Red Wings at Oilers 1-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Detroit Red Wings

Edmonton Oilers

▸2

FinalTV FS-D, SN1·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Detroit Red Wings 2-1. The Oilers scored first and never trailed. The Oilers led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was James Neal's goal at 7:39 of the second period, which took the Oilers' chances from 53% to 71%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 4.6 to 1.5; shots on goal were DET 26, EDM 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 78% of the time. Jonathan Bernier stopped 35 of 37 (.946), 1.2 goals saved above expected; Mikko Koskinen stopped 25 of 26 (.962), 0.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Ethan Bear (1 G), 2. Jonathan Bernier (35 saves, .946), 3. James Neal (1 G).

Three stars

★
E. Bear1 G
★★
J. Bernier35 saves, .946
★★★
J. Neal1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	013	16	07	126
EDM	014	215	08	237

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

J. Neal(9)
A. Chiasson (1), D. Nurse (5)
snapxG 0.19win prob +18 pts
0-1
7:39
E. Bear(2)
L. Draisaitl (10), D. Nurse (6)
snapxG 0.01win prob +16 pts
0-2
12:22
M. Green(1)
T. Bertuzzi (5), M. Bowey (1)
wristxG 0.04win prob +15 pts
1-2
16:37

Penalties

4 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

3:06Jacob de la Rose · Hookingdrawn by James Neal2 min
18:29Kris Russell · Slashingdrawn by Andreas Athanasiou2 min

2nd

13:55Trevor Daley · Holdingdrawn by Jujhar Khaira2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: EDM

100%

Biggest swing: James Neal, 2nd 7:39 — EDM 53% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 4.6 xG · 54 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 1.5 xG · 39 att EDM

2 G · 4.6 xG · 54 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.51 G
All situations: 2 G4.6; 1.41 G
Even strength: 2 G2.8; 0.10 G
Power play: 0 G0.5; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

22%78%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.53 – 3.13

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

26
Shots on goal: 37; 48%
Faceoffs: 52%; 0/1
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 2; 15
Hits: 24; 18
Blocked shots: 12; 16
Giveaways: 16; 3
Takeaways: 10

Box score

every player line

Detroit Red Wings skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
65D. DeKeyserD	0	0	0	-2	2	0.11	1	2	0	—	24:54
17F. HronekD	0	0	0	-2	2	0.04	0	3	0	—	22:24
25M. GreenD	1	0	1	+1	3	0.12	1	2	0	—	20:37
71D. LarkinC	0	0	0	0	4	0.25	0	0	0	50	20:33
22P. NemethD	0	0	0	0	3	0.06	0	1	0	—	20:24
39A. ManthaR	0	0	0	0	2	0.24	1	0	0	100	20:09
59T. BertuzziL	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	20:09
72A. AthanasiouC	0	0	0	-1	3	0.29	0	0	0	0	17:16
74M. BoweyD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.02	1	1	0	—	16:05
81F. NielsenC	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	1	0	0	29	15:16
51V. FilppulaC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.05	0	1	0	50	14:48
41L. GlendeningC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	3	4	0	43	14:08
83T. DaleyD	0	0	0	0	2	0.08	0	0	2	—	13:54
43D. HelmC	0	0	0	0	2	0.11	1	1	0	0	13:52
67T. HiroseL	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	0	0	0	—	12:37
61J. de la RoseL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	2	67	10:56
8J. AbdelkaderL	0	0	0	0	0	0.03	2	1	0	—	10:52
73A. ErneL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	0	—	09:03

Detroit Red Wings goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
45J. Bernier(L)	37	35	2	.946	3.23	+1.23	58:03

Season series

Tied 1-1

Oct 181@2this game
Oct 291@3Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Detroit Red Wings at Edmonton Oilers

2nd period

1st

2nd

Box score