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Lightning at Senators
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸5
Ottawa Senators
2
FinalTV SUN, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Ottawa Senators 5-2. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mikhail Sergachev's goal at 7:48 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 47% to 65%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 2.4 to 1.4; shots on goal were TBL 26, OTT 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 22 of 24 (.917), 0.6 goals below expected; Craig Anderson stopped 21 of 26 (.808), 2.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Yanni Gourde (2 G, 1 A), 2. Nikita Kucherov (3 A), 3. Mikhail Sergachev (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    Y. Gourde2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov3 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    M. Sergachev1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL15210211526
OTTOTT1110419224

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    Y. Gourde(21)
    N. Kucherov (84), B. Point (51)
    deflectedxG 0.08win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    12:04
  2. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(21)
    D. DeMelo (18), J. Pageau (8)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    18:48

2nd period

  1. TBL
    M. Sergachev(6)
    N. Kucherov (85), B. Coburn (17)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +18 pts
    2-1
    7:48
  2. TBL
    B. Point(41)
    Y. Gourde (25), N. Kucherov (86)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +18 pts
    3-1
    13:43

3rd period

  1. OTT
    M. Veronneau(2)PPG
    R. Balcers (8), C. Wolanin (8)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +16 pts
    3-2
    4:34
  2. TBL
    Y. Gourde(22)
    B. Coburn (18), M. Sergachev (25)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +11 pts
    4-2
    5:22
  3. TBL
    S. Stamkos(42)
    M. Joseph (13), O. Palat (25)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +1 pts
    5-2
    16:55

Penalties

TBL 13 PIM·OTT 11 PIM

1st

  • 9:39TBLTyler Johnson · Hookingdrawn by Oscar Lindberg2 min

2nd

  • 8:51OTTBrian Gibbons · Trippingdrawn by Ondrej Palat2 min
  • 15:34OTTColin White · Slashingdrawn by Adam Erne2 min

3rd

  • 3:21OTTZack Smith · Fightingdrawn by Cameron Gaunce5 min
  • 3:21TBLCameron Gaunce · Fightingdrawn by Zack Smith5 min
  • 3:21TBLCameron Gaunce · Slashingdrawn by Zack Smith2 min
  • 5:55OTTBrady Tkachuk · Interferencedrawn by Jan Rutta2 min
  • 6:24TBLNikita Kucherov · Interferencedrawn by Brian Gibbons2 min
  • 9:17TBLBraydon Coburn · Slashingdrawn by Brian Gibbons2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalTBL goalFinal: OTT 0%

Biggest swing: Mikhail Sergachev, 2nd 7:48 — TBL 47% → 65%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.17C. Tierney · Missed · xG 0.14C. White · On goal · xG 0.11C. White · Missed · xG 0.08A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.08M. Veronneau · Goal · xG 0.07J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.07B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.07O. Lindberg · Missed · xG 0.06C. Tierney · Missed · xG 0.06Z. Smith · On goal · xG 0.06B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.04T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.04O. Lindberg · Missed · xG 0.03M. Veronneau · On goal · xG 0.03B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.03A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.03A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.03A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.03C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.02C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.02D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.02B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.02C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.01B. Harpur · Missed · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01B. Harpur · On goal · xG 0.01D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.00M. Paajarvi · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT2 G · 1.4 xG · 32 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsOTT
2.45 G
All situations
2 G1.4
1.85 G
Even strength
1 G0.9
0.50 G
Power play
1 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 68 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL69%31%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.33 – 1.39

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsOTT
26
Shots on goal
24
49%
Faceoffs
51%
0/3
Power play
1/4
13
Penalty minutes
11
36
Hits
37
10
Blocked shots
20
10
Giveaways
17
3
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
27R. McDonaghD000020.08120—25:09
81E. CernakD000+130.05620—23:14
98M. SergachevD112+260.15200—20:06
86N. KucherovR033+310.12002—19:36
21B. PointC112+310.250104219:00
55B. CoburnD022+100.01612—18:53
37Y. GourdeC213+320.231005018:23
91S. StamkosC101+130.690005017:45
18O. PalatL011+100.14300—16:12
44J. RuttaD000+220.09010—15:41
71A. CirelliC000-110.001107814:16
13C. PaquetteC000+100.002003312:58
7M. JosephR011+100.00300—12:48
10J. MillerC000010.10300012:45
17A. KillornL000010.06110—12:10
33C. GaunceD000+210.03207—12:07
9T. JohnsonC000020.36012011:34
73A. ErneL000000.0050010010:37
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)24222.9171.40-0.6059:44

Season series

TBL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).