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Penguins at Sabres
NHL

Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Pittsburgh Penguins
3
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
Final/OTTV ATTSN-PT, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 4-3 in overtime, Conor Sheary scoring at 4:11. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Penguins led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Conor Sheary's goal at 4:11 of overtime, which took the Sabres' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Penguins, 4.0 to 2.6; shots on goal were PIT 44, BUF 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 70% of the time. Matt Murray stopped 26 of 30 (.867), 1.4 goals below expected; Linus Ullmark stopped 41 of 44 (.932), 1.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Conor Sheary (2 G, 1 A), 2. Linus Ullmark (41 saves, .932), 3. Brandon Montour (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    C. Sheary2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    L. Ullmark41 saves, .932
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    B. Montour1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
PITPIT1202130803344
BUFBUF270911113430

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    J. Eichel(23)
    S. Reinhart (40)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    3:09
  2. PIT
    N. Bjugstad(8)
    J. Riikola (3), D. Simon (17)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    4:05
  3. BUF
    C. Sheary(10)PPG
    K. Okposo (13), B. Montour (21)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +11 pts
    1-2
    12:53

2nd period

  1. PIT
    P. Hornqvist(16)PPG
    J. Schultz (8), S. Crosby (51)
    deflectedxG 0.13win prob +12 pts
    2-2
    17:18
  2. PIT
    S. Crosby(28)PPG
    E. Malkin (45), J. Schultz (9)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +23 pts
    3-2
    18:21

3rd period

  1. BUF
    B. Montour(6)
    E. Rodrigues (16), C. Sheary (18)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +44 pts
    3-3
    17:28

Overtime

  1. BUF
    C. Sheary(11)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.12win prob +49 pts
    3-4
    4:11

Penalties

PIT 6 PIM·BUF 10 PIM

1st

  • 11:02PITGarrett Wilson · Roughingdrawn by Sam Reinhart2 min
  • 17:02PITEvgeni Malkin · Slashingdrawn by Brandon Montour2 min
  • 17:02BUFBrandon Montour · Slashingdrawn by Evgeni Malkin2 min
  • 19:59BUFMatt Hunwick · Hookingdrawn by Zachary Aston-Reese2 min

2nd

  • 13:37BUFMatt Hunwick · Interferencedrawn by Sidney Crosby2 min
  • 16:25BUFScott Wilson · High sticking double minordrawn by Marcus Pettersson4 min

3rd

  • 11:47PITPatric Hornqvist · High stickingdrawn by Rasmus Ristolainen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalPIT goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Conor Sheary, OT 4:11 — BUF 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.20E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.17S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.17J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.16Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.15J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.15J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.14B. Montour · Goal · xG 0.13J. Eichel · Goal · xG 0.12C. Sheary · Goal · xG 0.12C. Sheary · Goal · xG 0.12S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.11C. Sheary · Missed · xG 0.10J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.10R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.10J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.08S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.07K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.06J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.05S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.05J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.04E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.02J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.02S. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.02B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.02B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.02K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.02S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.01J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.01J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF4 G · 2.6 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PITvsBUF
4.03 G
All situations
4 G2.6
3.61 G
Even strength
3 G2.3
0.42 G
Power play
1 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PIT70%30%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.93 – 2.64

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PITvsBUF
44
Shots on goal
30
61%
Faceoffs
39%
2/3
Power play
1/2
6
Penalty minutes
10
24
Hits
20
15
Blocked shots
17
9
Giveaways
8
2
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Pittsburgh Penguins skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4J. SchultzD022020.04030—25:54
28M. PetterssonD000-320.01330—24:38
73J. JohnsonD000-120.08420—24:38
71E. MalkinC011-240.651025022:47
87S. CrosbyC112-130.421106422:13
81P. KesselR000-171.12000—21:20
44E. GudbransonD000-130.22210—20:19
59J. GuentzelC000-120.12100018:46
72P. HornqvistR101-150.32112—17:21
19J. McCannL000+100.1811010016:12
27N. BjugstadC101+110.153005915:43
46Z. Aston-ReeseL000-120.12100—15:24
12D. SimonC011+160.34000013:42
50J. RiikolaD011+120.06400—12:31
5Z. TrotmanD000+120.03220—12:02
7M. CullenC000-110.120006308:28
53T. BluegerC000000.0000010008:25
10G. WilsonL000000.00012—06:42
Pittsburgh Penguins goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30M. Murray(O)30264.8672.64-1.3663:48

Season series

BUF leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).