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Lightning at Ducks
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸4
Anaheim Ducks
3
FinalTV PRIME, SUN·Honda Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Anaheim Ducks 4-3. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Anthony Cirelli's goal at 18:58 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 47% to 71%. Expected goals favored the Ducks, 3.2 to 2.5; shots on goal were TBL 22, ANA 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Ducks win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 23 of 26 (.885); John Gibson stopped 18 of 22 (.818), 1.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Anthony Cirelli (1 G, 1 A), 2. Michael Del Zotto (1 G, 1 A), 3. Brayden Point (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    A. Cirelli1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    ANA
    M. Del Zotto1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    B. Point1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL2101814422
ANAANA2110619326

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    O. Palat(13)
    A. Cirelli (23), T. Johnson (13)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    4:07
  2. ANA
    R. Rakell(13)
    M. Del Zotto (8), R. Getzlaf (23)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    8:42
  3. TBL
    E. Cernak(5)
    B. Point (27), N. Kucherov (37)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    14:43
  4. ANA
    M. Del Zotto(2)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.07win prob +15 pts
    2-2
    18:29

2nd period

  1. TBL
    A. Cirelli(13)
    J. Rutta (6), P. Maroon (11)
    deflectedxG 0.10win prob +23 pts
    3-2
    18:58

3rd period

  1. TBL
    N. Kucherov(23)
    S. Stamkos (32)
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +15 pts
    4-2
    10:56
  2. ANA
    T. Terry(4)
    R. Rakell (17), R. Getzlaf (24)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +1 pts
    4-3
    19:47

Penalties

TBL 6 PIM·ANA 6 PIM

1st

  • 9:29TBLErik Cernak · Hookingdrawn by Jakob Silfverberg2 min

2nd

  • 2:53TBLVictor Hedman · Trippingdrawn by Michael Del Zotto2 min
  • 6:21ANADerek Grant · Holding the stickdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min
  • 12:21ANAMax Jones · Holdingdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min

3rd

  • 0:11TBLTyler Johnson · Hookingdrawn by Ryan Getzlaf2 min
  • 0:23ANACam Fowler · Hookingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
ANA goalTBL goalFinal: ANA 0%

Biggest swing: Anthony Cirelli, 2nd 18:58 — TBL 47% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Henrique · Missed · xG 0.20N. Deslauriers · Missed · xG 0.18R. Getzlaf · Missed · xG 0.14R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.14R. Getzlaf · Missed · xG 0.13N. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.12O. Kase · On goal · xG 0.11M. Jones · On goal · xG 0.10R. Rakell · Missed · xG 0.10R. Rakell · Missed · xG 0.10T. Terry · Goal · xG 0.10D. Grant · Missed · xG 0.09N. Ritchie · Missed · xG 0.08R. Rakell · Missed · xG 0.08A. Henrique · On goal · xG 0.08M. Del Zotto · On goal · xG 0.08J. Silfverberg · Missed · xG 0.07O. Kase · Missed · xG 0.07C. Rowney · Missed · xG 0.07R. Getzlaf · On goal · xG 0.07E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.07M. Del Zotto · On goal · xG 0.07N. Ritchie · Missed · xG 0.07M. Del Zotto · Goal · xG 0.06D. Grant · Missed · xG 0.06E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.05R. Rakell · Missed · xG 0.05R. Rakell · Goal · xG 0.05O. Kase · On goal · xG 0.05A. Henrique · On goal · xG 0.05O. Kase · Missed · xG 0.04T. Terry · Missed · xG 0.04N. Deslauriers · On goal · xG 0.04N. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.04R. Getzlaf · Missed · xG 0.04A. Henrique · On goal · xG 0.03J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.03C. Fowler · Missed · xG 0.03O. Kase · On goal · xG 0.03M. Del Zotto · Missed · xG 0.03R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.03H. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.02E. Gudbranson · Missed · xG 0.02E. Gudbranson · Missed · xG 0.02S. Steel · Missed · xG 0.02N. Deslauriers · On goal · xG 0.02H. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.01J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.01O. Kase · Missed · xG 0.00R. Getzlaf · On goal · xG 0.00
ANA3 G · 3.2 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsANA
2.54 G
All situations
3 G3.2
2.04 G
Even strength
3 G2.3
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.8
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL39%61%ANA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.51 – 3.15

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsANA
22
Shots on goal
26
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/3
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
26
Hits
17
19
Blocked shots
15
12
Giveaways
12
6
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD000-100.02022—23:24
27R. McDonaghD000+210.07110—21:14
86N. KucherovR112+210.11110—19:14
98M. SergachevD000-100.00330—18:41
22K. ShattenkirkD000010.16220—18:39
21B. PointC011+230.551105318:15
81E. CernakD101+130.16322—18:12
91S. StamkosC011+200.002102517:50
44J. RuttaD011+110.03010—17:38
18O. PalatL101+110.17020—16:22
71A. CirelliC112+220.510006716:18
17A. KillornL000030.30000—16:00
9T. JohnsonC011+120.010022514:51
14P. MaroonL011020.27300—14:29
13C. PaquetteC000-110.065203313:18
37Y. GourdeC000-210.07400011:30
67M. StephensC000-200.020004509:51
23C. VerhaegheC000-200.00110008:14
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)26233.8853.19+0.1960:00

Season series

TBL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).