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Sabres at Penguins
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
Pittsburgh Penguins
4
Final/OTTV ATTSN-PT, MSG-B·PPG Paints Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 5-4 in overtime, Jack Eichel scoring at 0:45. The Sabres came back from three goals down. The Penguins led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jack Eichel's goal at 0:45 of overtime, which took the Sabres' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Penguins, 3.6 to 2.9; shots on goal were BUF 40, PIT 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Carter Hutton stopped 36 of 40 (.900); Casey DeSmith stopped 35 of 40 (.875), 2.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jack Eichel (1 G, 1 A), 2. Zach Bogosian (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jake Guentzel (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    J. Eichel1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    Z. Bogosian1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    PIT
    J. Guentzel1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
BUFBUF11021111811540
PITPIT2152160900440

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. PIT
    D. Brassard(2)
    P. Hornqvist (4)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    8:46
  2. BUF
    T. Thompson(1)
    S. Reinhart (12), R. Ristolainen (8)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    11:43
  3. PIT
    P. Kessel(10)
    T. Pearson (2), E. Malkin (19)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    16:15

2nd period

  1. PIT
    J. Guentzel(7)
    P. Hornqvist (5)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +14 pts
    1-3
    1:24
  2. PIT
    T. Pearson(1)
    J. Johnson (5), E. Malkin (20)
    backhandxG 0.09win prob +9 pts
    1-4
    5:00
  3. BUF
    Z. Bogosian(2)
    J. Skinner (8), J. Eichel (19)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +8 pts
    2-4
    10:39
  4. BUF
    C. Nelson(1)
    K. Okposo (7), C. Sheary (5)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +15 pts
    3-4
    18:12

3rd period

  1. BUF
    C. Mittelstadt(3)
    K. Okposo (8), Z. Bogosian (2)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +32 pts
    4-4
    11:12

Overtime

  1. BUF
    J. Eichel(5)
    R. Ristolainen (9)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +51 pts
    5-4
    0:45

Penalties

BUF 11 PIM·PIT 11 PIM

1st

  • 4:16PITOlli Maatta · High stickingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min
  • 16:50BUFJake McCabe · Boardingdrawn by Zachary Aston-Reese2 min
  • 16:50BUFJake McCabe · Fightingdrawn by Riley Sheahan5 min
  • 16:50PITRiley Sheahan · Fightingdrawn by Jake McCabe5 min

2nd

  • 5:42BUFZach Bogosian · Hookingdrawn by Dominik Simon2 min
  • 7:13BUFMarco Scandella · High stickingdrawn by Evgeni Malkin2 min

3rd

  • 2:44PITDerick Brassard · Hookingdrawn by Jason Pominville2 min
  • 13:40PITChad Ruhwedel · Hookingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PIT goalBUF goalFinal: PIT 0%

Biggest swing: Jack Eichel, OT 0:45 — BUF 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.36D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.23D. Grant · On goal · xG 0.20J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.19J. Guentzel · Goal · xG 0.18P. Kessel · On goal · xG 0.15E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.15T. Pearson · On goal · xG 0.14J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.14P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.13D. Brassard · Goal · xG 0.13P. Kessel · Missed · xG 0.13Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.12P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.11B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.10P. Kessel · Goal · xG 0.09J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.09P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.09E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.09T. Pearson · Goal · xG 0.09P. Hornqvist · Missed · xG 0.09E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.07T. Pearson · On goal · xG 0.07E. Malkin · Missed · xG 0.05O. Maatta · On goal · xG 0.05P. Kessel · On goal · xG 0.04J. Oleksiak · On goal · xG 0.04K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.03E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.03D. Sprong · Missed · xG 0.03D. Grant · Missed · xG 0.02J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.02J. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.02O. Maatta · Missed · xG 0.02K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.01D. Sprong · On goal · xG 0.01D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.01B. Dumoulin · On goal · xG 0.01P. Kessel · On goal · xG 0.01R. Sheahan · On goal · xG 0.01T. Pearson · On goal · xG 0.01B. Dumoulin · On goal · xG 0.01O. Maatta · On goal · xG 0.01K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.00D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.00C. Ruhwedel · On goal · xG 0.00
PIT4 G · 3.6 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsPIT
2.95 G
All situations
4 G3.6
2.25 G
Even strength
4 G2.0
0.50 G
Power play
0 G1.2
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF39%61%PIT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.82 – 3.50

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsPIT
40
Shots on goal
40
48%
Faceoffs
52%
0/3
Power play
0/3
11
Penalty minutes
11
28
Hits
46
7
Blocked shots
15
5
Giveaways
13
5
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55R. RistolainenD022+220.02600—26:56
26R. DahlinD000-220.19410—22:49
19J. McCabeD000+110.00217—20:39
4Z. BogosianD112050.12002—19:35
9J. EichelC112+160.331004418:24
23S. ReinhartC011+120.24100016:42
10P. BerglundC000000.211006016:31
28Z. GirgensonsC000-140.26310015:44
53J. SkinnerL011-130.300005015:35
72T. ThompsonC101010.161105015:21
8C. NelsonD101020.04210—15:18
22J. LarssonL000-110.071006715:03
29J. PominvilleR000020.16000—15:00
17V. SobotkaC000+140.414104214:48
37C. MittelstadtC101010.150001412:51
21K. OkposoR022020.020005012:50
43C. ShearyL011+220.18100—12:36
6M. ScandellaD000000.00112—09:33
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40C. Hutton(W)40364.9003.60-0.4060:45

Season series

BUF leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).