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Red Wings at Stars
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
2
Dallas Stars
▸5
FinalTV ESPN+, HULU·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Detroit Red Wings 5-2. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jason Robertson's goal at 3:48 of the third period, which took the Stars' chances from 77% to 93%. Expected goals were close — DET 2.3, DAL 2.5; shots on goal were DET 30, DAL 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 25 of 29 (.862), 1.9 goals below expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 28 of 30 (.933). Three stars: 1. Roope Hintz (1 G), 2. Ryan Suter (1 G), 3. Jake Oettinger (28 saves, .933).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    R. Hintz1 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    R. Suter1 G
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    J. Oettinger28 saves, .933

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DETDET04211015230
DALDAL11221226530

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    R. Suter(2)
    R. Faksa (4), J. Robertson (6)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    13:33

2nd period

  1. DAL
    J. Benn(3)
    M. Heiskanen (10)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    1:06
  2. DAL
    R. Hintz(3)
    E. Lindell (2)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +9 pts
    0-3
    7:24
  3. DET
    F. Zadina(3)
    S. Gagner (5), M. Staal (3)
    backhandxG 0.04win prob +8 pts
    1-3
    9:09
  4. DET
    D. Larkin(8)PPG
    M. Seider (11), L. Raymond (11)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +12 pts
    2-3
    14:39

3rd period

  1. DAL
    J. Robertson(2)
    J. Pavelski (5), J. Hakanpää (2)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.07win prob +16 pts
    2-4
    3:48
  2. DAL
    J. Robertson(3)EN
    L. Glendening (2)
    wristxG 0.45
    2-5
    18:23

Penalties

DET 2 PIM·DAL 2 PIM

1st

  • 7:33DETFilip Hronek · Hookingdrawn by Michael Raffl2 min

2nd

  • 14:26DALJohn Klingberg · Trippingdrawn by Robby Fabbri2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalDET goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Jason Robertson, 3rd 3:48 — DAL 77% → 93%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Robertson · Goal · xG 0.45M. Raffl · On goal · xG 0.26R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.14J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.11J. Benn · Goal · xG 0.10M. Raffl · Missed · xG 0.10R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.10R. Hintz · Goal · xG 0.09J. Peterson · On goal · xG 0.08R. Suter · Goal · xG 0.08J. Robertson · Goal · xG 0.07M. Raffl · Missed · xG 0.07J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.07E. Lindell · Missed · xG 0.06D. Gurianov · On goal · xG 0.06J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.06R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.06T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.06M. Raffl · On goal · xG 0.06J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.05J. Peterson · Missed · xG 0.05J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.04E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.04J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.04M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.03J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.03L. Glendening · Missed · xG 0.02J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.02J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.02J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.02J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.01D. Gurianov · On goal · xG 0.01M. Raffl · Missed · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.01J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.01J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.01A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.01J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.00T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.00E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL5 G · 2.5 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsDAL
2.32 G
All situations
4 G2.5
2.31 G
Even strength
4 G2.1
0.01 G
Power play
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET54%46%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.29 – 2.08

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsDAL
30
Shots on goal
30
52%
Faceoffs
48%
1/1
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
2
15
Hits
14
14
Blocked shots
15
12
Giveaways
11
2
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
53M. SeiderD011-120.15140—24:27
65D. DeKeyserD000-150.28110—22:59
17F. HronekD000-220.02112—21:55
59T. BertuzziL000-100.06110—21:35
2N. LeddyD000-300.06010—21:17
24P. SuterC000010.080008519:49
23L. RaymondL011-230.3510010019:37
14R. FabbriC000040.22110017:47
18M. StaalD011000.03010—15:08
92V. NamestnikovC000-400.05010014:27
27M. RasmussenC000-320.382105614:24
28G. LindstromD000020.03000—14:12
11F. ZadinaR101010.05100—13:53
73A. ErneL000-330.17100—12:26
71D. LarkinC101-220.200001112:25
90J. VelenoC000010.063005011:47
37C. RowneyC000+110.06210011:37
89S. GagnerC011010.05010009:17
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39A. Nedeljkovic(L)29254.8622.09-1.9158:58

Season series

DAL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).