Jets at Flames 2-3 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Winnipeg Jets

Calgary Flames

▸3

FinalTV ESPN+, SNW·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Winnipeg Jets 3-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Elias Lindholm's goal at 18:18 of the third period, which took the Flames' chances from 58% to 94%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 2.2 to 1.1; shots on goal were WPG 27, CGY 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 73% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 26 of 29 (.897), 0.8 goals below expected; Jacob Markstrom stopped 25 of 27 (.926), 0.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Elias Lindholm (1 G), 2. Mikael Backlund (1 A), 3. Byron Froese (1 G).

Three stars

★
E. Lindholm1 G
★★
M. Backlund1 A
★★★
B. Froese1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	010	29	08	227
CGY	011	27	111	329

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

N. Ehlers(7)PPG
N. Pionk (9), A. Copp (7)
wristxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
1-0
3:23
A. Mangiapane(3)
M. Backlund (5), M. Lucic (3)
backhandxG 0.07win prob +17 pts
1-1
5:31
B. Froese(1)
J. Välimäki (4), J. Leivo (2)
tip-inxG 0.06win prob +20 pts
1-2
13:34
N. Ehlers(8)
M. Scheifele (10), A. Copp (8)
wristxG 0.17win prob +21 pts
2-2
15:45

3rd period

E. Lindholm(4)PPG
R. Andersson (4), M. Tkachuk (5)
wristxG 0.05win prob +35 pts
2-3
18:18

Penalties

4 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

4:53Derek Forbort · Slashingdrawn by Sam Bennett2 min
7:31Byron Froese · Trippingdrawn by Logan Stanley2 min

2nd

1:47Sean Monahan · Hookingdrawn by Kyle Connor2 min

3rd

17:25Nathan Beaulieu · High stickingdrawn by Johnny Gaudreau2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: CGY

100%

Biggest swing: Elias Lindholm, 3rd 18:18 — CGY 58% → 94%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

3 G · 2.2 xG · 43 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 1.1 xG · 30 att CGY

3 G · 2.2 xG · 43 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.12 G
All situations: 3 G2.2; 0.81 G
Even strength: 2 G1.8; 0.31 G
Power play: 1 G0.4; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 73 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

27%73%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.12 – 2.23

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

27
Shots on goal: 29; 44%
Faceoffs: 56%; 1/2
Power play: 1/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 4; 15
Hits: 17; 12
Blocked shots: 10; 12
Giveaways: 18; 4
Takeaways: 9

Box score

every player line

Winnipeg Jets skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
44J. MorrisseyD	0	0	0	-1	4	0.10	1	2	0	—	26:51
4N. PionkD	0	1	1	0	2	0.05	3	1	0	—	22:43
88N. BeaulieuD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.02	0	5	2	—	22:31
55M. ScheifeleC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.20	0	0	0	33	21:09
24D. ForbortD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	1	2	—	20:26
9A. CoppC	0	2	2	+1	1	0.02	2	0	0	25	18:29
27N. EhlersL	2	0	2	+1	6	0.40	0	0	0	—	18:02
81K. ConnorL	0	0	0	-1	1	0.04	0	0	0	100	17:12
26B. WheelerR	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	1	0	0	100	16:33
25P. StastnyC	0	0	0	0	0	0.08	0	0	0	57	16:27
22M. AppletonC	0	0	0	-1	3	0.07	2	1	0	0	15:03
13P. DuboisC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	0	0	33	13:10
2D. DeMeloD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.02	1	2	0	—	13:06
93K. VesalainenL	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	1	0	0	—	12:31
17A. LowryC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.05	1	0	0	44	12:19
85M. PerreaultC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	0	0	0	11:05
23T. LewisC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.03	0	0	0	0	10:50
64L. StanleyD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	0	0	—	09:59

Winnipeg Jets goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
37C. Hellebuyck(L)	29	26	3	.897	2.24	-0.76	58:41

Season series

WPG leads 6-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Winnipeg Jets at Calgary Flames

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score