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Lightning at Hurricanes
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
3
Carolina Hurricanes
▸4
FinalTV ESPN+, FS-CR·PNC Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-3. The Hurricanes came back from two goals down. The Hurricanes led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Martin Necas's goal at 16:07 of the third period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 59% to 92%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 3.8 to 2.4; shots on goal were TBL 22, CAR 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 71% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 36 of 40 (.900); James Reimer stopped 19 of 22 (.864), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Martin Necas (2 G, 2 A), 2. Sebastian Aho (1 G, 1 A), 3. Cedric Paquette (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    M. Necas2 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    CAR
    S. Aho1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    C. Paquette1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL2110714322
CARCAR012314114440

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    B. Coleman(7)
    J. Rutta (8), B. Goodrow (7)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    3:12
  2. TBL
    P. Maroon(4)
    R. Colton (3)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    5:41

2nd period

  1. CAR
    C. Paquette(4)
    M. Necas (18), B. Pesce (14)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    2:24
  2. CAR
    S. Aho(15)
    N. Niederreiter (8), M. Necas (19)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    3:26
  3. CAR
    M. Necas(8)PPG
    S. Aho (18), A. Svechnikov (16)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +16 pts
    2-3
    15:44

3rd period

  1. TBL
    M. Joseph(9)
    P. Maroon (9)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +23 pts
    3-3
    0:22
  2. CAR
    M. Necas(9)PPG
    D. Hamilton (24), J. Staal (14)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +32 pts
    3-4
    16:07

Penalties

TBL 14 PIM·CAR 10 PIM

1st

  • 0:17CARCedric Paquette · High stickingdrawn by Cal Foote2 min
  • 5:51CARDougie Hamilton · Interferencedrawn by Ondrej Palat2 min
  • 12:01TBLAndreas Borgman · Elbowingdrawn by Jesper Fast2 min

2nd

  • 8:20TBLMikhail Sergachev · Cross checkingdrawn by Nino Niederreiter2 min
  • 10:03CARNino Niederreiter · Roughingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min
  • 10:03TBLBlake Coleman · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Nino Niederreiter2 min
  • 10:03CARNino Niederreiter · Slashingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min
  • 14:41TBLBlake Coleman · Roughingdrawn by Warren Foegele2 min

3rd

  • 3:01TBLOndrej Palat · Slashingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min
  • 10:08TBLAlex Killorn · Boardingdrawn by Jordan Martinook2 min
  • 15:39TBLAndreas Borgman · Trippingdrawn by Andrei Svechnikov2 min
  • 17:35CARJesper Fast · Trippingdrawn by Jan Rutta2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalTBL goalFinal: CAR 100%

Biggest swing: Martin Necas, 3rd 16:07 — CAR 59% → 92%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.27B. Pesce · Missed · xG 0.20M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.18N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.16S. Aho · Goal · xG 0.15A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.15J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.15S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.14M. Necas · Goal · xG 0.14J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.13N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.13C. Paquette · Goal · xG 0.12M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.12J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.11M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.09J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.09B. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.09S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.09D. Hamilton · Missed · xG 0.08S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.08M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.07W. Foegele · Missed · xG 0.07S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.07J. Bean · On goal · xG 0.07J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.06J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.06D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.05M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.05J. Staal · Missed · xG 0.05M. Necas · Goal · xG 0.05A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.05W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.05D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.05D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.04S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.04S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.03M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.03J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.03D. Hamilton · Missed · xG 0.02B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.02J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.02D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.02D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.02J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.01B. Skjei · Missed · xG 0.01W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.01N. Niederreiter · Missed · xG 0.01B. Pesce · Missed · xG 0.01M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.01S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.01J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.00W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.00B. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.00H. Fleury · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR4 G · 3.8 xG · 54 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsCAR
2.43 G
All situations
4 G3.8
2.13 G
Even strength
2 G2.0
0.30 G
Power play
2 G1.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL29%71%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.40 – 3.70

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsCAR
22
Shots on goal
40
60%
Faceoffs
40%
0/4
Power play
2/6
14
Penalty minutes
10
34
Hits
23
10
Blocked shots
15
14
Giveaways
6
3
Takeaways
1

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD000020.07220—25:23
98M. SergachevD000+140.33102—22:14
44J. RuttaD011010.02230—22:08
52C. FooteD000+110.01200—19:02
21B. PointC000-100.031106717:40
91S. StamkosC000020.141006417:12
71A. CirelliC000000.244007517:02
18O. PalatL000-120.22102—16:49
37Y. GourdeC000010.133005016:30
19B. GoodrowC011000.004101715:46
17A. KillornL000000.21112—15:31
9T. JohnsonC000-130.3610010014:54
20B. ColemanL101+140.32204—14:54
5A. BorgmanD000000.01214—13:29
14P. MaroonL112+110.23100—13:19
79R. ColtonC011+300.002106710:32
2L. SchennD000000.01200—09:32
7M. JosephR101+110.1120010009:07
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(L)40364.9003.80-0.2059:13

Season series

Tied 4-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).