Canadiens at Maple Leafs 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Montréal Canadiens

▸2

Toronto Maple Leafs

FinalTV NHLN, CBC·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Montréal Canadiens beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 2-1. The Maple Leafs scored first; the Canadiens answered. The Maple Leafs led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brendan Gallagher's goal at 16:53 of the third period, which took the Canadiens' chances from 48% to 92%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 2.7 to 1.8; shots on goal were MTL 25, TOR 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Carey Price stopped 21 of 22 (.955), 1.7 goals saved above expected; Frederik Andersen stopped 23 of 25 (.920). Three stars: 1. Brendan Gallagher (1 G, 1 A), 2. Tyler Toffoli (1 G, 1 A), 3. Mitch Marner (1 G).

Three stars

★
B. Gallagher1 G, 1 A
★★
T. Toffoli1 G, 1 A
★★★
M. Marner1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	06	07	212	225
TOR	19	07	06	122

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

M. Marner(7)
A. Matthews (6), Z. Hyman (6)
snapxG 0.15win prob +12 pts
0-1
3:36

3rd period

T. Toffoli(10)
P. Danault (6), B. Gallagher (3)
wristxG 0.10win prob +27 pts
1-1
6:11
B. Gallagher(6)
J. Petry (9), T. Toffoli (5)
slapxG 0.11win prob +44 pts
2-1
16:53

Penalties

2 PIM·

0 PIM

1st

15:35Tyler Toffoli · Holdingdrawn by Travis Dermott2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: TOR

Biggest swing: Brendan Gallagher, 3rd 16:53 — MTL 48% → 92%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.7 xG · 36 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 1.8 xG · 37 att TOR

1 G · 2.7 xG · 36 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.82 G
All situations: 1 G2.7; 1.82 G
Even strength: 1 G2.7; 0.00 G
Power play: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 73 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

34%66%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.82 – 2.68

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

25
Shots on goal: 22; 49%
Faceoffs: 51%; 0/0
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 0; 46
Hits: 16; 4
Blocked shots: 21; 12
Giveaways: 13; 2
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

Montréal Canadiens skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
26J. PetryD	0	1	1	+1	1	0.00	2	0	0	—	23:12
44J. EdmundsonD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.03	4	0	0	—	22:43
6S. WeberD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.19	4	1	0	—	22:26
8B. ChiarotD	0	0	0	0	1	0.06	3	0	0	—	21:01
24P. DanaultC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	50	18:23
73T. ToffoliC	1	1	2	+1	3	0.43	3	0	2	0	17:28
27A. RomanovD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.04	3	1	0	—	16:47
17J. AndersonR	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	6	0	0	—	16:30
40J. ArmiaR	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	2	0	0	—	16:16
14N. SuzukiC	0	0	0	0	1	0.18	2	1	0	20	16:15
11B. GallagherR	1	1	2	+1	5	0.28	1	0	0	—	15:02
62A. LehkonenL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4	0	0	—	14:50
15J. KotkaniemiC	0	0	0	0	2	0.17	1	0	0	78	14:23
53V. MeteD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	0	—	13:51
92J. DrouinL	0	0	0	0	4	0.28	2	0	0	—	13:26
41P. ByronL	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	3	0	0	—	12:20
94C. PerryR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	0	—	11:37
71J. EvansC	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	2	1	0	100	11:30

Montréal Canadiens goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
31C. Price(W)	22	21	1	.955	2.73	+1.73	60:00

Season series

TOR leads 7-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs

1st period

3rd period

1st

Box score