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Panthers at Lightning
NHL

Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Florida Panthers
▸5
Tampa Bay Lightning
3
FinalTV ESPN+, BSSUN+·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-3. The Panthers scored first and never trailed. The Panthers led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mathieu Joseph's goal at 1:53 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 11% to 27%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 3.2 to 1.9; shots on goal were FLA 32, TBL 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 28 of 31 (.903), 1.1 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 1.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Aleksander Barkov (1 A), 2. Sergei Bobrovsky (28 saves, .903), 3. Brayden Point (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    A. Barkov1 A
  2. ★★
    FLA
    S. Bobrovsky28 saves, .903
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    B. Point1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA311111110532
TBLTBL1151719331

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    B. Montour(6)
    S. Bennett (9)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    8:41
  2. FLA
    P. Hornqvist(14)PPG
    A. Barkov (27), N. Gusev (4)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +13 pts
    2-0
    12:31
  3. TBL
    B. Point(18)
    M. Sergachev (24), O. Palat (24)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    13:40
  4. FLA
    J. Huberdeau(15)
    M. Nutivaara (7), S. Bennett (10)
    wristxG 0.31win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    19:52

2nd period

  1. FLA
    F. Vatrano(15)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +9 pts
    4-1
    17:34
  2. TBL
    E. Cernak(3)
    B. Coleman (14), V. Hedman (32)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +8 pts
    4-2
    19:15

3rd period

  1. TBL
    M. Joseph(11)
    V. Hedman (33), B. Point (19)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +17 pts
    4-3
    1:53
  2. FLA
    A. Duclair(6)EN
    R. Gudas (6)
    wristxG 0.93win prob +3 pts
    5-3
    19:10

Penalties

FLA 4 PIM·TBL 6 PIM

1st

  • 4:57FLABrandon Montour · High stickingdrawn by Ross Colton2 min
  • 9:32FLAAleksander Barkov · Hookingdrawn by Blake Coleman2 min
  • 11:47TBLserved by P. Maroon · Too many men on the ice2 min

2nd

  • 9:14TBLTyler Johnson · Hookingdrawn by MacKenzie Weegar2 min
  • 15:01TBLTyler Johnson · Hookingdrawn by Owen Tippett2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalFLA goalFinal: TBL 0%

Biggest swing: Mathieu Joseph, 3rd 1:53 — TBL 11% → 27%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.14O. Palat · Missed · xG 0.14A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.12B. Point · On goal · xG 0.11A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.09R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.08A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.08B. Point · Goal · xG 0.08B. Goodrow · On goal · xG 0.07A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.07M. Joseph · Goal · xG 0.07A. Barré-Boulet · Missed · xG 0.07R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.06V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.05B. Point · On goal · xG 0.05D. Savard · On goal · xG 0.05R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.05A. Barré-Boulet · On goal · xG 0.05V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.04T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.04E. Cernak · Goal · xG 0.04D. Savard · On goal · xG 0.04M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.03A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.03E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.03B. Point · Missed · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.02D. Savard · Missed · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.02E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.02L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.01L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.01B. Point · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.01Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.01L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.01
TBL3 G · 1.9 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsTBL
3.24 G
All situations
3 G1.9
1.73 G
Even strength
3 G1.6
0.61 G
Power play
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA57%43%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.26 – 1.92

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsTBL
32
Shots on goal
31
43%
Faceoffs
57%
1/3
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
22
Hits
25
14
Blocked shots
9
2
Giveaways
4
4
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
52M. WeegarD000-100.04010—25:58
42G. ForslingD000-120.04130—25:23
16A. BarkovC011040.370125021:46
11J. HuberdeauL101+310.31200—18:46
62B. MontourD101+330.17022—18:38
21A. WennbergC000000.000002017:30
7R. GudasD011000.01510—17:28
97N. GusevL011030.26000—17:27
65M. NutivaaraD011+230.05020—16:08
91A. DuclairL101+331.01110—15:53
9S. BennettC022+310.065003815:40
19M. MarchmentL000020.13400—15:29
70P. HornqvistR101-120.24010—15:19
3K. YandleD000-120.06010—12:09
77F. VatranoR101020.1600010011:50
83J. LammikkoC000-220.06100011:07
71L. WallmarkC000-200.003005710:24
74O. TippettR000-120.28010—09:26
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
72S. Bobrovsky(W)31283.9031.92-1.0859:39

Season series

FLA leads 5-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).