Skip to content
Maple Leafs at Blues
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at St. Louis Blues

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸6
St. Louis Blues
5
FinalTV NHLN, BSMW·Enterprise Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the St. Louis Blues 6-5. The lead changed hands 4 times. It was tied 4-4 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ilya Mikheyev's goal at 16:45 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 48% to 92%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.0 to 2.0; shots on goal were TOR 40, STL 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Jack Campbell stopped 20 of 25 (.800), 3.0 goals below expected; Jordan Binnington stopped 34 of 40 (.850), 3.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mitch Marner (1 G, 1 A), 2. Ryan O'Reilly (2 G), 3. Auston Matthews (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    STL
    R. O'Reilly2 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR314113213640
STLSTL11031114525

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. STL
    R. O'Reilly(7)
    I. Barbashev (17), O. Sundqvist (4)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    3:58
  2. TOR
    M. Bunting(8)
    A. Matthews (15)
    backhandxG 0.26win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    5:43
  3. TOR
    M. Marner(7)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.12win prob +13 pts
    2-1
    7:32
  4. TOR
    J. Tavares(15)
    A. Kerfoot (20), M. Rielly (26)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +16 pts
    3-1
    9:27

2nd period

  1. STL
    R. O'Reilly(8)
    N. Mikkola (3)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +16 pts
    3-2
    3:40
  2. STL
    B. Saad(13)
    R. Thomas (25)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +17 pts
    3-3
    5:20
  3. TOR
    T. Liljegren(1)
    T. Dermott (3), P. Engvall (7)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +18 pts
    4-3
    8:18
  4. STL
    R. Thomas(5)
    J. Kyrou (24), B. Saad (6)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +22 pts
    4-4
    16:13

3rd period

  1. STL
    N. Mikkola(3)
    J. Kyrou (25), J. Faulk (10)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +25 pts
    4-5
    3:25
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(25)PPG
    M. Marner (16), M. Rielly (27)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +27 pts
    5-5
    11:24
  3. TOR
    I. Mikheyev(5)
    P. Engvall (8)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +43 pts
    6-5
    16:45

Penalties

TOR 6 PIM·STL 8 PIM

1st

  • 11:10TORIlya Mikheyev · Trippingdrawn by Jordan Kyrou2 min
  • 17:32STLTorey Krug · Roughingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 17:32TORMichael Bunting · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Niko Mikkola2 min

2nd

  • 13:19STLTorey Krug · Holding the stickdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min
  • 18:56STLJordan Kyrou · Holdingdrawn by William Nylander2 min

3rd

  • 10:30STLKlim Kostin · Holdingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min
  • 19:54TORMorgan Rielly · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalTOR goalFinal: STL 0%

Biggest swing: Ilya Mikheyev, 3rd 16:45 — TOR 48% → 92%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.17R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.15B. Saad · Goal · xG 0.14N. Mikkola · Goal · xG 0.14D. Joshua · On goal · xG 0.12J. Neal · On goal · xG 0.11R. Thomas · Goal · xG 0.11J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.09A. Toropchenko · Missed · xG 0.09B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.08J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.08O. Sundqvist · On goal · xG 0.08T. Bozak · On goal · xG 0.07M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.07R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.07A. Toropchenko · On goal · xG 0.07J. Faulk · Missed · xG 0.06N. Walker · On goal · xG 0.05I. Barbashev · Missed · xG 0.04S. Perunovich · On goal · xG 0.03B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.03T. Bozak · On goal · xG 0.03N. Mikkola · Missed · xG 0.02R. Bortuzzo · Missed · xG 0.02R. Bortuzzo · On goal · xG 0.01J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.01T. Krug · Missed · xG 0.01J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.00J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.00J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.00N. Walker · On goal · xG 0.00
STL5 G · 2.0 xG · 31 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsSTL
3.06 G
All situations
5 G2.0
2.65 G
Even strength
5 G1.5
0.41 G
Power play
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR68%32%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.98 – 1.96

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsSTL
40
Shots on goal
25
61%
Faceoffs
39%
1/3
Power play
0/2
6
Penalty minutes
8
13
Hits
24
10
Blocked shots
10
9
Giveaways
5
9
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD022+130.03212—27:41
88W. NylanderR000020.22100—22:02
34A. MatthewsC112080.481205321:29
78T. BrodieD000-100.00020—21:23
91J. TavaresC101+160.731106721:19
16M. MarnerR112020.23100—20:52
8J. MuzzinD000040.12300—19:46
37T. LiljegrenD101030.08210—19:37
15A. KerfootC011-130.16010017:58
38R. SandinD000-100.00000—15:23
64D. KampfC000-110.060005815:00
58M. BuntingL101+130.440025014:18
65I. MikheyevR101+120.17002—14:08
47P. EngvallL022+120.1500010012:54
23T. DermottD011+100.00100—10:58
19J. SpezzaC000000.001106307:43
24W. SimmondsR000-110.11000—07:34
43K. CliffordL000-100.01010—06:16
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
36J. Campbell(W)25205.8001.97-3.0359:36

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).