Skip to content
Maple Leafs at Senators
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
Ottawa Senators
▸4
FinalTV SNO, CBC·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-2. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Cody Ceci's goal at 6:41 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 52% to 80%. Expected goals were close — TOR 2.5, OTT 2.4; shots on goal were TOR 44, OTT 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Garret Sparks stopped 18 of 21 (.857), 1.5 goals below expected; Craig Anderson stopped 42 of 44 (.955). Three stars: 1. Craig Anderson (42 saves, .955), 2. Anthony Duclair (2 G, 1 A), 3. Brady Tkachuk (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    C. Anderson42 saves, .955
  2. ★★
    OTT
    A. Duclair2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR018012214244
OTTOTT072926422

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

  1. OTT
    A. Duclair(17)
    O. Lindberg (11), M. Paajarvi (7)
    slapxG 0.08win prob +17 pts
    0-1
    5:24
  2. OTT
    M. Paajarvi(11)
    A. Duclair (14)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +16 pts
    0-2
    14:43

3rd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(37)PPG
    M. Marner (66), M. Rielly (51)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +13 pts
    1-2
    5:02
  2. TOR
    C. Brown(8)
    R. Hainsey (18)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +27 pts
    2-2
    5:29
  3. OTT
    C. Ceci(7)
    B. Tkachuk (21), C. White (24)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +28 pts
    2-3
    6:41
  4. OTT
    A. Duclair(18)EN
    B. Tkachuk (22), C. White (25)
    snapxG 0.88win prob +1 pts
    2-4
    18:47

Penalties

TOR 16 PIM·OTT 16 PIM

1st

  • 19:30OTTChristian Jaros · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

2nd

  • 3:03TORKasperi Kapanen · Hookingdrawn by Thomas Chabot2 min

3rd

  • 1:32OTTBrian Gibbons · Interferencedrawn by William Nylander2 min
  • 4:04OTTBrady Tkachuk · Interferencedrawn by Travis Dermott2 min
  • 11:13TORAndreas Johnsson · Cross checkingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 17:53TORAndreas Johnsson · Cross checkingdrawn by Anthony Duclair2 min
  • 19:32TORNazem Kadri · Misconductdrawn by Jean-Gabriel Pageau10 min
  • 19:32OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau · Misconductdrawn by Nazem Kadri10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalTOR goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Cody Ceci, 3rd 6:41 — OTT 52% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Duclair · Goal · xG 0.88B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.19B. Gibbons · Missed · xG 0.16Z. Smith · Missed · xG 0.14C. Ceci · Goal · xG 0.13M. Paajarvi · Goal · xG 0.11M. Veronneau · Missed · xG 0.10B. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.09A. Duclair · Goal · xG 0.08M. Paajarvi · Missed · xG 0.08B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.07B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.04C. Tierney · Missed · xG 0.04B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.03C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.02B. Harpur · Missed · xG 0.02O. Lindberg · On goal · xG 0.02C. Jaros · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.01M. Paajarvi · On goal · xG 0.01J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.01B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.01C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.00C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.00C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT4 G · 2.4 xG · 30 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsOTT
2.52 G
All situations
3 G2.4
2.11 G
Even strength
3 G1.5
0.41 G
Power play
0 G0.0
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR69%31%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.46 – 1.50

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsOTT
44
Shots on goal
22
62%
Faceoffs
38%
1/3
Power play
1/3
16
Penalty minutes
16
29
Hits
26
13
Blocked shots
23
11
Giveaways
22
5
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD011-150.08020—25:23
8J. MuzzinD000040.05100—22:37
16M. MarnerR011040.27020—22:18
11Z. HymanL000020.091006720:36
2R. HainseyD011+100.02520—20:34
91J. TavaresC000030.330006020:33
34A. MatthewsC101-170.541004418:16
43N. KadriC000-120.0660107517:51
23T. DermottD000-340.24320—17:43
22N. ZaitsevD000+110.02210—16:47
29W. NylanderR000-170.250007516:08
24K. KapanenR000000.00202—15:01
18A. JohnssonL000-120.20304—14:54
12P. MarleauC000-110.15110014:24
52M. MarincinD000-200.00120—12:29
28C. BrownR101020.19000—08:18
63T. EnnisR000-100.00210—06:27
33F. GauthierC000000.001008005:21
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40G. Sparks(L)21183.8571.50-1.5059:26

Season series

OTT leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).