
Takeaways: 7

Box score

every player line

Edmonton Oilers skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
22T. BarrieD	0	0	0	-2	2	0.19	0	2	0	—	23:57
97C. McDavidC	0	2	2	-4	4	0.74	0	0	2	50	23:02
29L. DraisaitlC	3	1	4	-4	5	0.71	2	0	0	42	19:58
75E. BouchardD	0	1	1	-1	1	0.04	1	1	0	—	19:44
25D. NurseD	0	0	0	-4	0	0.04	2	1	2	—	19:33
2D. KeithD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	0	2	—	18:56
18Z. HymanL	0	1	1	-3	2	0.10	1	0	0	—	18:46
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC	1	3	4	+1	3	0.16	2	0	0	44	18:02
27B. KulakD	0	0	0	-3	2	0.11	1	3	2	—	17:25
5C. CeciD	0	0	0	-5	1	0.02	1	2	0	—	15:50
56K. YamamotoR	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	14:47
91E. KaneL	0	0	0	-4	2	0.36	7	0	0	100	14:24
44Z. KassianR	0	1	1	0	1	0.00	4	2	0	—	13:37
37W. FoegeleL	0	0	0	-2	1	0.07	0	1	0	100	12:06
71R. McLeodC	0	0	0	-2	2	0.20	0	1	0	100	11:52
14D. ShoreC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.01	0	1	0	36	10:51
16D. BrassardC	1	0	1	0	4	0.80	0	0	2	50	09:45
13J. PuljujarviR	0	0	0	0	1	0.20	0	1	0	—	09:25

Edmonton Oilers goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
41M. Smith(L)	26	22	4	.846	3.06	-0.94	34:34
19M. Koskinen	12	7	5	.583	1.48	-3.52	25:06

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score