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Flames at Jets
NHL

Calgary Flames at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
3
Winnipeg Jets
▸4
Final/OTTV SNW, TSN3·Bell MTS Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Calgary Flames 4-3 in overtime, Patrik Laine scoring at 1:18. The Jets came back from two goals down. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Patrik Laine's goal at 1:18 of overtime, which took the Jets' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 3.1 to 1.6; shots on goal were CGY 26, WPG 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 76% of the time. Jacob Markstrom stopped 30 of 34 (.882), 0.9 goals below expected; Connor Hellebuyck stopped 23 of 26 (.885), 1.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Patrik Laine (2 G, 1 A), 2. Mark Scheifele (1 G), 3. Elias Lindholm (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    P. Laine2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    WPG
    M. Scheifele1 G
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    E. Lindholm1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
CGYCGY313060700326
WPGWPG1621401212434

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    M. Tkachuk(1)
    R. Andersson (1), M. Giordano (1)
    deflectedxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    4:28
  2. WPG
    P. Laine(1)
    K. Connor (1), D. Forbort (1)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    7:24
  3. CGY
    J. Gaudreau(1)PPG
    E. Lindholm (1), S. Monahan (1)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +11 pts
    2-1
    11:24
  4. CGY
    E. Lindholm(1)
    D. Dube (1), C. Tanev (1)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +16 pts
    3-1
    16:28

2nd period

  1. WPG
    M. Scheifele(1)
    N. Ehlers (1)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +16 pts
    3-2
    0:34
  2. WPG
    K. Connor(1)PPG
    P. Laine (1), B. Wheeler (1)
    slapxG 0.12win prob +21 pts
    3-3
    15:04

Overtime

  1. WPG
    P. Laine(2)
    N. Pionk (1), K. Connor (2)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +49 pts
    3-4
    1:18

Penalties

CGY 10 PIM·WPG 8 PIM

1st

  • 10:12WPGMathieu Perreault · Interferencedrawn by Chris Tanev2 min
  • 11:43CGYDerek Ryan · Hookingdrawn by Tucker Poolman2 min

2nd

  • 0:50WPGPatrik Laine · Slashingdrawn by Noah Hanifin2 min
  • 13:15CGYserved by S. Bennett · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 14:31CGYElias Lindholm · Hookingdrawn by Paul Stastny2 min
  • 16:24WPGserved by M. Perreault · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 19:35CGYNoah Hanifin · Cross checkingdrawn by Kyle Connor2 min
  • 19:35WPGPatrik Laine · Roughingdrawn by Noah Hanifin2 min
  • 19:35CGYMatthew Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Patrik Laine2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalCGY goalFinal: WPG 100%

Biggest swing: Patrik Laine, OT 1:18 — WPG 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.39M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.34M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.22P. Laine · Goal · xG 0.20A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.16J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.13N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.13M. Scheifele · Goal · xG 0.12K. Connor · Goal · xG 0.12K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.11N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.09N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.09A. Copp · Missed · xG 0.08B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.07K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.07M. Perreault · On goal · xG 0.06P. Laine · Goal · xG 0.06M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.06P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.06B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.05M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.05K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.04M. Perreault · On goal · xG 0.04P. Laine · Missed · xG 0.04D. Forbort · On goal · xG 0.04J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.03P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.03N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.03P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.03N. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.02N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.02D. Forbort · On goal · xG 0.02A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.02N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.02M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.01A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.01T. Lewis · Missed · xG 0.01N. Beaulieu · On goal · xG 0.01
WPG4 G · 3.1 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsWPG
1.63 G
All situations
4 G3.1
1.12 G
Even strength
3 G1.9
0.41 G
Power play
1 G1.2
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 73 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY24%76%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.58 – 3.01

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsWPG
26
Shots on goal
34
45%
Faceoffs
55%
1/3
Power play
1/4
10
Penalty minutes
8
22
Hits
21
18
Blocked shots
14
11
Giveaways
11
5
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4R. AnderssonD011-110.01140—23:59
55N. HanifinD000+140.03012—21:51
8C. TanevD011+110.02010—20:22
28E. LindholmC112+210.061124320:09
5M. GiordanoD011-210.05030—19:50
19M. TkachukL101+250.37502—19:32
13J. GaudreauL101-130.16000—18:44
23S. MonahanC011-120.062005318:30
11M. BacklundC000030.104105017:53
6J. VälimäkiD000000.00130—14:37
89N. NesterovD000000.03110—14:37
88A. MangiapaneL000010.03000—14:20
27J. LeivoL000000.2010010014:11
29D. DubeC011+210.00200012:52
93S. BennettC000-200.112102011:36
20J. NordstromC000-200.11100011:19
10D. RyanC000010.070023310:43
17M. LucicL000-220.18120—09:06
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
25J. Markstrom(O)34304.8823.11-0.8961:18

Season series

WPG leads 6-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).