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Flames at Oilers
NHL

Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
3
Edmonton Oilers
▸5
FinalTV CBC, SN·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Calgary Flames 5-3. The Oilers came back from two goals down. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Leon Draisaitl's goal at 14:29 of the third period, which took the Oilers' chances from 52% to 89%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 3.8 to 3.5; shots on goal were CGY 47, EDM 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 76% of the time. Jacob Markstrom stopped 26 of 30 (.867), 1.9 goals below expected; Mikko Koskinen stopped 44 of 47 (.936), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Evan Bouchard (2 G), 2. Leon Draisaitl (2 G, 2 A), 3. Mikko Koskinen (44 saves, .936).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    E. Bouchard2 G
  2. ★★
    EDM
    L. Draisaitl2 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    M. Koskinen44 saves, .936

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY219111017347
EDMEDM01331226531

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    M. Tkachuk(18)
    E. Lindholm (19), N. Hanifin (11)
    backhandxG 0.56win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    8:29
  2. CGY
    M. Lucic(9)PPG
    N. Hanifin (12), R. Andersson (17)
    deflectedxG 0.14win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    19:19

2nd period

  1. EDM
    E. Bouchard(7)PPG
    L. Draisaitl (29), C. McDavid (35)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    5:35
  2. EDM
    E. Bouchard(8)PPG
    C. McDavid (36), L. Draisaitl (30)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +14 pts
    2-2
    9:41
  3. EDM
    B. Perlini(4)
    D. Ryan (1), C. Ceci (9)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +22 pts
    2-3
    18:18
  4. CGY
    N. Hanifin(4)
    J. Gaudreau (29), M. Tkachuk (19)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +23 pts
    3-3
    19:16

3rd period

  1. EDM
    L. Draisaitl(27)
    D. Keith (9)
    wristxG 0.29win prob +37 pts
    3-4
    14:29
  2. EDM
    L. Draisaitl(28)EN
    K. Yamamoto (6)
    slapxG 0.89win prob +2 pts
    3-5
    19:59

Penalties

CGY 6 PIM·EDM 4 PIM

1st

  • 12:25EDMDarnell Nurse · Cross checkingdrawn by Nikita Zadorov2 min
  • 17:27EDMLeon Draisaitl · Holdingdrawn by Sean Monahan2 min

2nd

  • 4:12CGYOliver Kylington · Cross checkingdrawn by Warren Foegele2 min
  • 8:49CGYElias Lindholm · Holdingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min
  • 20:00CGYMikael Backlund · Interferencedrawn by Connor McDavid2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalCGY goalFinal: EDM 100%

Biggest swing: Leon Draisaitl, 3rd 14:29 — EDM 52% → 89%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
L. Draisaitl · Goal · xG 0.89L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.49L. Draisaitl · Goal · xG 0.29K. Yamamoto · On goal · xG 0.19J. Puljujarvi · On goal · xG 0.17C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.16L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.15C. Sceviour · On goal · xG 0.13D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.09L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.08K. Yamamoto · On goal · xG 0.07E. Bouchard · Goal · xG 0.06K. Yamamoto · On goal · xG 0.05D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.05W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.05D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.05T. Benson · On goal · xG 0.05W. Foegele · Missed · xG 0.04E. Bouchard · Goal · xG 0.04B. Perlini · Goal · xG 0.03C. Sceviour · On goal · xG 0.03L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.03D. Shore · Missed · xG 0.03R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.03C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.02D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.02S. Koekkoek · Missed · xG 0.02E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.02K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.02W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.02D. Keith · On goal · xG 0.02D. Keith · Missed · xG 0.02J. Puljujarvi · On goal · xG 0.01D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.01T. Benson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.01R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.01T. Benson · On goal · xG 0.00K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.00D. Shore · Missed · xG 0.00
EDM5 G · 3.5 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsEDM
3.83 G
All situations
4 G3.5
3.12 G
Even strength
2 G1.8
0.71 G
Power play
2 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 96 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY76%24%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.68 – 2.07

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsEDM
47
Shots on goal
31
54%
Faceoffs
46%
1/2
Power play
2/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
30
Hits
35
14
Blocked shots
18
10
Giveaways
16
8
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4R. AnderssonD011+130.09320—22:55
28E. LindholmC011020.161025221:46
55N. HanifinD123+240.15110—20:26
58O. KylingtonD000-230.09102—20:26
19M. TkachukL112+141.13000—19:58
13J. GaudreauL011+170.35010—19:55
44E. GudbransonD000000.00310—19:10
88A. MangiapaneL000-130.1520010018:24
8C. TanevD000-210.00030—17:30
16N. ZadorovD000030.08520—17:09
20B. ColemanL000050.16130—16:53
11M. BacklundC000000.021125316:52
23S. MonahanC000-230.432006115:11
29D. DubeC000-130.26200013:36
17M. LucicL101-140.3920010013:23
22T. LewisC000-110.20200008:28
24B. RitchieR000-110.09300—07:30
15B. RichardsonR000000.001004307:19
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
25J. Markstrom(L)30264.8672.07-1.9358:54

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).