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Stars at Sabres
NHL

Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
▸5
Buffalo Sabres
4
FinalTV BSSW, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-4. The Stars came back from two goals down. The Sabres led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jason Robertson's goal at 16:28 of the third period, which took the Stars' chances from 56% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 4.0 to 2.4; shots on goal were DAL 47, BUF 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 74% of the time. Braden Holtby stopped 20 of 24 (.833), 1.6 goals below expected; Aaron Dell stopped 42 of 47 (.894), 1.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jason Robertson (2 G, 1 A), 2. Tyler Seguin (2 G, 1 A), 3. Jack Quinn (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    J. Robertson2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    DAL
    T. Seguin2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Quinn1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL113221213547
BUFBUF2102806424

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    R. Dahlin(7)
    A. Bjork (2), H. Jokiharju (5)
    backhandxG 0.13win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    2:47
  2. BUF
    J. Quinn(1)PPG
    R. Dahlin (18), T. Thompson (13)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +10 pts
    0-2
    6:37
  3. DAL
    J. Robertson(14)PPG
    J. Pavelski (23), J. Klingberg (17)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +11 pts
    1-2
    16:50

2nd period

  1. BUF
    D. Cozens(10)
    V. Olofsson (16), J. Quinn (1)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    1:09
  2. DAL
    R. Hintz(16)PPG
    J. Robertson (20), J. Klingberg (18)
    deflectedxG 0.11win prob +14 pts
    2-3
    5:26
  3. DAL
    T. Seguin(11)
    D. Gurianov (10), J. Klingberg (19)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +19 pts
    3-3
    11:40
  4. BUF
    A. Tuch(3)
    R. Dahlin (19), H. Jokiharju (6)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +20 pts
    3-4
    14:13

3rd period

  1. DAL
    T. Seguin(12)PPG
    R. Hintz (14), J. Klingberg (20)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +27 pts
    4-4
    12:23
  2. DAL
    J. Robertson(15)PPG
    T. Seguin (6), J. Pavelski (24)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +36 pts
    5-4
    16:28

Penalties

DAL 6 PIM·BUF 10 PIM

1st

  • 6:21DALJani Hakanpää · Cross checkingdrawn by Mark Jankowski2 min
  • 16:38BUFRobert Hagg · Hookingdrawn by Luke Glendening2 min

2nd

  • 3:49BUFMark Pysyk · Slashingdrawn by Roope Hintz2 min
  • 14:21BUFRasmus Dahlin · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 16:45DALEsa Lindell · Interferencedrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 19:32DALserved by R. Damiani · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 11:49BUFCody Eakin · Slashingdrawn by Miro Heiskanen2 min
  • 15:36BUFRasmus Asplund · Trippingdrawn by Jacob Peterson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalDAL goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Jason Robertson, 3rd 16:28 — DAL 56% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.24C. Eakin · On goal · xG 0.21D. Cozens · Goal · xG 0.19T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.16T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.15T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.14R. Dahlin · Goal · xG 0.13J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.12J. Hayden · Missed · xG 0.11J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.11J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.10J. Hayden · On goal · xG 0.10R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.09A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.06J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.06J. Quinn · Goal · xG 0.06V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.05A. Bjork · On goal · xG 0.05J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.05T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.03R. Hagg · Missed · xG 0.03P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.02M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.02H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.02R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.01V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.01D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.01P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.01A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF4 G · 2.4 xG · 31 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsBUF
4.05 G
All situations
4 G2.4
3.11 G
Even strength
3 G2.1
0.94 G
Power play
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL74%26%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.90 – 2.33

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsBUF
47
Shots on goal
24
58%
Faceoffs
42%
4/5
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
10
23
Hits
12
8
Blocked shots
14
4
Giveaways
6
3
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4M. HeiskanenD000-110.11100—27:18
20R. SuterD000-130.12110—26:57
23E. LindellD000-150.11112—22:24
3J. KlingbergD044-100.03000—21:28
91T. SeguinC213050.302006419:24
21J. RobertsonL213-150.55110—19:01
16J. PavelskiC022-120.321103018:05
24R. HintzC112-150.371007117:39
34D. GurianovR011080.73100—17:29
14J. BennL000040.502104416:44
11L. GlendeningC000000.002106416:12
18M. RafflL000020.10100—15:47
12R. FaksaC000040.303007015:02
2J. HakanpääD000000.02222—11:28
40J. PetersonC000-100.24000008:26
13R. DamianiC000-120.16200008:06
44J. HanleyD000000.00100—08:01
25J. KivirantaL000-110.01100—06:19
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70B. Holtby(W)24204.8332.35-1.6559:54

Season series

DAL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).