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Sabres at Stars
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
2
Dallas Stars
▸4
FinalTV BSSW, MSG-B·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-2. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Michael Raffl's goal at 16:16 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 74% to 89%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 3.2 to 2.8; shots on goal were BUF 40, DAL 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Craig Anderson stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 0.8 goals below expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 38 of 40 (.950), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Michael Raffl (2 G), 2. Jake Oettinger (38 saves, .950), 3. Thomas Harley (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    M. Raffl2 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    J. Oettinger38 saves, .950
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    T. Harley1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF06111123240
DALDAL1182815431

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    M. Raffl(5)
    R. Faksa (10), M. Heiskanen (25)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    12:35

2nd period

  1. DAL
    R. Hintz(23)
    J. Pavelski (34), T. Harley (1)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    6:34
  2. BUF
    T. Thompson(22)
    J. Skinner (17), M. Samuelsson (2)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    8:23
  3. DAL
    M. Raffl(6)
    T. Seguin (13), A. Radulov (15)
    backhandxG 0.07win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    16:16

3rd period

  1. DAL
    D. Gurianov(8)PPG
    E. Lindell (13), J. Benn (14)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +3 pts
    1-4
    8:56
  2. BUF
    C. Eakin(4)
    R. Hagg (6)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +1 pts
    2-4
    14:02

Penalties

BUF 6 PIM·DAL 2 PIM

1st

  • 15:43BUFCasey Fitzgerald · Holdingdrawn by Michael Raffl2 min

2nd

  • 3:03DALJacob Peterson · Holding the stickdrawn by Cody Eakin2 min

3rd

  • 7:01BUFTage Thompson · Slashingdrawn by Jani Hakanpää2 min
  • 9:19BUFJeff Skinner · Trippingdrawn by Jani Hakanpää2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalBUF goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Michael Raffl, 2nd 16:16 — DAL 74% → 89%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.21J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.20M. Raffl · On goal · xG 0.20J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.17R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.17R. Hintz · Goal · xG 0.16R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.15R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.14R. Tufte · On goal · xG 0.14T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.13L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.11L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.11T. Harley · Missed · xG 0.11L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.10J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.10R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.08D. Gurianov · Goal · xG 0.08J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.07J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.07J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.07M. Raffl · Goal · xG 0.07T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.06J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.06R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.06J. Klingberg · Missed · xG 0.06M. Raffl · Goal · xG 0.05J. Pavelski · Missed · xG 0.05J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.04R. Tufte · On goal · xG 0.03J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.03J. Klingberg · Missed · xG 0.02J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.02R. Suter · On goal · xG 0.02J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.01J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.01T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.01T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Hakanpää · Missed · xG 0.01T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.01T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL4 G · 3.2 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsDAL
2.82 G
All situations
4 G3.2
2.02 G
Even strength
3 G3.1
0.60 G
Power play
1 G0.2
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF43%57%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.73 – 3.16

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsDAL
40
Shots on goal
31
43%
Faceoffs
57%
0/1
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
15
Hits
15
5
Blocked shots
18
10
Giveaways
13
9
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD000040.25010—26:13
78J. BrysonD000000.00220—20:32
23M. SamuelssonD011-120.28210—20:10
45C. FitzgeraldD000+110.04402—19:07
21K. OkposoR000050.20000—18:49
89A. TuchR000-110.04000—16:58
72T. ThompsonC101-280.561021416:41
20C. EakinC101+120.250005016:17
13M. PysykD000-100.00000—16:05
24D. CozensC000020.180006315:21
37C. MittelstadtC000020.130003014:59
53J. SkinnerL011-130.280025014:37
8R. HaggD011-130.03100—14:12
71V. OlofssonL000040.25000—14:07
19P. KrebsC000010.12000013:58
96A. BjorkL000010.15010—12:56
74R. AsplundC000000.00000012:51
15J. HaydenC000010.01500012:00
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41C. Anderson(L)31274.8713.21-0.7958:12

Season series

DAL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).