Blues at Jets 3-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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St. Louis Blues

▸3

Winnipeg Jets

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Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Winnipeg Jets 3-2. The Blues came back from two goals down. The Jets led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jaden Schwartz's goal at 19:45 of the third period, which took the Blues' chances from 48% to 99%. Expected goals favored the Blues, 2.8 to 2.5; shots on goal were STL 29, WPG 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Jordan Binnington stopped 29 of 31 (.935), 0.5 goals saved above expected; Connor Hellebuyck stopped 26 of 29 (.897).

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	015	06	38	329
WPG	212	010	09	231

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

A. Lowry(1)
B. Tanev (1), A. Copp (4)
wristxG 0.27win prob +11 pts
0-1
0:12
K. Hayes(2)
D. Byfuglien (5)
wristxG 0.22win prob +14 pts
0-2
13:35

3rd period

R. O'Reilly(2)PPG
D. Perron (2), B. Schenn (1)
wristxG 0.35win prob +14 pts
1-2
1:29
B. Schenn(1)
O. Sundqvist (2), J. Bouwmeester (3)
backhandxG 0.06win prob +35 pts
2-2
13:52
J. Schwartz(1)
T. Bozak (1)
deflectedxG 0.18win prob +51 pts
3-2
19:45

Penalties

6 PIM·

2 PIM

2nd

9:31Robert Thomas · High sticking double minordrawn by Dmitry Kulikov4 min
19:39Jacob Trouba · Roughingdrawn by Vladimir Tarasenko2 min

3rd

6:10Joel Edmundson · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: WPG

Biggest swing: Jaden Schwartz, 3rd 19:45 — STL 48% → 99%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 2.5 xG · 40 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.8 xG · 45 att WPG

2 G · 2.5 xG · 40 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.83 G
All situations: 2 G2.5; 2.32 G
Even strength: 2 G2.2; 0.51 G
Power play: 0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

56%44%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.79 – 2.48

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

29
Shots on goal: 31; 49%
Faceoffs: 51%; 1/1
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 2; 14
Hits: 24; 9
Blocked shots: 14; 6
Giveaways: 12; 5
Takeaways: 4

Box score

every player line

St. Louis Blues skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
27A. PietrangeloD	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	2	0	—	25:34
19J. BouwmeesterD	0	1	1	+1	2	0.02	2	0	0	—	22:05
55C. ParaykoD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.11	1	2	0	—	21:37
90R. O'ReillyC	1	0	1	-1	2	0.39	0	0	0	40	19:48
57D. PerronL	0	1	1	0	1	0.28	0	0	0	—	18:53
4C. GunnarssonD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.02	0	2	0	—	18:23
6J. EdmundsonD	0	0	0	-1	3	0.12	1	1	2	—	17:44
10B. SchennC	1	1	2	0	4	0.34	0	0	0	50	17:32
70O. SundqvistC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.12	2	0	0	55	17:25
91V. TarasenkoR	0	0	0	-1	2	0.42	1	0	0	—	16:36
21T. BozakC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.14	1	1	0	64	15:46
17J. SchwartzL	1	0	1	+2	3	0.33	1	0	0	—	15:29
18R. ThomasC	0	0	0	0	3	0.21	1	0	4	0	14:15
7P. MaroonL	0	0	0	0	1	0.10	1	0	0	—	13:21
29V. DunnD	0	0	0	-2	1	0.03	0	0	0	—	13:15
20A. SteenL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	10:42
49I. BarbashevL	0	0	0	-1	1	0.08	1	0	0	50	09:26
15R. FabbriC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.09	2	1	0	0	06:09

St. Louis Blues goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
50J. Binnington(W)	31	29	2	.935	2.52	+0.52	60:00

Series

STL leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets

1st period

3rd period

2nd

3rd

Box score