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Lightning at Red Wings
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸4
Detroit Red Wings
3
Final/OTTV ESPN+, FS-D·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Detroit Red Wings 4-3 in overtime, Blake Coleman scoring at 2:17. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Red Wings led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Blake Coleman's goal at 2:17 of overtime, which took the Lightning's chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 2.5 to 1.6; shots on goal were TBL 29, DET 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 20 of 23 (.870), 1.4 goals below expected; Thomas Greiss stopped 25 of 29 (.862), 1.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Erik Cernak (1 G, 1 A), 2. Blake Coleman (1 G, 1 A), 3. Dylan Larkin (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    E. Cernak1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    B. Coleman1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    DET
    D. Larkin1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TBLTBL213061911429
DETDET162120401323

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    A. Erne(3)PPG
    F. Zadina (6), F. Hronek (11)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +6 pts
    0-1
    3:04
  2. TBL
    B. Point(8)PPG
    O. Palat (11), V. Hedman (20)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +11 pts
    1-1
    12:29
  3. TBL
    T. Johnson(5)
    B. Coleman (6), E. Cernak (6)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    13:04

2nd period

  1. DET
    P. Nemeth(2)
    S. Gagner (4), V. Namestnikov (5)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +18 pts
    2-2
    6:58
  2. DET
    D. Larkin(5)
    R. Fabbri (6), F. Hronek (12)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +18 pts
    2-3
    9:04

3rd period

  1. TBL
    E. Cernak(1)
    P. Maroon (5)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +30 pts
    3-3
    9:40

Overtime

  1. TBL
    B. Coleman(5)
    T. Johnson (7), M. Sergachev (16)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +51 pts
    4-3
    2:17

Penalties

TBL 11 PIM·DET 11 PIM

1st

  • 2:15TBLSteven Stamkos · High sticking double minordrawn by Christian Djoos4 min
  • 6:32DETChristian Djoos · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 11:21DETMarc Staal · Interferencedrawn by Ondrej Palat2 min
  • 15:42DETDarren Helm · Hookingdrawn by Tyler Johnson2 min

2nd

  • 15:31TBLErik Cernak · Fightingdrawn by Anthony Mantha5 min
  • 15:31DETAnthony Mantha · Fightingdrawn by Erik Cernak5 min

3rd

  • 2:00TBLAnthony Cirelli · Hookingdrawn by Jon Merrill2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalTBL goalFinal: DET 0%

Biggest swing: Blake Coleman, OT 2:17 — TBL 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.19M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.15A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.14V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.11A. Erne · Goal · xG 0.10B. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.10D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.07R. Fabbri · Missed · xG 0.07F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.06B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.06D. Larkin · Goal · xG 0.05R. Fabbri · Missed · xG 0.05D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.04D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.04S. Gagner · On goal · xG 0.04C. Djoos · On goal · xG 0.04D. DeKeyser · On goal · xG 0.03D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.03D. Helm · On goal · xG 0.03B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.03D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.03M. Brome · Missed · xG 0.02A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.02P. Nemeth · Goal · xG 0.02B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.02B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.02C. Djoos · Missed · xG 0.01D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.01F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.01L. Glendening · Missed · xG 0.01
DET3 G · 1.6 xG · 30 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsDET
2.54 G
All situations
3 G1.6
1.93 G
Even strength
2 G1.4
0.71 G
Power play
1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL68%32%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.53 – 1.58

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsDET
29
Shots on goal
23
50%
Faceoffs
50%
1/3
Power play
1/3
11
Penalty minutes
11
16
Hits
16
12
Blocked shots
7
3
Giveaways
7
2
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD011020.14020—26:16
27R. McDonaghD000+110.02100—22:51
21B. PointC101-120.330202520:24
81E. CernakD112+130.09105—20:06
91S. StamkosC000-110.103046019:30
98M. SergachevD011000.09230—19:12
18O. PalatL011-110.01310—18:56
37Y. GourdeC000-140.480104018:16
17A. KillornL000-140.27000—17:53
44J. RuttaD000020.06100—16:58
71A. CirelliC000-110.112125016:13
19B. GoodrowC000+110.031207814:20
20B. ColemanL112+220.23000—14:11
9T. JohnsonC112+230.301005012:27
14P. MaroonL011+110.09000—11:11
60A. Barré-BouletC000+110.19100010:43
52C. FooteD000-100.00000—10:24
7M. JosephR000+100.000003310:17
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)23203.8701.58-1.4262:17

Season series

TBL leads 5-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).