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Red Wings at Lightning
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
1
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸3
FinalTV ESPN+, FS-D·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Detroit Red Wings 3-1. The Red Wings scored first; the Lightning answered. The Lightning led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Barclay Goodrow's goal at 17:29 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 53% to 74%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.2 to 2.2; shots on goal were DET 28, TBL 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Thomas Greiss stopped 29 of 31 (.935), 0.7 goals saved above expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 27 of 28 (.964), 1.2 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Andrei Vasilevskiy (27 saves, .964), 2. Mikhail Sergachev, 3. Barclay Goodrow (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    A. Vasilevskiy27 saves, .964
  2. ★★
    TBL
    M. Sergachev
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    B. Goodrow2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DETDET11201204128
TBLTBL1141919332

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    V. Namestnikov(2)
    F. Zadina (3), J. Merrill (2)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    10:00
  2. TBL
    P. Maroon(1)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.02win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    13:56

2nd period

  1. TBL
    B. Goodrow(1)
    J. Rutta (2), B. Point (6)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +22 pts
    1-2
    17:29

3rd period

  1. TBL
    B. Goodrow(2)EN
    B. Coleman (4), R. McDonagh (3)
    wristxG 0.49win prob +2 pts
    1-3
    19:32

Penalties

DET 6 PIM·TBL 4 PIM

1st

  • 2:50DETPatrik Nemeth · Holdingdrawn by Blake Coleman2 min
  • 6:29TBLMathieu Joseph · Hookingdrawn by Robby Fabbri2 min
  • 7:57TBLVictor Hedman · Slashingdrawn by Filip Zadina2 min
  • 10:28DETGivani Smith · Slashingdrawn by Victor Hedman2 min
  • 19:28DETDylan Larkin · Trippingdrawn by Ryan McDonagh2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalDET goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Barclay Goodrow, 2nd 17:29 — TBL 53% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Goodrow · Goal · xG 0.50S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.29A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.19S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.19Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.17B. Point · On goal · xG 0.15B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.14A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.11T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.09S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.09B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.09Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.08S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.08S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.08P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.07B. Point · On goal · xG 0.07Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.06C. Foote · Missed · xG 0.06E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.05M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.05E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.04A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.04T. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.04B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.04B. Point · Missed · xG 0.04B. Goodrow · Goal · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.03J. Rutta · Missed · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02C. Foote · On goal · xG 0.02E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02P. Maroon · Goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02B. Goodrow · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.01V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.01J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.01J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01B. Point · Missed · xG 0.01E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.01
TBL3 G · 3.2 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsTBL
2.21 G
All situations
2 G3.2
1.91 G
Even strength
2 G1.4
0.20 G
Power play
0 G1.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET42%58%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.15 – 2.58

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsTBL
28
Shots on goal
32
53%
Faceoffs
47%
0/2
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
20
Hits
23
4
Blocked shots
6
3
Giveaways
3
0
Takeaways
0

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
17F. HronekD000-130.30100—24:11
24J. MerrillD011+100.08010—21:29
22P. NemethD000000.00502—20:00
44C. DjoosD000-140.23100—19:21
71D. LarkinC000030.372026017:32
92V. NamestnikovC101+140.302201417:25
18M. StaalD000-200.00000—17:01
14R. FabbriC000-210.054106016:31
11F. ZadinaR011+130.23100—15:48
70T. StecherD000-100.04000—15:37
39A. ManthaR000-120.0610010015:10
54B. RyanR000-200.04000—14:53
43D. HelmC000-240.17000014:44
41L. GlendeningC000-110.010006314:30
89S. GagnerC000+100.000005014:03
81F. NielsenC000010.11000013:32
48G. SmithR000-110.09202—12:29
73A. ErneL000-110.07000—10:36
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29T. Greiss(L)31292.9352.67+0.6759:02

Season series

TBL leads 5-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).