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Flames at Jets
NHL

Calgary Flames at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
2
Winnipeg Jets
▸3
FinalTV SNW, TSN3·Bell MTS Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Calgary Flames 3-2. The Jets scored first and never trailed. The Jets led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nikolaj Ehlers's goal at 13:32 of the first period, which took the Jets' chances from 67% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 2.5 to 2.1; shots on goal were CGY 31, WPG 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. David Rittich stopped 25 of 28 (.893), 0.8 goals below expected; Laurent Brossoit stopped 29 of 31 (.935). Three stars: 1. Derek Forbort (1 G), 2. Matthew Tkachuk (2 G), 3. Trevor Lewis (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    D. Forbort1 G
  2. ★★
    CGY
    M. Tkachuk2 G
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    T. Lewis1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY1806117231
WPGWPG31101205328

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. WPG
    T. Lewis(1)SHG
    M. Appleton (4)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    6:40
  2. WPG
    D. Forbort(1)
    N. Pionk (7), A. Copp (6)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    7:10
  3. CGY
    M. Tkachuk(4)
    D. Dube (2), E. Lindholm (9)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    7:45
  4. WPG
    N. Ehlers(6)
    D. DeMelo (2), M. Scheifele (9)
    deflectedxG 0.07win prob +14 pts
    1-3
    13:32

3rd period

  1. CGY
    M. Tkachuk(5)
    J. Gaudreau (5), S. Monahan (6)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +12 pts
    2-3
    10:53

Penalties

CGY 4 PIM·WPG 8 PIM

1st

  • 4:58WPGNeal Pionk · Hookingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min
  • 16:23WPGDerek Forbort · Hookingdrawn by Sean Monahan2 min

2nd

  • 17:23CGYMatthew Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Adam Lowry2 min
  • 17:54WPGMark Scheifele · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by David Rittich2 min

3rd

  • 6:26CGYMilan Lucic · High stickingdrawn by Neal Pionk2 min
  • 12:24WPGMason Appleton · Slashingdrawn by Noah Hanifin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalCGY goalFinal: WPG 100%

Biggest swing: Nikolaj Ehlers, 1st 13:32 — WPG 67% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Lewis · Goal · xG 0.22N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.17A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.13A. Copp · Missed · xG 0.13B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.13M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.12M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.12J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.11M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.11K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.10P. Stastny · Missed · xG 0.09A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.08M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.08N. Ehlers · Goal · xG 0.06J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.05M. Perreault · Missed · xG 0.05T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.04D. Forbort · Goal · xG 0.04A. Lowry · Missed · xG 0.03M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.03D. Forbort · On goal · xG 0.02J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.02N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.02J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.02J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.02N. Beaulieu · On goal · xG 0.02D. DeMelo · Missed · xG 0.02D. Forbort · On goal · xG 0.02T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.01L. Stanley · Missed · xG 0.01D. Forbort · On goal · xG 0.01D. Forbort · On goal · xG 0.01J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.01A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.01A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.01N. Beaulieu · On goal · xG 0.01M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.01L. Stanley · Missed · xG 0.00A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.00M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG3 G · 2.1 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsWPG
2.52 G
All situations
3 G2.1
1.92 G
Even strength
2 G1.9
0.50 G
Power play
0 G0.0
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY56%44%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.42 – 2.12

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsWPG
31
Shots on goal
28
57%
Faceoffs
43%
0/4
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
8
15
Hits
16
10
Blocked shots
24
7
Giveaways
17
4
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
19M. TkachukL202+240.52102—24:16
4R. AnderssonD000030.19010—21:25
28E. LindholmC011+120.222005020:31
55N. HanifinD000-130.14000—20:15
5M. GiordanoD000-130.11130—19:53
8C. TanevD000-110.12010—19:25
29D. DubeC011020.20000019:15
13J. GaudreauL011030.20100—19:09
23S. MonahanC011010.082005817:43
89N. NesterovD000+100.00100—17:07
11M. BacklundC000-220.112107116:43
6J. VälimäkiD000+120.03020—15:56
88A. MangiapaneL000-100.00000—13:00
27J. LeivoL000-120.08000—12:05
17M. LucicL000-110.21102—11:29
93S. BennettC000-110.0310010011:11
20J. NordstromC000-110.04310009:22
10D. RyanC000000.200104409:03
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
33D. Rittich(L)28253.8932.15-0.8558:01

Season series

WPG leads 6-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).