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Hurricanes at Panthers
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
▸4
Florida Panthers
3
Final/OTTV FS-CR, FS-F·BB&T Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Florida Panthers 4-3 in overtime, Sebastian Aho scoring at 1:46. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sebastian Aho's goal at 1:46 of overtime, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 2.3 to 1.7; shots on goal were CAR 26, FLA 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Petr Mrazek stopped 31 of 34 (.912), 0.7 goals below expected; Samuel Montembeault stopped 22 of 26 (.846), 2.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Henrik Borgstrom (2 G, 1 A), 2. Sebastian Aho (1 G), 3. Jamie McGinn (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    H. Borgstrom2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    CAR
    S. Aho1 G
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    J. McGinn2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
CARCAR27091911426
FLAFLA2120911102334

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    B. McGinn(8)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.07win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    1:26
  2. CAR
    G. McKegg(5)
    L. Wallmark (16), T. van Riemsdyk (10)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    2:05
  3. FLA
    H. Borgstrom(6)
    D. Hunt (3), M. Pysyk (8)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +15 pts
    2-1
    5:01
  4. FLA
    M. Pysyk(1)
    J. McGinn (2), H. Borgstrom (6)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +13 pts
    2-2
    11:50

3rd period

  1. FLA
    H. Borgstrom(7)
    J. McGinn (3), D. Hunt (4)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +27 pts
    2-3
    5:32
  2. CAR
    B. Pesce(6)
    J. Staal (11)
    backhandxG 0.06win prob +29 pts
    3-3
    8:19

Overtime

  1. CAR
    S. Aho(27)
    N. Niederreiter (23)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +51 pts
    4-3
    1:46

Penalties

CAR 6 PIM·FLA 2 PIM

2nd

  • 0:38CARBrett Pesce · Holdingdrawn by Jayce Hawryluk2 min
  • 11:27FLAIan McCoshen · Slashingdrawn by Jordan Martinook2 min
  • 11:27CARJordan Martinook · Slashingdrawn by Ian McCoshen2 min

3rd

  • 10:31CARSaku Maenalanen · Trippingdrawn by Jayce Hawryluk2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalCAR goalFinal: FLA 0%

Biggest swing: Sebastian Aho, OT 1:46 — CAR 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.21E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.16V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.14J. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.13M. Hoffman · Missed · xG 0.11H. Borgstrom · Goal · xG 0.10T. Brouwer · Missed · xG 0.10F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.09M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.08V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.08M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.08J. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.07R. Sheahan · On goal · xG 0.06M. Matheson · On goal · xG 0.06J. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.06A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.05V. Trocheck · Missed · xG 0.05M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.05M. Pysyk · Goal · xG 0.04R. Sheahan · On goal · xG 0.04J. Brown · On goal · xG 0.04H. Borgstrom · Goal · xG 0.04M. Hoffman · Missed · xG 0.03K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.03F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.03E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.03V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.02M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.02R. Sheahan · Missed · xG 0.02J. Hawryluk · On goal · xG 0.02K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.02M. Hoffman · Missed · xG 0.02A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.02A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.02J. Hawryluk · On goal · xG 0.02V. Trocheck · Missed · xG 0.02F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.01K. Yandle · Missed · xG 0.01A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.01D. Hunt · On goal · xG 0.00V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.00I. McCoshen · On goal · xG 0.00
FLA3 G · 2.3 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsFLA
1.74 G
All situations
3 G2.3
1.74 G
Even strength
3 G1.9
0.00 G
Power play
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR38%62%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.66 – 2.26

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsFLA
26
Shots on goal
34
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/0
Power play
0/2
6
Penalty minutes
2
14
Hits
27
14
Blocked shots
12
12
Giveaways
13
11
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
74J. SlavinD000-110.02110—24:30
27J. FaulkD000000.05020—23:42
19D. HamiltonD000020.06330—21:41
22B. PesceD101+110.06012—20:53
20S. AhoC101+140.470002220:28
21N. NiederreiterR011+140.36100—18:22
86T. TeravainenC000-210.04000018:21
11J. StaalC011-110.041005216:58
57T. van RiemsdykD011030.03000—16:40
14J. WilliamsR000010.010302516:32
4H. FleuryD000+120.07100—14:50
79M. FerlandL000-110.02010—14:13
48J. MartinookL000000.000024412:54
23B. McGinnL101+120.131005012:50
71L. WallmarkC011+100.023005012:01
42G. McKeggC101+110.17120011:52
37A. SvechnikovR000010.12210—11:20
8S. MaenalanenR000+110.02002—11:11
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34P. Mrazek(W)34313.9122.26-0.7461:46

Season series

CAR leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).