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NHL

Colorado Avalanche at New Jersey Devils

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
3
New Jersey Devils
▸5
FinalTV MSG+, ALT·Prudential Center

Recap

written from the game data

The New Jersey Devils beat the Colorado Avalanche 5-3. The Devils came back from three goals down. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan Bastian's goal at 13:04 of the third period, which took the Devils' chances from 58% to 87%. Expected goals favored the Devils, 4.3 to 2.9; shots on goal were COL 26, NJD 43. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Devils win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Darcy Kuemper stopped 38 of 42 (.905); Nico Daws stopped 23 of 26 (.885). Three stars: 1. Jesper Bratt (3 A), 2. Jack Hughes (2 A), 3. Nathan Bastian (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NJD
    J. Bratt3 A
  2. ★★
    NJD
    J. Hughes2 A
  3. ★★★
    NJD
    N. Bastian1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL2818010326
NJDNJD014318211543

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(19)PPG
    G. Landeskog (29), M. Rantanen (40)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    9:04
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(27)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (40), C. Makar (44)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +12 pts
    2-0
    14:27

2nd period

  1. COL
    C. Makar(21)
    D. Toews (33), N. MacKinnon (41)
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +11 pts
    3-0
    5:52
  2. NJD
    T. Tatar(10)
    J. Siegenthaler (13), J. Bratt (33)
    snapxG 0.22win prob +10 pts
    3-1
    9:20
  3. NJD
    T. Smith(3)
    J. Hughes (25), Y. Sharangovich (16)
    backhandxG 0.03win prob +17 pts
    3-2
    12:18
  4. NJD
    D. Severson(8)PPG
    J. Bratt (34), P. Zacha (15)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +17 pts
    3-3
    17:21

3rd period

  1. NJD
    N. Bastian(10)PPG
    J. Hughes (26), J. Bratt (35)
    wristxG 0.31win prob +29 pts
    3-4
    13:04
  2. NJD
    Y. Sharangovich(14)EN
    D. Mercer (20)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +7 pts
    3-5
    18:19

Penalties

COL 8 PIM·NJD 8 PIM

1st

  • 7:48NJDMichael McLeod · Slashingdrawn by Andre Burakovsky2 min
  • 14:20NJDDamon Severson · Trippingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

2nd

  • 12:32COLNazem Kadri · Trippingdrawn by Jimmy Vesey2 min
  • 16:40COLJack Johnson · Trippingdrawn by Jesper Bratt2 min
  • 18:24COLGabriel Landeskog · Hookingdrawn by Jack Hughes2 min

3rd

  • 6:57NJDJonas Siegenthaler · Trippingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 12:35COLMikko Rantanen · Trippingdrawn by Jonas Siegenthaler2 min
  • 16:46NJDP.K. Subban · Trippingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NJD goalCOL goalFinal: NJD 100%

Biggest swing: Nathan Bastian, 3rd 13:04 — NJD 58% → 87%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Bastian · Goal · xG 0.31A. Johnsson · Missed · xG 0.23T. Tatar · Goal · xG 0.22Y. Sharangovich · Goal · xG 0.19J. Hughes · On goal · xG 0.19J. Hughes · On goal · xG 0.18Y. Sharangovich · On goal · xG 0.15M. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.15J. Hughes · On goal · xG 0.14J. Vesey · On goal · xG 0.12D. Severson · On goal · xG 0.12N. Bastian · Missed · xG 0.12D. Mercer · On goal · xG 0.12D. Mercer · On goal · xG 0.11D. Mercer · On goal · xG 0.11J. Vesey · On goal · xG 0.10D. Mercer · On goal · xG 0.10A. Johnsson · On goal · xG 0.10T. Tatar · On goal · xG 0.09J. Vesey · Missed · xG 0.08D. Severson · On goal · xG 0.08D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.08J. Hughes · On goal · xG 0.08Y. Sharangovich · Missed · xG 0.07A. Johnsson · On goal · xG 0.06N. Bastian · Missed · xG 0.06D. Severson · Goal · xG 0.06J. Hughes · On goal · xG 0.06J. Hughes · Missed · xG 0.05P. Zacha · Missed · xG 0.05P. Zacha · On goal · xG 0.05R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.05N. Bastian · Missed · xG 0.04J. Siegenthaler · On goal · xG 0.04J. Bratt · On goal · xG 0.04P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.04D. Hamilton · Missed · xG 0.04J. Hughes · Missed · xG 0.03J. Hughes · On goal · xG 0.03D. Hamilton · Missed · xG 0.03J. Boqvist · On goal · xG 0.03T. Smith · Goal · xG 0.03P. Zacha · Missed · xG 0.03D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.03T. Tatar · On goal · xG 0.03R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.02D. Hamilton · Missed · xG 0.02P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.02J. Siegenthaler · Missed · xG 0.02T. Tatar · On goal · xG 0.02J. Siegenthaler · On goal · xG 0.02J. Vesey · On goal · xG 0.02J. Boqvist · On goal · xG 0.02D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.01N. Bastian · On goal · xG 0.01J. Vesey · Missed · xG 0.01D. Severson · On goal · xG 0.00D. Mercer · On goal · xG 0.00
NJD5 G · 4.3 xG · 58 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsNJD
2.93 G
All situations
4 G4.3
1.61 G
Even strength
2 G3.3
1.32 G
Power play
2 G0.8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL32%68%NJD

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.86 – 4.06

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsNJD
26
Shots on goal
43
48%
Faceoffs
52%
2/4
Power play
2/4
8
Penalty minutes
8
9
Hits
17
9
Blocked shots
14
11
Giveaways
11
7
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD112-130.32140—25:45
96M. RantanenR112-210.271023322:50
7D. ToewsD011-140.26000—22:50
49S. GirardD000-110.12120—22:13
29N. MacKinnonC123-140.820104721:05
92G. LandeskogL011-220.200125020:03
91N. KadriC000-200.210025520:00
3J. JohnsonD000000.00202—16:36
37J. CompherL000-110.030002716:30
95A. BurakovskyL000010.03000—15:09
25L. O'ConnorR000000.00110—14:44
18A. NewhookC000020.041005014:39
13V. NichushkinR000030.51000—13:58
6E. JohnsonD000000.01200—13:42
28R. MurrayD000030.08000—13:21
43D. HelmC000000.0000010008:19
17T. JostC000010.020006707:51
16N. Aube-KubelR000000.00000—07:22
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35D. Kuemper(L)42384.9054.12+0.1257:53

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).