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Maple Leafs at Lightning
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Tampa Bay Lightning
2
FinalTV ESPN+, SUN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Maple Leafs led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mitch Marner's goal at 14:49 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 47% to 68%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.0 to 3.0; shots on goal were TOR 31, TBL 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 36 of 38 (.947), 1.0 goals saved above expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 27 of 30 (.900). Three stars: 1. Frederik Andersen (36 saves, .947), 2. Brayden Point (1 G, 1 A), 3. Patrick Marleau (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    F. Andersen36 saves, .947
  2. ★★
    TBL
    B. Point1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    P. Marleau1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR1928114431
TBLTBL110112016238

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(30)PPG
    V. Hedman (25), S. Stamkos (30)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +10 pts
    0-1
    9:48
  2. TOR
    N. Kadri(10)
    K. Kapanen (14), P. Marleau (11)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    11:48

2nd period

  1. TOR
    P. Marleau(11)
    N. Kadri (18), N. Zaitsev (4)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +20 pts
    2-1
    13:06
  2. TBL
    V. Hedman(6)
    N. Kucherov (54), B. Point (33)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +20 pts
    2-2
    13:43
  3. TOR
    M. Marner(19)
    J. Tavares (22), A. Johnsson (12)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +21 pts
    3-2
    14:49

3rd period

  1. TOR
    Z. Hyman(8)EN
    N. Zaitsev (5), J. Tavares (23)
    wristxG 0.93win prob +3 pts
    4-2
    19:09

Penalties

TOR 8 PIM·TBL 4 PIM

1st

  • 5:32TBLNikita Kucherov · Slashingdrawn by Nikita Zaitsev2 min
  • 8:34TORIgor Ozhiganov · Hookingdrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min
  • 12:09TBLVictor Hedman · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

2nd

  • 2:47TORTravis Dermott · Interferencedrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min
  • 16:26TORWilliam Nylander · Holdingdrawn by Victor Hedman2 min

3rd

  • 1:59TORZach Hyman · Slashingdrawn by Mikhail Sergachev2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalTOR goalFinal: TBL 0%

Biggest swing: Mitch Marner, 2nd 14:49 — TOR 47% → 68%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Point · Goal · xG 0.20S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.14S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.13B. Point · On goal · xG 0.13A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.13S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.12S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.12S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.12B. Point · Missed · xG 0.12A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.11O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.11S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.11S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.10N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.10S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.10N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.08V. Hedman · Goal · xG 0.08S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.08Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.08S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.07M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.06B. Point · Missed · xG 0.05J. Miller · On goal · xG 0.04V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.04V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.04V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.04V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.04N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.03N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.03A. Erne · Missed · xG 0.03R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.03N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.03D. Girardi · On goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.03E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.02Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.02S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.02A. Stralman · On goal · xG 0.02E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.02E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02R. Callahan · On goal · xG 0.01N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.00V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.00R. Callahan · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL2 G · 3.0 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsTBL
4.03 G
All situations
2 G3.0
2.83 G
Even strength
1 G1.1
0.20 G
Power play
1 G1.8
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR51%49%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.01 – 2.97

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsTBL
31
Shots on goal
38
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/2
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
4
17
Hits
30
21
Blocked shots
8
8
Giveaways
4
8
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
22N. ZaitsevD022+100.00230—25:54
51J. GardinerD000+110.03400—24:49
2R. HainseyD000+200.00240—23:34
44M. RiellyD000+210.06010—22:21
16M. MarnerR101+130.34010—19:11
91J. TavaresC022+220.100104718:41
24K. KapanenR011+340.52000—18:04
11Z. HymanL101031.140026717:55
34A. MatthewsC000-130.370104317:30
12P. MarleauC112+210.12120015:53
43N. KadriC112+230.202005015:41
29W. NylanderR000020.202021115:08
18A. JohnssonL011+130.28220—13:13
23T. DermottD000030.05132—10:40
28C. BrownR000020.58010—10:28
92I. OzhiganovD000000.01002—09:00
26P. LindholmC000000.070005008:44
33F. GauthierC000-100.001206706:00
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(W)38362.9472.99+0.9960:00

Season series

TBL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).