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Sabres at Hurricanes
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
2
Carolina Hurricanes
▸4
FinalTV FS-CR, MSG-B·PNC Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-2. The Sabres scored first; the Hurricanes answered. The Hurricanes led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Justin Williams's goal at 17:09 of the second period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 74% to 90%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 2.9 to 2.7; shots on goal were BUF 37, CAR 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Linus Ullmark stopped 25 of 29 (.862), 1.1 goals below expected; Curtis McElhinney stopped 35 of 37 (.946), 0.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jordan Staal (1 G), 2. Curtis McElhinney (35 saves, .946), 3. Lucas Wallmark (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    J. Staal1 G
  2. ★★
    CAR
    C. McElhinney35 saves, .946
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    L. Wallmark1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF17013117237
CARCAR11121216429

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    J. Skinner(37)
    M. Hunwick (2), S. Reinhart (41)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    2:18
  2. CAR
    L. Wallmark(9)
    J. Martinook (7), B. Pesce (18)
    wristxG 0.34win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    13:52

2nd period

  1. CAR
    A. Svechnikov(18)
    T. Teravainen (48), S. Aho (48)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +16 pts
    1-2
    1:07
  2. CAR
    J. Williams(21)
    J. Faulk (21), N. Niederreiter (25)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    17:09

3rd period

  1. CAR
    J. Staal(7)
    M. Ferland (19), D. Hamilton (18)
    backhandxG 0.07win prob +1 pts
    1-4
    15:46
  2. BUF
    Z. Girgensons(4)
    B. Montour (23), J. Larsson (6)
    wristxG 0.04
    2-4
    18:59

Penalties

BUF 7 PIM·CAR 9 PIM

1st

  • 16:54CARJordan Martinook · Trippingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min

2nd

  • 1:54CARMicheal Ferland · Fightingdrawn by Casey Nelson5 min
  • 1:54BUFCasey Nelson · Fightingdrawn by Micheal Ferland5 min

3rd

  • 3:07BUFZach Bogosian · Holdingdrawn by Justin Williams2 min
  • 8:39CARTrevor van Riemsdyk · Holdingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalBUF goalFinal: CAR 100%

Biggest swing: Justin Williams, 2nd 17:09 — CAR 74% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
L. Wallmark · Goal · xG 0.34J. Williams · On goal · xG 0.17A. Svechnikov · Goal · xG 0.17J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.16W. Foegele · Missed · xG 0.15A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.15N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.15J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.13N. Niederreiter · Missed · xG 0.13B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.12T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.11W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.11T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.10J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.10B. McGinn · Missed · xG 0.10J. Staal · Goal · xG 0.07J. Faulk · Missed · xG 0.07J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.07S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.06W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.04J. Williams · On goal · xG 0.04N. Niederreiter · Missed · xG 0.04B. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.04J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.03D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.03D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.02J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.02W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.02B. McGinn · Missed · xG 0.02J. Williams · Goal · xG 0.02J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.02J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.02A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.02H. Fleury · On goal · xG 0.01J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.01B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.01H. Fleury · Missed · xG 0.01L. Wallmark · On goal · xG 0.01H. Fleury · Missed · xG 0.01J. Williams · On goal · xG 0.01J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR4 G · 2.9 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsCAR
2.72 G
All situations
4 G2.9
2.42 G
Even strength
4 G2.5
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF45%55%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.64 – 2.90

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsCAR
37
Shots on goal
29
50%
Faceoffs
50%
0/2
Power play
0/1
7
Penalty minutes
9
22
Hits
32
11
Blocked shots
15
5
Giveaways
12
6
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55R. RistolainenD000020.03210—25:34
62B. MontourD011020.11210—23:48
26R. DahlinD000040.11330—22:13
4Z. BogosianD000-110.05022—20:57
9J. EichelC000060.300005820:24
23S. ReinhartC011-110.23010019:59
53J. SkinnerL101060.330002519:18
22J. LarssonL011+100.074106215:32
28Z. GirgensonsC101+130.17300015:03
71E. RodriguesC000-150.211004614:54
43C. ShearyL000-120.21100—14:15
48M. HunwickD011-100.00020—13:59
37C. MittelstadtC000-220.220002513:32
21K. OkposoR000+100.12100—13:19
29J. PominvilleR000-200.00000—12:33
92A. NylanderL000010.14100—11:19
8C. NelsonD000-210.00105—11:06
72T. ThompsonC000-210.36300011:01
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35L. Ullmark(L)29254.8622.92-1.0859:14

Season series

CAR leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).