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Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames

Final/OTTV CNBC, FS-SW·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Calgary Flames 5-4 in overtime, Alexander Radulov scoring at 16:05. The lead changed hands 3 times. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alexander Radulov's goal at 16:05 of overtime, which took the Stars' chances from 48% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 5.5 to 2.8; shots on goal were DAL 62, CGY 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 87% of the time. Anton Khudobin stopped 36 of 40 (.900), 1.2 goals below expected; Cam Talbot stopped 57 of 62 (.919), 0.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Joe Pavelski (3 G), 2. Sam Bennett (2 G, 1 A), 3. John Klingberg (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    J. Pavelski3 G
  2. ★★
    CGY
    S. Bennett2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    J. Klingberg3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
DALDAL111218121112562
CGYCGY0143151605440

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    wristxG 0.08win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    18:11

2nd period

  1. CGY
    backhandxG 0.17win prob +11 pts
    1-1
    1:54
  2. DAL
    snapxG 0.04win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    3:14
  3. CGY
    slapxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
    2-2
    3:57
  4. CGY
    wristxG 0.09win prob +20 pts
    2-3
    14:50
  5. DAL
    slapxG 0.14win prob +20 pts
    3-3
    19:23

3rd period

  1. CGY
    T. Rieder(3)SHG
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +26 pts
    3-4
    3:11
  2. DAL
    backhandxG 0.10win prob +46 pts
    4-4
    19:48

Overtime

  1. DAL
    slapxG 0.14win prob +52 pts
    5-4
    16:05

Penalties

DAL 8 PIM·CGY 14 PIM

1st

  • 2:52CGYSam Bennett · Interferencedrawn by Andrew Cogliano2 min
  • 5:52DALMattias Janmark · Slashingdrawn by Dillon Dube2 min
  • 9:05DALJamie Benn · Slashingdrawn by Dillon Dube2 min
  • 18:00CGYElias Lindholm · Cross checkingdrawn by Miro Heiskanen2 min

2nd

  • 1:18DALJamie Oleksiak · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 3:30DALJamie Oleksiak · Trippingdrawn by Dillon Dube2 min
  • 18:03CGYCam Talbot · Trippingdrawn by Blake Comeau2 min
  • 19:54CGYSam Bennett · Chargingdrawn by Jason Dickinson2 min

3rd

  • 2:58CGYMark Giordano · Hookingdrawn by Mattias Janmark2 min
  • 7:58CGYSean Monahan · High stickingdrawn by Andrew Cogliano2 min
  • 9:53CGYMikael Backlund · Trippingdrawn by Roope Hintz2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalDAL goalFinal: CGY 0%

Biggest swing: Alexander Radulov, OT 16:05 — DAL 48% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.37S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.34J. Gaudreau · Goal · xG 0.17D. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.13S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.13D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.12M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.11S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.10T. Rieder · Missed · xG 0.09S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.09S. Bennett · Goal · xG 0.09T. Rieder · Goal · xG 0.09M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.08D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.08A. Mangiapane · Missed · xG 0.07J. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.07M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.06E. Gustafsson · On goal · xG 0.06J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.06E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.05M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.04M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.03M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.03S. Bennett · Goal · xG 0.03E. Gustafsson · On goal · xG 0.03S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.03N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.02A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.02E. Gustafsson · On goal · xG 0.02T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.02T. Rieder · On goal · xG 0.02E. Gustafsson · On goal · xG 0.02N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.02E. Gustafsson · On goal · xG 0.02S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.01M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.01D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.01M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.01R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.01N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.01R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.01S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.01D. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.00D. Forbort · On goal · xG 0.00R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY4 G · 2.8 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsCGY
5.55 G
All situations
4 G2.8
4.03 G
Even strength
1 G1.3
1.42 G
Power play
2 G1.4
0.10 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 128 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL87%13%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 5.45 – 2.51

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsCGY
62
Shots on goal
40
51%
Faceoffs
49%
2/7
Power play
2/4
8
Penalty minutes
14
35
Hits
38
14
Blocked shots
26
18
Giveaways
20
7
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4M. HeiskanenD011+130.11230—35:45
3J. KlingbergD033+250.43110—32:19
23E. LindellD011+210.13110—29:16
47A. RadulovR101070.60100—27:08
2J. OleksiakD000050.33414—26:31
91T. SeguinC022040.463006925:43
14J. BennL011050.154225025:42
16J. PavelskiC303+180.543104222:38
12R. FaksaC000+120.145005219:38
10C. PerryR000020.65220—17:44
18J. DickinsonC000030.330004717:28
34D. GurianovR101040.35310—17:11
24R. HintzC011060.60110016:56
15B. ComeauL011+120.15310—16:37
11A. CoglianoC000010.22200015:16
13M. JanmarkC000010.250026713:59
5A. SekeraD000-110.01000—10:48
42T. FedunD000-120.06000—06:42
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35A. Khudobin(W)40364.9002.78-1.2274:06

Series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).