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Predators at Capitals
NHL

Nashville Predators at Washington Capitals

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
3
Washington Capitals
▸5
FinalTV NBCSWA, BSSO·Capital One Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the Nashville Predators 5-3. The Capitals scored first and never trailed. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Evgeny Kuznetsov's goal at 14:24 of the third period, which took the Capitals' chances from 46% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Capitals, 4.1 to 1.8; shots on goal were NSH 20, WSH 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 74% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 32 of 36 (.889), 0.9 goals below expected; Ilya Samsonov stopped 17 of 20 (.850), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Evgeny Kuznetsov (1 G), 2. John Carlson (1 G, 3 A), 3. Yakov Trenin (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WSH
    E. Kuznetsov1 G
  2. ★★
    WSH
    J. Carlson1 G, 3 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    Y. Trenin1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH063806320
WSHWSH311011215537

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. WSH
    L. Eller(6)
    J. Carlson (21), A. Ovechkin (26)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    3:15
  2. WSH
    J. Carlson(7)
    N. Backstrom (2), D. Orlov (11)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    13:11
  3. WSH
    N. Dowd(4)
    C. Hagelin (5), M. Kempny (1)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +9 pts
    0-3
    18:52

2nd period

  1. NSH
    Y. Trenin(6)
    T. Jeannot (10), D. Fabbro (7)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +9 pts
    1-3
    1:23
  2. NSH
    L. Kunin(5)
    E. Tolvanen (7), B. Harpur (1)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +11 pts
    2-3
    7:03
  3. NSH
    F. Forsberg(14)
    D. Fabbro (8), M. Granlund (23)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +18 pts
    3-3
    7:38

3rd period

  1. WSH
    E. Kuznetsov(10)SHG
    T. Oshie (8), J. Carlson (22)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +38 pts
    3-4
    14:24
  2. WSH
    C. Hagelin(2)EN
    D. Orlov (12), J. Carlson (23)
    wristxG 0.93win prob +5 pts
    3-5
    18:57

Penalties

NSH 41 PIM·WSH 27 PIM

1st

  • 7:44NSHMichael McCarron · Interferencedrawn by Garnet Hathaway2 min
  • 16:03NSHRyan Johansen · Slashingdrawn by Michal Kempny2 min
  • 19:21NSHMatt Benning · Roughingdrawn by Garnet Hathaway2 min
  • 19:21WSHGarnet Hathaway · High stickingdrawn by Matt Benning2 min
  • 19:21WSHAlexander Alexeyev · Roughingdrawn by Matt Benning2 min

2nd

  • 4:27NSHMark Borowiecki · Instigatordrawn by Tom Wilson2 min
  • 4:27NSHMark Borowiecki · Fightingdrawn by Tom Wilson5 min
  • 4:27NSHMark Borowiecki · Misconduct10 min
  • 4:27WSHTom Wilson · Fightingdrawn by Mark Borowiecki5 min
  • 13:00NSHBen Harpur · Roughingdrawn by Dmitry Orlov2 min
  • 13:00WSHDmitry Orlov · Roughingdrawn by Ben Harpur2 min
  • 16:35NSHMatt Benning · Roughingdrawn by Garnet Hathaway2 min

3rd

  • 6:15NSHDante Fabbro · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 8:24WSHTom Wilson · Trippingdrawn by Mikael Granlund2 min
  • 12:18NSHMikael Granlund · Cross checkingdrawn by Evgeny Kuznetsov2 min
  • 13:44WSHTom Wilson · Trippingdrawn by Alexandre Carrier2 min
  • 19:31WSHMichal Kempny · Cross checkingdrawn by Tanner Jeannot2 min
  • 19:31NSHMichael McCarron · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:31WSHTom Wilson · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WSH goalNSH goalFinal: WSH 100%

Biggest swing: Evgeny Kuznetsov, 3rd 14:24 — WSH 46% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Hagelin · Goal · xG 0.93T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.18N. Dowd · Goal · xG 0.18A. Protas · On goal · xG 0.17G. Hathaway · On goal · xG 0.15C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.14C. Hagelin · On goal · xG 0.13L. Eller · Missed · xG 0.12N. Backstrom · Missed · xG 0.10E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.10T. Oshie · On goal · xG 0.10T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.10C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.10E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.09J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.09G. Hathaway · On goal · xG 0.09E. Kuznetsov · Missed · xG 0.08A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.08A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.08L. Eller · Goal · xG 0.08G. Hathaway · On goal · xG 0.07E. Kuznetsov · Missed · xG 0.06L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.06E. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.06L. Eller · Missed · xG 0.06N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.06N. Dowd · On goal · xG 0.05A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.05A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.05G. Hathaway · Missed · xG 0.05E. Kuznetsov · Goal · xG 0.05J. Carlson · Goal · xG 0.05A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.05N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.03N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.03J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.03A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.03C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.03N. Backstrom · Missed · xG 0.02A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.02J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Irwin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Irwin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.01L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.00D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.00M. Irwin · On goal · xG 0.00
WSH5 G · 4.1 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsWSH
1.83 G
All situations
4 G4.1
1.33 G
Even strength
3 G1.5
0.50 G
Power play
0 G1.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH26%74%WSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.76 – 3.13

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsWSH
20
Shots on goal
37
56%
Faceoffs
44%
0/4
Power play
0/6
41
Penalty minutes
27
25
Hits
20
17
Blocked shots
14
4
Giveaways
5
11
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
64M. GranlundC011-200.001026225:18
14M. EkholmD000010.02130—24:52
45A. CarrierD000-300.10130—23:40
5M. BenningD000010.03004—19:44
95M. DucheneC000-100.16020018:51
9F. ForsbergL101-120.24000—18:29
17B. HarpurD011-100.02112—17:45
92R. JohansenC000030.471125617:30
57D. FabbroD022+110.03122—17:23
84T. JeannotL011010.035005017:16
13Y. TreninC101+140.37300014:33
47M. McCarronC000+120.0722125013:30
11L. KuninC101+110.10120012:22
28E. TolvanenR011-110.06200—11:50
90M. BorowieckiD000020.010117—10:55
21N. CousinsC000-200.002005008:07
25M. OlivierR000-200.00300—07:25
26P. TomasinoR000-210.0610010006:40
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(L)36324.8893.13-0.8759:16

Season series

WSH leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).