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Devils at Sabres
NHL

New Jersey Devils at Buffalo Sabres

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New Jersey Devils
▸4
Buffalo Sabres
3
FinalTV MSG+ 2, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The New Jersey Devils beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-3. The Devils scored first and never trailed. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jack Hughes's goal at 4:28 of the third period, which took the Devils' chances from 48% to 75%. Expected goals favored the Devils, 2.7 to 2.0; shots on goal were NJD 42, BUF 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Devils win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 19 of 22 (.864), 0.9 goals below expected; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 38 of 42 (.905), 1.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jack Hughes (1 G, 2 A), 2. Tage Thompson (2 G), 3. Jesper Bratt (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NJD
    J. Hughes1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    T. Thompson2 G
  3. ★★★
    NJD
    J. Bratt1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NJDNJD211018213442
BUFBUF0321019322

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NJD
    D. Hamilton(7)PPG
    J. Hughes (4), N. Hischier (14)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +8 pts
    1-0
    4:43
  2. NJD
    J. Bratt(9)
    P. Subban (10), J. Hughes (5)
    wristxG 0.41win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    11:48

2nd period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(11)
    A. Tuch (1), R. Dahlin (13)
    deflectedxG 0.09win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    0:33
  2. BUF
    T. Thompson(12)
    R. Dahlin (14)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    3:17

3rd period

  1. NJD
    J. Hughes(6)
    Y. Sharangovich (7), J. Bratt (17)
    backhandxG 0.16win prob +27 pts
    3-2
    4:28
  2. NJD
    Y. Sharangovich(5)
    T. Smith (8), J. Bratt (18)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +17 pts
    4-2
    6:50
  3. BUF
    E. Prow(1)
    V. Olofsson (13), M. Pysyk (6)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +10 pts
    4-3
    14:38

Penalties

NJD 7 PIM·BUF 19 PIM

1st

  • 4:01BUFKyle Okposo · High stickingdrawn by Ryan Graves2 min
  • 14:56BUFBrett Murray · Instigatordrawn by Jonas Siegenthaler2 min
  • 14:56BUFBrett Murray · Fightingdrawn by Jonas Siegenthaler5 min
  • 14:56BUFBrett Murray · Misconductdrawn by Jonas Siegenthaler10 min
  • 14:56NJDJonas Siegenthaler · Fightingdrawn by Brett Murray5 min

2nd

  • 10:03NJDDamon Severson · Trippingdrawn by Victor Olofsson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalNJD goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Jack Hughes, 3rd 4:28 — NJD 48% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.23E. Prow · Goal · xG 0.23V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.18M. Pysyk · Missed · xG 0.17T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.16C. Eakin · On goal · xG 0.11J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.10K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.10R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.09T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.09T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.08K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.08B. Murray · On goal · xG 0.06R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.05T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.05K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.03W. Butcher · On goal · xG 0.03V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.03T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.03A. Ruotsalainen · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02W. Butcher · On goal · xG 0.02W. Butcher · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.02K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02W. Butcher · On goal · xG 0.01C. Fitzgerald · On goal · xG 0.01C. Eakin · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF3 G · 2.0 xG · 29 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NJDvsBUF
2.74 G
All situations
3 G2.0
2.53 G
Even strength
3 G1.9
0.21 G
Power play
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NJD62%38%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.65 – 2.04

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NJDvsBUF
42
Shots on goal
22
51%
Faceoffs
49%
1/2
Power play
0/1
7
Penalty minutes
19
6
Hits
17
13
Blocked shots
15
3
Giveaways
8
3
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
New Jersey Devils skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
71J. SiegenthalerD000-230.05225—22:21
28D. SeversonD000-240.11112—21:37
7D. HamiltonD101-140.28010—20:17
33R. GravesD000-110.02050—19:11
76P. SubbanD011+350.09000—17:59
86J. HughesC123+360.500002517:52
37P. ZachaC000-250.24000017:03
13N. HischierC011-220.150006716:40
24T. SmithD011+310.01010—16:38
63J. BrattL123+310.41000—16:06
20M. McLeodC000000.000005014:59
59J. KuokkanenC000-120.05100014:54
14N. BastianR000000.0320010014:29
70J. BoqvistC000-210.09000014:26
17Y. SharangovichC112+340.51000014:16
11A. JohnssonL000-110.02000—13:31
18D. MercerC000-100.000204313:16
67M. StudenicR000020.11010—12:25
New Jersey Devils goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29M. Blackwood(W)22193.8642.05-0.9560:00

Season series

NJD leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).