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Hurricanes at Lightning
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
0
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸3
FinalTV ESPN+, FS-CR·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Carolina Hurricanes 3-0. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ross Colton's goal at 6:43 of the first period, which took the Lightning's chances from 54% to 66%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.5 to 2.2; shots on goal were CAR 25, TBL 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 25 of 27 (.926), 0.6 goals saved above expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 25 of 25 (1.000), 2.2 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Blake Coleman (1 G), 2. Ross Colton (1 G), 3. Andrei Vasilevskiy (25 saves, 1.000).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    B. Coleman1 G
  2. ★★
    TBL
    R. Colton1 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    A. Vasilevskiy25 saves, 1.000

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR080809025
TBLTBL21201115328

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    R. Colton(1)
    V. Hedman (14), A. Killorn (6)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    6:43
  2. TBL
    B. Coleman(4)PPG
    Y. Gourde (4), P. Maroon (4)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +12 pts
    0-2
    17:27

3rd period

  1. TBL
    B. Goodrow(4)EN
    A. Killorn (7)
    wristxG 0.90
    0-3
    19:25

Penalties

CAR 2 PIM·TBL 4 PIM

1st

  • 16:19CARBrock McGinn · Hookingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min

2nd

  • 10:17TBLCal Foote · Holding the stickdrawn by Nino Niederreiter2 min

3rd

  • 7:18TBLMikhail Sergachev · Interferencedrawn by Jesper Fast2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalCAR goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Ross Colton, 1st 6:43 — TBL 54% → 66%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Goodrow · Goal · xG 0.90B. Goodrow · On goal · xG 0.28Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.18S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.17Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.16B. Coleman · Goal · xG 0.15T. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.15R. Colton · Goal · xG 0.14M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.14O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.11M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.10V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.09O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.09A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.09Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.08B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.08B. Goodrow · On goal · xG 0.07B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.06O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.06V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.06R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.05B. Coleman · Missed · xG 0.05S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.05S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.04M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.03Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.03E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.03V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.02C. Foote · On goal · xG 0.02O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.01
TBL3 G · 3.5 xG · 32 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsTBL
2.20 G
All situations
2 G3.5
1.80 G
Even strength
1 G2.2
0.40 G
Power play
1 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 64 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR42%58%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.19 – 2.61

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsTBL
25
Shots on goal
28
64%
Faceoffs
36%
0/2
Power play
1/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
21
Hits
31
6
Blocked shots
13
0
Giveaways
2
3
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
19D. HamiltonD000010.06000—24:08
74J. SlavinD000-150.12010—23:18
22B. PesceD000-100.07100—19:46
37A. SvechnikovR000-140.30500—19:04
20S. AhoC000-130.380108618:54
88M. NecasC000-110.05010017:57
71J. FastR000010.17100—17:50
24J. BeanD000-110.01010—17:29
16V. TrocheckC000-220.373005717:19
11J. StaalC000-120.154006016:56
51J. GardinerD000-100.00000—16:47
76B. SkjeiD000000.00000—16:03
23B. McGinnL000010.04002—16:01
21N. NiederreiterR000-100.00200—13:12
13W. FoegeleL000010.07000—12:26
48J. MartinookL000000.00100—11:46
78S. LorentzC000010.152206411:31
18C. PaquetteC000020.27200011:10
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39A. Nedeljkovic(L)27252.9262.62+0.6257:14

Season series

Tied 4-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).