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Stars at Flames
NHL

Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
▸7
Calgary Flames
3
FinalTV NBCSN, FS-SW·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Calgary Flames 7-3. The Stars came back from three goals down. The Stars led 6-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Joe Pavelski's goal at 7:22 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 65% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 3.9 to 2.3; shots on goal were DAL 24, CGY 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 75% of the time. Anton Khudobin stopped 38 of 41 (.927), 0.9 goals saved above expected; Cam Talbot stopped 11 of 15 (.733), 3.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Denis Gurianov (4 G, 1 A), 2. Miro Heiskanen (1 G, 3 A), 3. Joe Pavelski (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    D. Gurianov4 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    DAL
    M. Heiskanen1 G, 3 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    J. Pavelski1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL1551217724
CGYCGY315012014341

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    A. Mangiapane(2)
    T. Brodie (3), E. Lindholm (4)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    3:42
  2. CGY
    J. Gaudreau(4)PPG
    S. Bennett (3)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +11 pts
    0-2
    5:38
  3. CGY
    R. Andersson(3)
    T. Rieder (2), N. Hanifin (4)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +10 pts
    0-3
    6:34
  4. DAL
    M. Heiskanen(3)PPG
    C. Perry (2), R. Hintz (4)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +8 pts
    1-3
    9:36

2nd period

  1. DAL
    D. Gurianov(3)
    M. Heiskanen (7)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    0:59
  2. DAL
    D. Gurianov(4)
    J. Pavelski (1), E. Lindell (3)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +16 pts
    3-3
    3:25
  3. DAL
    R. Faksa(1)PPG
    D. Gurianov (1), M. Heiskanen (8)
    tip-inxG 0.26win prob +14 pts
    4-3
    5:47
  4. DAL
    J. Pavelski(6)
    M. Heiskanen (9)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +17 pts
    5-3
    7:22
  5. DAL
    D. Gurianov(5)
    J. Pavelski (2), A. Khudobin (1)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +9 pts
    6-3
    15:30

3rd period

  1. DAL
    D. Gurianov(6)
    J. Kiviranta (1)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +1 pts
    7-3
    9:02

Penalties

DAL 6 PIM·CGY 4 PIM

1st

  • 4:49DALRoope Hintz · Holdingdrawn by Dillon Dube2 min
  • 8:02CGYMilan Lucic · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Anton Khudobin2 min

2nd

  • 4:30CGYMilan Lucic · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 17:06DALJamie Oleksiak · Hookingdrawn by Johnny Gaudreau2 min

3rd

  • 17:40DALJoe Pavelski · Slashingdrawn by Rasmus Andersson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalDAL goalFinal: CGY 0%

Biggest swing: Joe Pavelski, 2nd 7:22 — DAL 65% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.37D. Dube · Missed · xG 0.25T. Rieder · On goal · xG 0.22D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.21S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.19S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.17S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.15J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.14E. Gustafsson · On goal · xG 0.13S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.13S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.13D. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.11M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.10E. Gustafsson · Missed · xG 0.10M. Jankowski · Missed · xG 0.09T. Rieder · On goal · xG 0.09E. Gustafsson · Missed · xG 0.08M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.08D. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.08E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.08J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.07M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.07T. Rieder · Missed · xG 0.07J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.06D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.06A. Mangiapane · Goal · xG 0.06M. Jankowski · Missed · xG 0.05M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.05E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.05T. Rieder · Missed · xG 0.04J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.04S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.03S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.03M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.03S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.03E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.03R. Andersson · Goal · xG 0.03J. Gaudreau · Goal · xG 0.03S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.02S. Bennett · Missed · xG 0.02D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.02M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.02D. Forbort · Missed · xG 0.02E. Gustafsson · On goal · xG 0.02D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.01M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.01R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.01D. Forbort · Missed · xG 0.01M. Jankowski · On goal · xG 0.01A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.01M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.01N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.01D. Forbort · Missed · xG 0.01T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.00S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY3 G · 3.9 xG · 56 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsCGY
2.37 G
All situations
3 G3.9
1.45 G
Even strength
2 G3.0
0.92 G
Power play
1 G0.9
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL25%75%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.26 – 3.86

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsCGY
24
Shots on goal
41
46%
Faceoffs
54%
2/2
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
38
Hits
50
24
Blocked shots
9
21
Giveaways
14
10
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4M. HeiskanenD134+230.12020—25:50
23E. LindellD011+100.00150—23:20
2J. OleksiakD000+200.00122—21:07
3J. KlingbergD000+100.00230—20:59
91T. SeguinC000020.203104217:37
15B. ComeauL000-100.01510—16:37
18J. DickinsonC000020.100205616:25
47A. RadulovR000000.00020—15:40
5A. SekeraD000000.00100—15:24
14J. BennL000020.133204315:13
11A. CoglianoC000-120.14300015:10
16J. PavelskiC123+320.601125015:10
12R. FaksaC101020.335105014:29
34D. GurianovR415+450.21200—13:27
24R. HintzC011020.183023313:24
25J. KivirantaL011+410.05300—13:12
10C. PerryR011010.23510—11:38
42T. FedunD000000.00010—10:29
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35A. Khudobin(W)41383.9273.94+0.9460:00

Series

DAL leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).