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Hurricanes at Sabres
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
▸6
Buffalo Sabres
5
Final/OTTV FS-SE, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Buffalo Sabres 6-5 in overtime, Teuvo Teravainen scoring at 3:25. The Hurricanes scored first and never trailed. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Teuvo Teravainen's goal at 3:25 of overtime, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.7 to 2.8; shots on goal were CAR 30, BUF 39. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 63% of the time. Curtis McElhinney stopped 34 of 39 (.872), 1.4 goals below expected; Linus Ullmark stopped 24 of 30 (.800), 3.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Teuvo Teravainen (2 G, 1 A), 2. Jeff Skinner (2 G), 3. Sebastian Aho (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    T. Teravainen2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    J. Skinner2 G
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    S. Aho2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
CARCAR171931113630
BUFBUF0152143901539

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    J. Faulk(5)
    S. Aho (37), J. Williams (19)
    slapxG 0.08win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    4:04

2nd period

  1. CAR
    T. Teravainen(13)
    J. Martinook (4), A. Svechnikov (11)
    backhandxG 0.15win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    1:37
  2. BUF
    E. Rodrigues(8)
    C. Sheary (15), R. Ristolainen (29)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    8:15
  3. BUF
    J. Pominville(12)
    Z. Bogosian (11)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +21 pts
    2-2
    15:14

3rd period

  1. CAR
    G. McKegg(4)
    T. van Riemsdyk (9), C. de Haan (11)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +23 pts
    3-2
    1:54
  2. BUF
    J. Skinner(32)
    R. Ristolainen (30), L. Pilut (5)
    backhandxG 0.18win prob +28 pts
    3-3
    5:48
  3. CAR
    B. McGinn(5)
    J. Martinook (5), A. Svechnikov (12)
    wristxG 0.28win prob +34 pts
    4-3
    11:03
  4. CAR
    N. Niederreiter(15)PPG
    T. Teravainen (34), S. Aho (38)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +6 pts
    5-3
    14:58
  5. BUF
    M. Scandella(4)
    S. Reinhart (35), C. Mittelstadt (11)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +9 pts
    5-4
    15:41
  6. BUF
    J. Skinner(33)
    S. Reinhart (36), J. Eichel (40)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +49 pts
    5-5
    19:04

Overtime

  1. CAR
    T. Teravainen(14)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.25win prob +51 pts
    6-5
    3:25

Penalties

CAR 4 PIM·BUF 6 PIM

1st

  • 11:53CARJaccob Slavin · Hookingdrawn by Jack Eichel2 min

2nd

  • 6:13CARWarren Foegele · Holdingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min
  • 9:50BUFKyle Okposo · Trippingdrawn by Justin Williams2 min
  • 19:47BUFJake McCabe · Trippingdrawn by Micheal Ferland2 min

3rd

  • 14:45BUFJeff Skinner · Slashingdrawn by Jaccob Slavin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalCAR goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Teuvo Teravainen, OT 3:25 — CAR 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Pominville · Goal · xG 0.19J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.18J. Skinner · Goal · xG 0.18E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.17K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.16E. Rodrigues · Goal · xG 0.16J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.16C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.15S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.14J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.13C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.13J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.12C. Sheary · Missed · xG 0.12J. Pominville · Missed · xG 0.11J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.11J. Skinner · Goal · xG 0.10J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.10S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.10R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.09S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.08M. Scandella · Goal · xG 0.07J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.07R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.07J. Pominville · Missed · xG 0.07K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.07Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.06J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.06J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.05J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.05R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.03J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.03C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.03E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.02J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.02C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.02E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.02C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.01M. Scandella · Missed · xG 0.01K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.01V. Sobotka · On goal · xG 0.01M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.01J. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01
BUF5 G · 3.7 xG · 54 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsBUF
2.86 G
All situations
5 G3.7
2.45 G
Even strength
5 G3.1
0.51 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR37%63%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.82 – 3.61

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsBUF
30
Shots on goal
39
34%
Faceoffs
66%
1/3
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
9
Hits
16
5
Blocked shots
14
12
Giveaways
11
6
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
27J. FaulkD101020.10110—24:23
74J. SlavinD000-100.00212—23:20
22B. PesceD000000.00000—23:10
20S. AhoC022-240.210103722:56
21N. NiederreiterR101-280.81100—21:41
14J. WilliamsR011010.070003320:54
19D. HamiltonD000-130.09110—20:03
86T. TeravainenC213+120.440005019:44
44C. de HaanD011010.01100—16:10
23B. McGinnL101010.3200010015:16
71L. WallmarkC000-100.010003615:00
57T. van RiemsdykD011+100.00000—14:45
48J. MartinookL022+100.14000—14:29
37A. SvechnikovR022+140.13100—14:04
79M. FerlandL000000.00000—13:28
13W. FoegeleL000000.06202—10:36
42G. McKeggC101+110.190106008:42
8S. MaenalanenR000030.26000—07:34
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35C. McElhinney(W)39345.8723.65-1.3563:25

Season series

CAR leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).