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Senators at Lightning
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
▸6
Tampa Bay Lightning
4
FinalTV SUN, CITY·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 6-4. The Senators came back from two goals down. The Lightning led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan Dzingel's goal at 10:30 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 48% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 3.7 to 2.8; shots on goal were OTT 34, TBL 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Craig Anderson stopped 24 of 28 (.857), 1.2 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 28 of 34 (.824), 3.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Brady Tkachuk (1 G, 1 A), 2. Mathieu Joseph (2 G, 1 A), 3. Matt Duchene (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    M. Joseph2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    M. Duchene1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT21308413634
TBLTBL11131205428

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    M. Duchene(6)
    C. White (5)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.11win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    4:58
  2. OTT
    B. Ryan(5)
    C. Ceci (3)
    backhandxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    7:21
  3. TBL
    M. Joseph(3)
    M. Sergachev (6), B. Coburn (4)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +15 pts
    2-1
    8:49

2nd period

  1. TBL
    V. Hedman(3)PPG
    A. Vasilevskiy (1)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +11 pts
    2-2
    0:39
  2. TBL
    B. Coburn(3)
    A. Killorn (4), M. Joseph (2)
    snapxG 0.02win prob +18 pts
    2-3
    9:15
  3. TBL
    M. Joseph(4)
    A. Killorn (5), A. Cirelli (3)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +16 pts
    2-4
    14:32

3rd period

  1. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(4)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.12win prob +15 pts
    3-4
    0:50
  2. OTT
    C. White(6)PPG
    B. Tkachuk (4), B. Ryan (6)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +23 pts
    4-4
    8:41
  3. OTT
    R. Dzingel(8)
    M. Duchene (12)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +33 pts
    5-4
    10:30
  4. OTT
    M. Stone(7)PPG
    M. Duchene (13), B. Ryan (7)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +1 pts
    6-4
    19:48

Penalties

OTT 6 PIM·TBL 8 PIM

1st

  • 10:38OTTChris Tierney · Hookingdrawn by Slater Koekkoek2 min
  • 17:13TBLDanick Martel · Slashingdrawn by Maxime Lajoie2 min

2nd

  • 0:22OTTChristian Jaros · Hookingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min
  • 3:55TBLVictor Hedman · Trippingdrawn by Tom Pyatt2 min
  • 11:04OTTMax McCormick · Slashingdrawn by J.T. Miller2 min

3rd

  • 8:37TBLMathieu Joseph · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 19:24TBLVictor Hedman · Trippingdrawn by Chris Tierney2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalOTT goalFinal: TBL 0%

Biggest swing: Ryan Dzingel, 3rd 10:30 — OTT 48% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.22V. Hedman · Goal · xG 0.17A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.15Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.13A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.13S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.12B. Point · On goal · xG 0.12B. Point · On goal · xG 0.11J. Miller · Missed · xG 0.11V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.10M. Joseph · Goal · xG 0.10B. Point · On goal · xG 0.09S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.09Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.09D. Martel · Missed · xG 0.09N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.07C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.07D. Martel · On goal · xG 0.07A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.07D. Girardi · Missed · xG 0.06D. Martel · Missed · xG 0.06A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.06M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.05N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.04R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.04D. Martel · On goal · xG 0.04S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.04A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.04V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.04D. Girardi · On goal · xG 0.04A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.03D. Martel · On goal · xG 0.03M. Joseph · Goal · xG 0.03S. Koekkoek · On goal · xG 0.03B. Point · On goal · xG 0.03A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.02B. Coburn · Goal · xG 0.02S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.02D. Girardi · On goal · xG 0.02B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.01
TBL4 G · 2.8 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsTBL
3.76 G
All situations
4 G2.8
2.14 G
Even strength
3 G2.3
0.72 G
Power play
1 G0.5
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT51%49%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.86 – 2.82

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsTBL
34
Shots on goal
28
55%
Faceoffs
45%
2/4
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
8
18
Hits
24
20
Blocked shots
9
4
Giveaways
5
8
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
5C. CeciD011+210.10130—24:07
61M. StoneR101+131.28200—22:23
95M. DucheneC123+240.351005921:56
72T. ChabotD000020.10160—21:27
58M. LajoieD000+120.05020—20:57
36C. WhiteC112+220.230005818:49
9B. RyanR123-240.50010—16:49
7B. TkachukL112+130.22200—16:39
71C. TierneyC000-250.180026716:35
18R. DzingelC101+220.270005016:08
74M. BorowieckiD000000.00210—16:00
2D. DeMeloD000010.02310—14:35
89M. BoedkerL000-220.16100—13:39
83C. JarosD000000.00132—13:15
56M. PaajarviL000010.00110—12:17
10T. PyattL000+100.000102711:56
17M. McCormickL000020.23102—10:46
6C. WidemanD000-100.00210—07:25
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41C. Anderson(W)28244.8572.84-1.1660:00

Season series

TBL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).