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St. Louis Blues at Calgary Flames

Final/OTTV ESPN+, FS-MW·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Calgary Flames 3-2 in overtime, David Perron scoring at 2:46. The Blues scored first and never trailed. The Blues led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was David Perron's goal at 2:46 of overtime, which took the Blues' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Blues, 2.3 to 2.1; shots on goal were STL 28, CGY 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Jordan Binnington stopped 27 of 29 (.931); David Rittich stopped 25 of 28 (.893), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan O'Reilly (1 G, 1 A), 2. Matthew Tkachuk (1 G), 3. Alex Pietrangelo (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    R. O'Reilly1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    CGY
    M. Tkachuk1 G
  3. ★★★
    STL
    A. Pietrangelo2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
STLSTL1121100412328
CGYCGY0100102702229

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. STL
    wrap-aroundxG 0.02win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    3:17

2nd period

  1. STL
    snapxG 0.14win prob +14 pts
    2-0
    13:06

3rd period

  1. CGY
    wristxG 0.13win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    10:59
  2. CGY
    backhandxG 0.12win prob +35 pts
    2-2
    16:04

Overtime

  1. STL
    D. Perron(8)PPG
    wristxG 0.10win prob +51 pts
    3-2
    2:46

Penalties

STL 6 PIM·CGY 10 PIM

1st

  • 3:58STLZachary Sanford · Trippingdrawn by Andrew Mangiapane2 min
  • 9:42STLBrayden Schenn · Boardingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min
  • 11:28CGYSam Bennett · Hookingdrawn by Jacob de la Rose2 min

2nd

  • 9:54CGYMark Jankowski · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 12:49CGYMark Giordano · High stickingdrawn by Ivan Barbashev2 min

3rd

  • 15:39STLOskar Sundqvist · Roughingdrawn by Sam Bennett2 min
  • 15:39CGYSam Bennett · Chargingdrawn by Mackenzie MacEachern2 min

OT

  • 1:47CGYTJ Brodie · Holdingdrawn by Jaden Schwartz2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalSTL goalFinal: CGY 0%

Biggest swing: David Perron, OT 2:46 — STL 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.17S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.13M. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.13M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.13M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.12T. Hamonic · Goal · xG 0.12E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.11E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.09M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.09M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.08E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.08M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.08E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.08M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.08S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.07T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.07M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.07A. Mangiapane · Missed · xG 0.05T. Rieder · On goal · xG 0.04M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.04M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.03J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.02M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.02A. Mangiapane · Missed · xG 0.02M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.02M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.01M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.01T. Rieder · On goal · xG 0.01T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.01S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.01N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.01T. Rieder · Missed · xG 0.01M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.00T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.00M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.00T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY2 G · 2.1 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

STLvsCGY
2.33 G
All situations
2 G2.1
1.41 G
Even strength
2 G1.9
0.82 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
STL56%44%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.35 – 2.03

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

STLvsCGY
28
Shots on goal
29
47%
Faceoffs
53%
2/4
Power play
0/2
6
Penalty minutes
10
19
Hits
19
12
Blocked shots
8
7
Giveaways
24
9
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
St. Louis Blues skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
27A. PietrangeloD022-230.07100—26:15
90R. O'ReillyC112-250.560004323:14
55C. ParaykoD000-210.04040—23:11
19J. BouwmeesterD000+110.00030—22:22
72J. FaulkD000+120.08110—21:59
57D. PerronL112-220.37000—20:23
10B. SchennC000030.392023819:04
17J. SchwartzL000010.09010—18:00
18R. ThomasC000010.2701010016:08
21T. BozakC000000.000004015:03
12Z. SanfordL000-100.00122—14:29
29V. DunnD000000.04100—14:12
4C. GunnarssonD000000.00100—12:35
70O. SundqvistC011+130.280026712:25
49I. BarbashevL101+130.074005711:54
9S. BlaisL000010.05100—10:54
28M. MacEachernL011+120.05500—10:54
61J. de la RoseL000000.00200—10:18
St. Louis Blues goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
50J. Binnington(W)29272.9312.05+0.0562:43

Season series

STL leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).