Maple Leafs at Islanders 3-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Toronto Maple Leafs

▸3

New York Islanders

FinalTV MSG+, SNO·UBS Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the New York Islanders 3-0. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ondrej Kase's goal at 2:00 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 72% to 90%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.7 to 2.7; shots on goal were TOR 40, NYI 20. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 77% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 20 of 20 (1.000), 2.7 goals saved above expected; Ilya Sorokin stopped 37 of 40 (.925), 1.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Mitch Marner (2 G), 2. Joseph Woll (20 saves, 1.000), 3. Ondrej Kase (1 G).

Three stars

★
M. Marner2 G
★★
J. Woll20 saves, 1.000
★★★
O. Kase1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	112	013	215	340
NYI	06	07	07	020

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

M. Marner(5)SHG
J. Muzzin (5)
backhandxG 0.18win prob +10 pts
1-0
3:31

3rd period

O. Kase(5)
D. Kampf (3), N. Ritchie (3)
snapxG 0.18win prob +18 pts
2-0
2:00
M. Marner(6)
M. Bunting (5)
tip-inxG 0.13win prob +2 pts
3-0
13:29

Penalties

8 PIM·

8 PIM

1st

2:18Wayne Simmonds · Slashingdrawn by Cal Clutterbuck2 min
2:18Cal Clutterbuck · Holdingdrawn by Wayne Simmonds2 min
2:41Timothy Liljegren · Trippingdrawn by Noah Dobson2 min

2nd

10:53Scott Mayfield · Trippingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
14:04Kyle Palmieri · Holdingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min
15:40Jason Spezza · Trippingdrawn by Casey Cizikas2 min

3rd

8:08Zach Parise · Hookingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
10:00William Nylander · Trippingdrawn by Kyle Palmieri2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NYI

Biggest swing: Ondrej Kase, 3rd 2:00 — TOR 72% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 2.7 xG · 35 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 4.7 xG · 51 att NYI

0 G · 2.7 xG · 35 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

4.73 G
All situations: 0 G2.7; 3.72 G
Even strength: 0 G2.3; 0.40 G
Power play: 0 G0.5; 0.51 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

77%23%

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.67 – 2.74

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

40
Shots on goal: 20; 56%
Faceoffs: 44%; 0/3
Power play: 0/3; 8
Penalty minutes: 8; 12
Hits: 28; 11
Blocked shots: 12; 9
Giveaways: 9; 4
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
44M. RiellyD	0	0	0	0	3	0.13	0	0	0	—	24:37
8J. MuzzinD	0	1	1	+2	3	0.22	3	2	0	—	20:30
78T. BrodieD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	2	0	—	20:01
16M. MarnerR	2	0	2	+2	4	0.54	0	0	0	100	19:42
3J. HollD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	2	0	0	—	19:39
88W. NylanderR	0	0	0	0	1	0.35	0	1	2	—	18:18
34A. MatthewsC	0	0	0	+1	6	0.73	0	0	0	41	18:15
91J. TavaresC	0	0	0	0	3	0.35	0	0	0	69	18:10
38R. SandinD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.23	0	2	0	—	16:29
15A. KerfootC	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	0	1	0	0	16:16
64D. KampfC	0	1	1	+1	3	0.17	0	0	0	67	15:33
58M. BuntingL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.12	2	0	0	—	14:42
37T. LiljegrenD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.05	0	2	2	—	13:38
25O. KaseR	1	0	1	+1	5	0.54	0	0	0	—	13:01
19J. SpezzaC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	2	50	11:49
47P. EngvallL	0	0	0	0	3	0.59	1	0	0	—	10:57
20N. RitchieL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.04	3	0	0	—	10:48
24W. SimmondsR	0	0	0	0	3	0.58	0	0	2	—	09:41

Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
60J. Woll(W)	20	20	0	1.000	2.74	+2.74	59:54

Season series

TOR leads 3-0

Nov 213@0this game
Jan 223@1Final
Apr 172@4Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders

1st period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score