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Senators at Maple Leafs
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
4
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
FinalTV SN, SN360·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Ottawa Senators 5-4. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Maple Leafs led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Morgan Rielly's goal at 9:12 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 52% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 3.1 to 2.5; shots on goal were OTT 44, TOR 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Craig Anderson stopped 25 of 30 (.833), 2.5 goals below expected; Frederik Andersen stopped 40 of 44 (.909), 0.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Zach Hyman (1 G, 1 A), 2. John Tavares (1 G, 1 A), 3. Magnus Paajarvi (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    Z. Hyman1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    M. Paajarvi2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT111116217444
TORTOR11131217530

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    Z. Hyman(10)
    M. Marner (44), J. Tavares (26)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    7:46
  2. OTT
    M. Paajarvi(6)
    J. Pageau (1), M. Lajoie (8)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    17:18

2nd period

  1. OTT
    M. Duchene(22)
    R. Dzingel (20), B. Ryan (20)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    1:35
  2. TOR
    A. Johnsson(13)
    F. Gauthier (8)
    backhandxG 0.08win prob +21 pts
    2-2
    14:20
  3. TOR
    A. Matthews(24)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.07win prob +21 pts
    2-3
    16:29
  4. TOR
    J. Tavares(32)
    M. Marner (45), K. Kapanen (16)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +16 pts
    2-4
    18:20

3rd period

  1. OTT
    T. Chabot(11)
    B. Tkachuk (13), M. Stone (30)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +15 pts
    3-4
    0:40
  2. OTT
    M. Paajarvi(7)
    Z. Smith (15), J. Pageau (2)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +25 pts
    4-4
    3:59
  3. TOR
    M. Rielly(14)
    Z. Hyman (13)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +30 pts
    4-5
    9:12

Penalties

OTT 2 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

2nd

  • 5:48TORJake Gardiner · High sticking double minordrawn by Zack Smith4 min

3rd

  • 11:16OTTMark Borowiecki · Holdingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalOTT goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Morgan Rielly, 3rd 9:12 — TOR 52% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Rielly · Goal · xG 0.17M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.15F. Gauthier · On goal · xG 0.13P. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.12J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.12Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.11M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.11N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.11J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.10N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.10J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.10Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.09A. Johnsson · Goal · xG 0.08J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.08F. Gauthier · Missed · xG 0.07P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.07M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.07Z. Hyman · Goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.06N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.06M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.05P. Marleau · Missed · xG 0.05N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.04W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.04J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.03J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Gardiner · Missed · xG 0.02N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.02K. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.02R. Hainsey · On goal · xG 0.02T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.02N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.01R. Hainsey · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.01J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.01R. Hainsey · On goal · xG 0.01
TOR5 G · 2.5 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsTOR
3.14 G
All situations
5 G2.5
2.64 G
Even strength
5 G2.2
0.50 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT58%42%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.98 – 2.51

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsTOR
44
Shots on goal
30
59%
Faceoffs
41%
0/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
27
Hits
13
21
Blocked shots
13
12
Giveaways
13
10
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD101-120.32130—23:53
61M. StoneR011020.27110—21:21
5C. CeciD000030.09420—20:46
2D. DeMeloD000-140.09220—20:26
58M. LajoieD011010.10130—20:03
36C. WhiteC000+110.222205819:18
95M. DucheneC101-230.220006417:34
9B. RyanR011-240.21110—16:40
18R. DzingelC011-350.40010016:36
7B. TkachukL011+140.28200—16:22
74M. BorowieckiD000040.10502—16:16
44J. PageauC022+120.131009116:09
15Z. SmithC011+120.23200015:24
67B. HarpurD000000.00110—15:06
56M. PaajarviL202+150.32210—14:43
71C. TierneyC000-110.000205012:10
38R. BalcersL000010.06020—09:16
53J. RodewaldR000000.00200—07:06
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41C. Anderson(L)30255.8332.52-2.4858:51

Season series

OTT leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).