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Panthers at Maple Leafs
NHL

Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Florida Panthers
5
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸7
FinalTV FS-F, TSN4·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Florida Panthers 7-5. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 5-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jake Muzzin's goal at 4:21 of the first period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 66% to 79%. Expected goals were close — FLA 3.2, TOR 3.3; shots on goal were FLA 36, TOR 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Roberto Luongo stopped 28 of 33 (.848), 2.0 goals below expected; Frederik Andersen stopped 31 of 36 (.861), 1.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. John Tavares (4 G), 2. Jayce Hawryluk (2 G, 1 A), 3. Zach Hyman (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    J. Tavares4 G
  2. ★★
    FLA
    J. Hawryluk2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    Z. Hyman1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA29012315536
TORTOR41511329737

Scoring

12 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    P. Marleau(16)
    N. Kadri (25), K. Kapanen (24)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    2:06
  2. TOR
    J. Muzzin(9)
    A. Johnsson (22), N. Zaitsev (11)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    4:21
  3. TOR
    J. Tavares(42)PPG
    M. Marner (63), A. Matthews (34)
    backhandxG 0.38win prob +7 pts
    0-3
    11:05
  4. FLA
    J. Hawryluk(6)
    M. Hoffman (33), A. Ekblad (23)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +9 pts
    1-3
    13:23
  5. TOR
    J. Tavares(43)
    Z. Hyman (17), W. Nylander (19)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +9 pts
    1-4
    15:04
  6. FLA
    M. Matheson(8)
    V. Trocheck (22), J. Hawryluk (5)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +9 pts
    2-4
    16:25

2nd period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(44)
    M. Rielly (49), W. Nylander (20)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +9 pts
    2-5
    5:51

3rd period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(45)
    M. Marner (64), Z. Hyman (18)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +2 pts
    2-6
    3:57
  2. FLA
    J. Huberdeau(24)
    A. Barkov (54), E. Dadonov (37)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +1 pts
    3-6
    5:34
  3. TOR
    Z. Hyman(20)
    M. Rielly (50), M. Marner (65)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +1 pts
    3-7
    6:51
  4. FLA
    J. Huberdeau(25)PPG
    E. Dadonov (38), M. Hoffman (34)
    wristxG 0.05
    4-7
    13:36
  5. FLA
    J. Hawryluk(7)
    D. Malgin (8), I. McCoshen (1)
    wristxG 0.17
    5-7
    17:36

Penalties

FLA 8 PIM·TOR 8 PIM

1st

  • 10:46FLAJoshua Brown · Slashingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min
  • 18:48TORZach Hyman · Roughingdrawn by Jayce Hawryluk2 min

2nd

  • 2:43FLAFrank Vatrano · Boardingdrawn by Justin Holl2 min
  • 6:04FLAMike Matheson · Trippingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min

3rd

  • 12:19TORPatrick Marleau · Hookingdrawn by Riley Sheahan2 min
  • 14:28TORRon Hainsey · Roughingdrawn by Jayce Hawryluk2 min
  • 14:28TORRon Hainsey · Roughingdrawn by Jayce Hawryluk2 min
  • 14:28FLAJayce Hawryluk · Roughingdrawn by Ron Hainsey2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalFLA goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Jake Muzzin, 1st 4:21 — TOR 66% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.38P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.23J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.16P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.15W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.15N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.14Z. Hyman · Goal · xG 0.14P. Marleau · Goal · xG 0.13M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.11M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.11J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.10W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.09N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.09T. Moore · On goal · xG 0.09Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.08K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.08Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.08J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.07P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.05J. Muzzin · Goal · xG 0.05N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.05K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.04K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.04J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.04M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.04K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.04N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.03J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.03J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.02F. Gauthier · Missed · xG 0.02A. Johnsson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Marincin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · Missed · xG 0.02J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.02M. Marincin · Missed · xG 0.02N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.02N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.01K. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.01W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.01R. Hainsey · On goal · xG 0.01J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.01
TOR7 G · 3.3 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsTOR
3.25 G
All situations
7 G3.3
2.44 G
Even strength
6 G2.3
0.31 G
Power play
1 G0.9
0.50 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 103 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA49%51%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.15 – 3.23

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsTOR
36
Shots on goal
37
45%
Faceoffs
55%
1/3
Power play
1/3
8
Penalty minutes
8
21
Hits
25
17
Blocked shots
15
10
Giveaways
16
6
Takeaways
15

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3K. YandleD000000.03010—24:20
5A. EkbladD011+130.19040—23:19
68M. HoffmanC022040.34000022:28
16A. BarkovC011000.050004822:08
19M. MathesonD101+130.15012—20:26
63E. DadonovL022020.17100—19:25
21V. TrocheckC011+170.653203218:42
2J. BrownD000-110.03122—18:32
11J. HuberdeauL202030.22100—18:02
15R. SheahanC000-120.532005615:29
8J. HawrylukR213030.37322—14:31
52M. WeegarD000-300.02010—13:52
12I. McCoshenD011-230.08310—12:51
22T. BrouwerR000-210.02220—12:19
62D. MalginC011+100.00200012:15
72F. VatranoR000-140.24102—12:07
88J. McGinnL000-200.04210—09:10
95H. BorgstromC000-200.050005007:54
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1R. Luongo(L)33285.8483.00-2.0053:30
33S. Montembeault422.5000.28-1.7204:21

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).