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Lightning at Blackhawks
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks

Final/OTTV ESPN+, SUN·United Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Chicago Blackhawks 3-2 in overtime, Alex Killorn scoring at 4:59. The Lightning came back from two goals down. The Blackhawks led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alex Killorn's goal at 4:59 of overtime, which took the Lightning's chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Blackhawks, 3.4 to 2.1; shots on goal were TBL 34, CHI 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blackhawks win a replay of these chances 72% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 35 of 37 (.946), 1.4 goals saved above expected; Kevin Lankinen stopped 31 of 34 (.912), 0.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Alex Killorn (1 G, 1 A), 2. Andrei Vasilevskiy (35 saves, .946), 3. Brandon Hagel (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    A. Killorn1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    A. Vasilevskiy35 saves, .946
  3. ★★★
    CHI
    B. Hagel1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TBLTBL090821215334
CHICHI0112160703237

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. CHI
    snapxG 0.26win prob +18 pts
    0-1
    7:24
  2. CHI
    P. Kane (24), C. Murphy (5)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +16 pts
    0-2
    14:04

3rd period

  1. TBL
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    1:04
  2. TBL
    wristxG 0.09win prob +24 pts
    2-2
    2:55

Overtime

  1. TBL
    wristxG 0.17win prob +51 pts
    3-2
    4:59

Penalties

TBL 4 PIM·CHI 2 PIM

1st

  • 17:58TBLBlake Coleman · Slashingdrawn by Connor Murphy2 min

2nd

  • 5:54CHIPhilipp Kurashev · Slashingdrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min
  • 19:55TBLAlexander Volkov · High stickingdrawn by Carl Soderberg2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CHI goalTBL goalFinal: CHI 0%

Biggest swing: Alex Killorn, OT 4:59 — TBL 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.33R. Carpenter · Goal · xG 0.26M. Janmark · On goal · xG 0.19D. Kubalik · On goal · xG 0.19D. Keith · On goal · xG 0.19P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.18P. Suter · On goal · xG 0.14P. Kurashev · On goal · xG 0.12D. Keith · On goal · xG 0.11A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.10P. Kane · Missed · xG 0.10A. DeBrincat · Goal · xG 0.10M. Janmark · On goal · xG 0.09B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.09A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.08P. Kurashev · Missed · xG 0.07P. Suter · On goal · xG 0.07A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.07P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.06P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.06D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.06D. Kubalik · Missed · xG 0.05M. Highmore · On goal · xG 0.05M. Highmore · On goal · xG 0.05D. Kampf · Missed · xG 0.05D. Keith · On goal · xG 0.04D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.04P. Kurashev · On goal · xG 0.04R. Carpenter · On goal · xG 0.04D. Kubalik · On goal · xG 0.03N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.03C. de Haan · Missed · xG 0.03P. Kane · Missed · xG 0.03P. Kurashev · On goal · xG 0.03C. Murphy · On goal · xG 0.03L. Wallmark · On goal · xG 0.02P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.02N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.02L. Wallmark · On goal · xG 0.02C. Murphy · Missed · xG 0.02C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.02C. Murphy · Missed · xG 0.01C. Murphy · On goal · xG 0.01C. Murphy · On goal · xG 0.01M. Janmark · On goal · xG 0.01D. Keith · On goal · xG 0.01P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.01
CHI2 G · 3.4 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsCHI
2.13 G
All situations
2 G3.4
1.92 G
Even strength
1 G3.0
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.11 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL28%72%CHI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.08 – 3.35

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsCHI
34
Shots on goal
37
60%
Faceoffs
40%
0/1
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
2
41
Hits
30
29
Blocked shots
20
15
Giveaways
8
9
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD011+220.22060—27:15
27R. McDonaghD000010.03360—26:14
98M. SergachevD000-220.08230—25:47
17A. KillornL112+330.20210—22:51
21B. PointC000030.345005020:47
44J. RuttaD011+220.04020—20:27
71A. CirelliC101020.115206020:13
37Y. GourdeC011-110.101207718:59
91S. StamkosC101+130.181006718:42
18O. PalatL000060.29430—18:00
20B. ColemanL000+120.25402—17:21
19B. GoodrowC000-100.003006014:05
9T. JohnsonC000-220.043105012:59
52C. FooteD000010.04220—12:52
2L. SchennD000000.00000—09:59
14P. MaroonL000-110.11200—08:40
7M. JosephR000020.014005008:15
92A. VolkovR000010.05012—07:31
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)37352.9463.42+1.4264:59

Season series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).