Red Wings at Lightning 1-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Detroit Red Wings

Tampa Bay Lightning

▸2

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Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Detroit Red Wings 2-1. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Adam Erne's goal at 4:00 of the third period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 7% to 22%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 2.9 to 2.1; shots on goal were DET 26, TBL 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 63% of the time. Thomas Greiss stopped 27 of 29 (.931), 0.9 goals saved above expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 25 of 26 (.962), 1.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Victor Hedman (1 A), 2. Andrei Vasilevskiy (25 saves, .962), 3. Thomas Greiss (27 saves, .931).

Three stars

★
V. Hedman1 A
★★
A. Vasilevskiy25 saves, .962
★★★
T. Greiss27 saves, .931

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	07	07	112	126
TBL	214	06	09	229

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

R. Colton(4)
P. Maroon (11), A. Borgman (2)
wristxG 0.33win prob +12 pts
0-1
4:07
B. Point(16)
V. Hedman (29), O. Palat (21)
wristxG 0.12win prob +14 pts
0-2
7:26

3rd period

A. Erne(8)
F. Nielsen (5), D. Helm (4)
wristxG 0.17win prob +15 pts
1-2
4:00

Penalties

6 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

13:38served by F. Zadina · Too many men on the ice2 min
17:10Ryan McDonagh · Hookingdrawn by Givani Smith2 min
19:54Darren Helm · Trippingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min

2nd

15:58Adam Erne · Illegal check to headdrawn by Cal Foote2 min
17:53Yanni Gourde · High stickingdrawn by Frans Nielsen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: TBL

100%

Biggest swing: Adam Erne, 3rd 4:00 — DET 7% → 22%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 2.9 xG · 42 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 2.1 xG · 29 att TBL

2 G · 2.9 xG · 42 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.11 G
All situations: 2 G2.9; 1.91 G
Even strength: 2 G2.4; 0.20 G
Power play: 0 G0.4; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 71 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

37%63%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.09 – 2.81

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

26
Shots on goal: 29; 60%
Faceoffs: 40%; 0/2
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 4; 19
Hits: 24; 19
Blocked shots: 15; 2
Giveaways: 2; 5
Takeaways: 3

Box score

every player line

Detroit Red Wings skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
17F. HronekD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.09	1	0	0	—	24:42
24J. MerrillD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	3	0	—	22:46
22P. NemethD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.01	2	3	0	—	19:40
71D. LarkinC	0	0	0	0	1	0.11	4	0	0	38	19:13
27M. RasmussenC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.08	1	3	0	88	19:09
65D. DeKeyserD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	2	0	—	18:33
41L. GlendeningC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.25	2	1	0	82	18:32
11F. ZadinaR	0	0	0	0	2	0.13	0	1	0	—	17:08
14R. FabbriC	0	0	0	0	5	0.33	0	1	0	100	16:07
39A. ManthaR	0	0	0	-1	3	0.18	0	1	0	—	15:36
73A. ErneL	1	0	1	0	4	0.34	0	0	2	100	15:03
18M. StaalD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	14:51
92V. NamestnikovC	0	0	0	0	2	0.22	0	0	0	0	13:44
70T. StecherD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.05	1	0	0	—	13:24
81F. NielsenC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.02	1	1	0	0	12:36
43D. HelmC	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	1	2	2	0	12:18
48G. SmithR	0	0	0	-1	1	0.15	1	0	0	—	11:51
51V. FilppulaC	0	0	0	0	1	0.12	1	1	0	0	11:04

Detroit Red Wings goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
29T. Greiss(L)	29	27	2	.931	2.86	+0.86	58:16

Season series

TBL leads 5-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning

1st period

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score