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Blues at Maple Leafs
NHL

St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
St. Louis Blues
▸6
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
FinalTV NHLN, BSMW·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-3. The Blues scored first and never trailed. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brandon Saad's goal at 4:38 of the third period, which took the Blues' chances from 48% to 75%. Expected goals favored the Blues, 3.3 to 2.6; shots on goal were STL 34, TOR 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Ville Husso stopped 34 of 37 (.919); Jack Campbell stopped 28 of 33 (.848), 2.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Pavel Buchnevich (2 G), 2. William Nylander (2 G), 3. David Perron (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    P. Buchnevich2 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    W. Nylander2 G
  3. ★★★
    STL
    D. Perron2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
STLSTL212112310634
TORTOR19212016337

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. STL
    P. Buchnevich(17)
    J. Kyrou (26), R. Thomas (31)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    2:58
  2. STL
    K. Kostin(4)
    T. Bozak (7), J. Walman (3)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    11:40
  3. TOR
    W. Nylander(18)
    A. Kerfoot (26), J. Tavares (29)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    15:33

2nd period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(19)
    A. Kerfoot (27), J. Holl (6)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +17 pts
    2-2
    5:30
  2. STL
    B. Schenn(14)
    J. Faulk (17), O. Sundqvist (10)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +17 pts
    3-2
    5:59
  3. TOR
    T. Brodie(4)
    D. Kampf (10), O. Kase (10)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +22 pts
    3-3
    17:44

3rd period

  1. STL
    B. Saad(16)
    D. Perron (14), C. Parayko (15)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +27 pts
    4-3
    4:38
  2. STL
    R. O'Reilly(11)
    N. Mikkola (6), D. Perron (15)
    deflectedxG 0.07win prob +15 pts
    5-3
    10:50
  3. STL
    P. Buchnevich(18)EN
    R. Thomas (32)
    wristxG 0.82win prob +1 pts
    6-3
    16:43

Penalties

STL 4 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

1st

  • 17:27TORserved by W. Nylander · Too many men on the ice2 min

2nd

  • 10:57STLTorey Krug · Roughingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 10:57STLTorey Krug · Roughingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 10:57TORMichael Bunting · Roughingdrawn by Torey Krug2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalSTL goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Brandon Saad, 3rd 4:38 — STL 48% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.20A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.15A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.13I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.11A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.11M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.11R. Sandin · Missed · xG 0.10T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.10M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.09M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.09J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.09W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.08O. Kase · Missed · xG 0.08J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.07P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.06I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.06P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.06M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.06A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.05J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.05W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.05M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.05W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.05M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.04J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.04D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.04A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.04T. Brodie · Goal · xG 0.03J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.03I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.03O. Kase · On goal · xG 0.03M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.03M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.03A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.03M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.03D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.02J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.02T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.02D. Kampf · Missed · xG 0.02T. Liljegren · On goal · xG 0.02M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.02M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.01T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.01J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.01T. Liljegren · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.01O. Kase · Missed · xG 0.01R. Sandin · Missed · xG 0.01D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.01
TOR3 G · 2.6 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

STLvsTOR
3.35 G
All situations
3 G2.6
2.25 G
Even strength
3 G2.5
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
STL47%53%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.46 – 2.63

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

STLvsTOR
34
Shots on goal
37
38%
Faceoffs
62%
0/1
Power play
0/1
4
Penalty minutes
4
30
Hits
23
16
Blocked shots
8
17
Giveaways
13
11
Takeaways
14

Box score

every player line
St. Louis Blues skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55C. ParaykoD011+320.00020—25:41
72J. FaulkD011+120.05320—23:07
77N. MikkolaD011+210.03420—23:04
47T. KrugD000020.05154—20:55
18R. ThomasC022+120.311003719:38
25J. KyrouR011040.33000—18:25
89P. BuchnevichL202+171.35200—18:18
57D. PerronL022+110.05500—17:54
90R. O'ReillyC101+340.400002617:40
20B. SaadL101+120.18010—17:25
49I. BarbashevL000+100.00410—16:46
70O. SundqvistC011+110.201006015:45
10B. SchennC101-130.234002915:31
41R. BortuzzoD000000.00320—12:36
46J. WalmanD011010.02100—12:35
21T. BozakC011+110.020108608:22
37K. KostinC101010.08100007:29
22L. BrownC000000.00000006:49
St. Louis Blues goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35V. Husso(W)37343.9192.64-0.3660:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).