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Sabres at Hurricanes
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
3
Carolina Hurricanes
▸4
FinalTV NHLN-US, FS-CR·PNC Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-3. The Hurricanes scored first and never trailed. The Hurricanes led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sebastian Aho's goal at 5:42 of the second period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 53% to 70%. Expected goals were close — BUF 2.8, CAR 3.0; shots on goal were BUF 33, CAR 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Carter Hutton stopped 26 of 30 (.867), 1.4 goals below expected; Curtis McElhinney stopped 30 of 33 (.909). Three stars: 1. Micheal Ferland (1 G, 2 A), 2. Sebastian Aho (2 G), 3. Teuvo Teravainen (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    M. Ferland1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    CAR
    S. Aho2 G
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    T. Teravainen2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF11218113333
CARCAR19311010430

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    M. Ferland(13)
    T. Teravainen (25), J. Slavin (12)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    10:25
  2. BUF
    J. Skinner(30)PPG
    R. Dahlin (18), S. Reinhart (32)
    deflectedxG 0.13win prob +11 pts
    1-1
    19:39

2nd period

  1. CAR
    J. Williams(12)
    T. van Riemsdyk (7)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +16 pts
    1-2
    4:30
  2. BUF
    J. Pominville(10)
    E. Rodrigues (11), R. Dahlin (19)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +17 pts
    2-2
    5:00
  3. CAR
    S. Aho(17)
    M. Ferland (9)
    deflectedxG 0.07win prob +17 pts
    2-3
    5:42
  4. CAR
    S. Aho(18)
    M. Ferland (10), T. Teravainen (26)
    deflectedxG 0.12win prob +16 pts
    2-4
    12:27

3rd period

  1. BUF
    K. Okposo(7)
    Z. Girgensons (6), M. Scandella (6)
    deflectedxG 0.02win prob +6 pts
    3-4
    16:48

Penalties

BUF 6 PIM·CAR 10 PIM

1st

  • 12:09BUFRasmus Ristolainen · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 19:31CARSaku Maenalanen · Trippingdrawn by Vladimir Sobotka2 min

2nd

  • 1:51CARAndrei Svechnikov · Hookingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 16:41BUFJohan Larsson · Roughingdrawn by Justin Faulk2 min
  • 16:41CARJustin Faulk · Roughingdrawn by Johan Larsson2 min
  • 16:41CARJustin Faulk · Roughingdrawn by Johan Larsson2 min
  • 19:25BUFKyle Okposo · Holdingdrawn by Micheal Ferland2 min

3rd

  • 7:34CARJordan Martinook · Trippingdrawn by Johan Larsson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalBUF goalFinal: CAR 100%

Biggest swing: Sebastian Aho, 2nd 5:42 — CAR 53% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.44S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.18W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.16W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.15G. McKegg · Missed · xG 0.15M. Ferland · On goal · xG 0.14M. Ferland · Missed · xG 0.14T. Teravainen · Missed · xG 0.13S. Aho · Goal · xG 0.12C. de Haan · On goal · xG 0.11B. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.11B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.10C. de Haan · On goal · xG 0.09B. McGinn · Missed · xG 0.09J. Williams · Goal · xG 0.09G. McKegg · On goal · xG 0.07S. Aho · Goal · xG 0.07D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.06T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.06D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.06J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.06T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.05J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.05G. McKegg · On goal · xG 0.04J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.03W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.03T. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.03A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.02J. Williams · Missed · xG 0.02S. Maenalanen · On goal · xG 0.02J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.02J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.02T. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.01D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.01T. Teravainen · Missed · xG 0.01D. Hamilton · Missed · xG 0.01B. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ferland · Goal · xG 0.01B. Pesce · On goal · xG 0.01J. Williams · Missed · xG 0.00J. Williams · On goal · xG 0.00J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR4 G · 3.0 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsCAR
2.83 G
All situations
4 G3.0
2.02 G
Even strength
4 G2.5
0.81 G
Power play
0 G0.0
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF55%45%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.77 – 2.48

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsCAR
33
Shots on goal
30
48%
Faceoffs
52%
1/4
Power play
0/2
6
Penalty minutes
10
18
Hits
38
11
Blocked shots
11
7
Giveaways
17
6
Takeaways
16

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55R. RistolainenD000+110.08412—26:05
53J. SkinnerL101-240.271002021:47
26R. DahlinD022030.14030—21:40
24L. PilutD000-110.14000—21:15
23S. ReinhartC011030.48210020:47
4Z. BogosianD000-130.12010—19:33
9J. EichelC000-210.182004418:34
43C. ShearyL000010.0100010015:49
19J. McCabeD000-200.07010—15:49
71E. RodriguesC011+130.411101715:37
17V. SobotkaC000020.060007115:22
6M. ScandellaD011-120.03110—14:03
72T. ThompsonC000-310.03100013:36
22J. LarssonL000+200.001126212:41
21K. OkposoR101+120.113123312:31
29J. PominvilleR101040.48000—11:15
37C. MittelstadtC000-200.00100011:13
28Z. GirgensonsC011-120.17100010:31
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40C. Hutton(L)30264.8672.55-1.4557:52

Season series

CAR leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).