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Flames at Jets
NHL

Calgary Flames at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
1
Winnipeg Jets
▸4
FinalTV SNW, TSN3·Bell MTS Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Calgary Flames 4-1. The Flames scored first; the Jets answered. The Jets led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kyle Connor's goal at 13:59 of the second period, which took the Jets' chances from 53% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 2.9 to 2.4; shots on goal were CGY 24, WPG 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Jacob Markstrom stopped 23 of 26 (.885), 0.8 goals below expected; Connor Hellebuyck stopped 23 of 24 (.958), 1.4 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Connor Hellebuyck (23 saves, .958), 2. Mathieu Perreault (3 A), 3. Mason Appleton (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    C. Hellebuyck23 saves, .958
  2. ★★
    WPG
    M. Perreault3 A
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    M. Appleton2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY1110706124
WPGWPG01031116427

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    A. Mangiapane(2)
    J. Välimäki (3)
    deflectedxG 0.09win prob +16 pts
    1-0
    19:04

2nd period

  1. WPG
    M. Appleton(2)
    A. Lowry (5), M. Perreault (2)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    3:31
  2. WPG
    K. Connor(7)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.19win prob +20 pts
    1-2
    13:59
  3. WPG
    M. Scheifele(5)
    N. Pionk (8), M. Perreault (3)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    19:09

3rd period

  1. WPG
    M. Appleton(3)EN
    M. Perreault (4)
    backhandxG 0.78win prob +1 pts
    1-4
    18:38

Penalties

CGY 6 PIM·WPG 8 PIM

1st

  • 4:09WPGBlake Wheeler · Holdingdrawn by Nikita Nesterov2 min
  • 7:17WPGKyle Connor · High stickingdrawn by Juuso Välimäki2 min

2nd

  • 4:22CGYNikita Nesterov · Slashingdrawn by Nikolaj Ehlers2 min
  • 5:29WPGPaul Stastny · Holdingdrawn by Andrew Mangiapane2 min
  • 8:30CGYAndrew Mangiapane · Interferencedrawn by Nikolaj Ehlers2 min

3rd

  • 12:41WPGBlake Wheeler · Trippingdrawn by Sean Monahan2 min
  • 13:46CGYElias Lindholm · Trippingdrawn by Mason Appleton2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalCGY goalFinal: WPG 100%

Biggest swing: Kyle Connor, 2nd 13:59 — WPG 53% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Appleton · Goal · xG 0.78N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.33M. Appleton · Goal · xG 0.22M. Scheifele · Goal · xG 0.21K. Connor · Goal · xG 0.19M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.13N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.12D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.10K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.10N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.08B. Wheeler · Missed · xG 0.06N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.06T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.05N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.05A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.05A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.04N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.03L. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.03M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.03P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.03K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.02N. Pionk · Missed · xG 0.02K. Vesalainen · On goal · xG 0.02N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.02B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.02D. Forbort · On goal · xG 0.02D. Forbort · Missed · xG 0.01L. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.01A. Copp · Missed · xG 0.01D. Forbort · Missed · xG 0.01J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.01B. Wheeler · Missed · xG 0.01A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.01N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.01K. Vesalainen · On goal · xG 0.01T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.01N. Beaulieu · On goal · xG 0.01P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG4 G · 2.9 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsWPG
2.41 G
All situations
3 G2.9
1.91 G
Even strength
3 G2.0
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.0
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY54%46%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.38 – 2.15

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsWPG
24
Shots on goal
27
43%
Faceoffs
57%
0/4
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
8
15
Hits
18
8
Blocked shots
13
20
Giveaways
16
3
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
28E. LindholmC000-240.191026222:58
4R. AnderssonD000-210.05010—22:56
13J. GaudreauL000-110.09000—22:49
5M. GiordanoD000-110.04020—21:07
23S. MonahanC000-100.290003821:04
8C. TanevD000-210.03010—19:56
19M. TkachukL000-320.24200—18:56
6J. VälimäkiD011020.04100—17:40
29D. DubeC000-320.1701010017:19
11M. BacklundC000040.471004516:45
55N. HanifinD000-220.30100—15:46
89N. NesterovD000+100.02002—15:35
88A. MangiapaneL101+110.28112—13:58
20J. NordstromC000000.00200013:09
27J. LeivoL000020.15100—11:19
17M. LucicL000-110.05400—11:08
81D. SimonC000000.00110010:03
10D. RyanC000000.00010002:18
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
25J. Markstrom(L)26233.8852.15-0.8558:49

Season series

WPG leads 6-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).