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Lightning at Islanders
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
2
New York Islanders
▸3
FinalTV USA, CBC·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-2. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Josh Bailey's goal at 5:30 of the second period, which took the Islanders' chances from 53% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 2.3 to 2.0; shots on goal were TBL 30, NYI 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 27 of 30 (.900), 0.7 goals below expected; Semyon Varlamov stopped 28 of 30 (.933). Three stars: 1. Matt Martin (1 G), 2. Josh Bailey (1 G), 3. Semyon Varlamov (28 saves, .933).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    M. Martin1 G
  2. ★★
    NYI
    J. Bailey1 G
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    S. Varlamov28 saves, .933

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL01109210230
NYINYI0431709330

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. NYI
    J. Bailey(6)
    B. Nelson (5), A. Beauvillier (8)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +17 pts
    0-1
    5:30
  2. NYI
    M. Barzal(6)
    C. Clutterbuck (2), A. Pelech (2)
    wristxG 0.27win prob +16 pts
    0-2
    13:46
  3. NYI
    M. Martin(1)
    C. Clutterbuck (3), A. Pelech (3)
    backhandxG 0.02win prob +7 pts
    0-3
    17:57

3rd period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(12)
    O. Palat (4), E. Cernak (8)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +5 pts
    1-3
    3:45
  2. TBL
    T. Johnson(2)
    N. Kucherov (19), R. McDonagh (5)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +14 pts
    2-3
    6:43

Penalties

TBL 8 PIM·NYI 4 PIM

1st

  • 12:34NYICal Clutterbuck · Roughingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min

2nd

  • 13:46TBLMikhail Sergachev · Cross checkingdrawn by Kyle Palmieri2 min
  • 13:46NYIKyle Palmieri · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Mikhail Sergachev2 min
  • 14:32TBLErik Cernak · Boardingdrawn by Anthony Beauvillier2 min
  • 17:57TBLserved by T. Johnson · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min

3rd

  • 18:48TBLVictor Hedman · Trippingdrawn by Cal Clutterbuck2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalTBL goalFinal: NYI 100%

Biggest swing: Josh Bailey, 2nd 5:30 — NYI 53% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.30M. Barzal · Goal · xG 0.27T. Zajac · On goal · xG 0.17C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.10M. Martin · Missed · xG 0.10B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.09B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.09C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.08M. Barzal · Missed · xG 0.08C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.07B. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.07C. Cizikas · On goal · xG 0.07B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.06K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.06K. Palmieri · Missed · xG 0.06B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.06C. Cizikas · On goal · xG 0.06T. Zajac · On goal · xG 0.05L. Komarov · On goal · xG 0.05A. Greene · On goal · xG 0.04C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.04K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.04J. Bailey · Goal · xG 0.03M. Martin · Missed · xG 0.03M. Martin · Goal · xG 0.02R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.02A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.02A. Greene · Missed · xG 0.02R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.02N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eberle · Missed · xG 0.02A. Beauvillier · Missed · xG 0.01N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.01S. Mayfield · Missed · xG 0.01N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.01C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.01A. Greene · Missed · xG 0.01J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.01C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.01N. Leddy · Missed · xG 0.01B. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.00L. Komarov · On goal · xG 0.00
NYI3 G · 2.3 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsNYI
2.02 G
All situations
3 G2.3
1.82 G
Even strength
3 G2.0
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL44%56%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.98 – 2.30

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsNYI
30
Shots on goal
30
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/1
Power play
0/3
8
Penalty minutes
4
42
Hits
36
10
Blocked shots
17
20
Giveaways
17
2
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD000-120.03012—25:02
27R. McDonaghD011+110.00420—23:24
98M. SergachevD000010.06302—22:17
86N. KucherovR011-120.21000—21:30
81E. CernakD011010.03402—19:21
18O. PalatL011000.062005018:57
21B. PointC101-120.151002918:42
37Y. GourdeC000020.202103516:21
19B. GoodrowC000040.232103315:50
71A. CirelliC000010.063005015:32
44J. RuttaD000-110.02110—15:27
17A. KillornL000010.10100—14:24
58D. SavardD000-100.00320—13:23
20B. ColemanL000030.25400—13:08
91S. StamkosC000-110.004106012:05
9T. JohnsonC101020.113005710:52
14P. MaroonL000020.11300—08:41
79R. ColtonC000040.362106707:45
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(L)30273.9002.32-0.6858:32

Series

TBL leads 4-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).