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Panthers at Lightning
NHL

Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Florida Panthers
▸6
Tampa Bay Lightning
4
FinalTV FS-F, SUN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 6-4. The Lightning scored first; the Panthers answered. The Panthers led 5-4 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Anton Stralman's goal at 0:59 of the third period, which took the Panthers' chances from 71% to 89%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.0 to 2.2; shots on goal were FLA 21, TBL 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 63% of the time. Chris Driedger stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 1.0 goals below expected; Curtis McElhinney stopped 15 of 21 (.714), 3.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Aleksander Barkov (1 G, 1 A), 2. MacKenzie Weegar (1 A), 3. Alexander Volkov (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    A. Barkov1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    FLA
    M. Weegar1 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    A. Volkov2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA1104714621
TBLTBL16314011431

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    S. Stamkos(8)
    E. Cernak (3), O. Palat (6)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    6:24
  2. FLA
    J. Huberdeau(5)
    P. Hornqvist (6), M. Weegar (5)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    7:56

2nd period

  1. FLA
    O. Tippett(1)
    E. Luostarinen (4)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    4:59
  2. FLA
    F. Vatrano(4)Penalty shot
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.40win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    8:39
  3. FLA
    A. Duclair(1)
    A. Barkov (9), C. Verhaeghe (4)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.07win prob +10 pts
    4-1
    10:23
  4. TBL
    A. Volkov(2)
    R. McDonagh (4)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +9 pts
    4-2
    11:42
  5. FLA
    A. Barkov(5)
    C. Verhaeghe (5), A. Stralman (4)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +10 pts
    5-2
    12:36
  6. TBL
    A. Volkov(3)
    P. Maroon (3), G. Smith (3)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +9 pts
    5-3
    15:50
  7. TBL
    T. Johnson(4)
    M. Joseph (3), M. Sergachev (11)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +17 pts
    5-4
    16:38

3rd period

  1. FLA
    A. Stralman(1)
    J. Huberdeau (12), R. Gudas (2)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +18 pts
    6-4
    0:59

Penalties

FLA 18 PIM·TBL 16 PIM

1st

  • 8:54TBLTyler Johnson · Holdingdrawn by Jonathan Huberdeau2 min
  • 17:48FLAKeith Yandle · Interferencedrawn by Mathieu Joseph2 min

2nd

  • 0:47TBLErik Cernak · Trippingdrawn by Anthony Duclair2 min
  • 1:25FLAAaron Ekblad · Interferencedrawn by Blake Coleman2 min
  • 8:39TBLLuke Schenn · Ps tripping on breakawaydrawn by Frank Vatrano0 min
  • 18:14FLAAaron Ekblad · Hookingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min

3rd

  • 4:04FLACarter Verhaeghe · Fightingdrawn by Gemel Smith5 min
  • 4:04TBLGemel Smith · Fightingdrawn by Carter Verhaeghe5 min
  • 13:03TBLYanni Gourde · Fightingdrawn by Radko Gudas5 min
  • 13:03FLARadko Gudas · Fightingdrawn by Yanni Gourde5 min
  • 13:17TBLGemel Smith · Roughingdrawn by Aleksander Barkov2 min
  • 16:45FLAKeith Yandle · Slashingdrawn by Alex Killorn2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalFLA goalFinal: TBL 0%

Biggest swing: Anton Stralman, 3rd 0:59 — FLA 71% → 89%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.19A. Volkov · Goal · xG 0.18A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.16T. Johnson · Goal · xG 0.15T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.15B. Point · On goal · xG 0.14S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.13A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.12T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.11B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.10V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.10Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.10Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.10S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.09T. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.08P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.08B. Point · Missed · xG 0.07A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.07O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.07L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.06V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.05M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.05J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.05B. Point · On goal · xG 0.04V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.04V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.04E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.04R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.03A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.03A. Volkov · Goal · xG 0.02B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.02Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.02M. Joseph · Missed · xG 0.02E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.02J. Rutta · Missed · xG 0.02V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.02E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.02A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.02Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.01M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.01S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.01J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.01L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.01L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL4 G · 3.0 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsTBL
2.26 G
All situations
4 G3.0
1.36 G
Even strength
4 G2.5
1.00 G
Power play
0 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA37%63%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.21 – 2.96

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsTBL
21
Shots on goal
31
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/3
Power play
0/4
18
Penalty minutes
16
15
Hits
26
9
Blocked shots
7
0
Giveaways
1
0
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
52M. WeegarD011+300.00410—29:29
5A. EkbladD000030.11014—25:32
6A. StralmanD112+220.10010—23:47
21A. WennbergC000+200.000004320:54
16A. BarkovC112+120.190105419:32
70P. HornqvistR011+210.27020—18:02
3K. YandleD000-320.04004—17:38
7R. GudasD011+100.00815—16:42
23C. VerhaegheC022+110.201055016:31
11J. HuberdeauL112+220.161003316:12
27E. LuostarinenC011-100.060004014:33
91A. DuclairL101030.43000—14:17
77F. VatranoR101010.54110—12:45
83J. LammikkoC000-100.000003810:39
74O. TippettR101-110.04000—10:29
94R. LombergL000-100.00000—09:25
10B. ConnollyR000030.110105009:19
58N. JuulsenD000-100.00000—05:51
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60C. Driedger(W)31274.8712.96-1.0459:43

Season series

FLA leads 5-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).