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Maple Leafs at Lightning
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
1
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸4
FinalTV SUN, TVAS·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-1. The Maple Leafs scored first; the Lightning answered. The Lightning led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alex Killorn's goal at 19:24 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 75% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.2 to 2.0; shots on goal were TOR 49, TBL 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 71% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 17 of 21 (.810), 2.0 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 48 of 49 (.980), 2.2 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Andrei Vasilevskiy (48 saves, .980), 2. Anthony Cirelli (1 G, 1 A), 3. Nikita Kucherov (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    A. Vasilevskiy48 saves, .980
  2. ★★
    TBL
    A. Cirelli1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR110023016149
TBLTBL1731202421

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    K. Kapanen(12)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.29win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    5:26
  2. TBL
    A. Cirelli(9)SHG
    R. Callahan (5)
    backhandxG 0.06win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    8:20

2nd period

  1. TBL
    N. Kucherov(13)PPG
    V. Hedman (14), J. Miller (18)
    slapxG 0.16win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    5:31
  2. TBL
    A. Killorn(7)
    A. Cirelli (4), J. Miller (19)
    backhandxG 0.04win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    19:24
  3. TBL
    T. Johnson(13)
    N. Kucherov (34), D. Girardi (8)
    slapxG 0.10win prob +7 pts
    1-4
    19:58

Penalties

TOR 8 PIM·TBL 14 PIM

1st

  • 6:54TBLCedric Paquette · High stickingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min
  • 14:21TORTravis Dermott · Slashingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min
  • 18:35TBLYanni Gourde · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

2nd

  • 3:57TORNazem Kadri · Closing hand on puck2 min
  • 6:32TBLAlex Killorn · Interferencedrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min
  • 8:44TORNazem Kadri · Roughingdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min
  • 8:44TBLErik Cernak · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min
  • 8:44TBLRyan Callahan · Roughingdrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 10:07TORKasperi Kapanen · Trippingdrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min
  • 13:12TBLDan Girardi · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

  • 9:26TBLSteven Stamkos · Interferencedrawn by John Tavares2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalTOR goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Alex Killorn, 2nd 19:24 — TBL 75% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Kucherov · Goal · xG 0.16J. Miller · Missed · xG 0.15B. Point · On goal · xG 0.14V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.12T. Johnson · Goal · xG 0.11N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.10R. Callahan · Missed · xG 0.09V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.09E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.08A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.08S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.07A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.06J. Miller · On goal · xG 0.06Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.06O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.06A. Cirelli · Goal · xG 0.06A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.05A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.05A. Killorn · Goal · xG 0.04E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.04M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.03B. Point · On goal · xG 0.03B. Point · Missed · xG 0.03A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.02B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.02S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.02D. Girardi · Missed · xG 0.01
TBL4 G · 2.0 xG · 32 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsTBL
3.21 G
All situations
4 G2.0
1.71 G
Even strength
2 G1.3
1.40 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.10 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR71%29%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.16 – 1.96

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsTBL
49
Shots on goal
21
54%
Faceoffs
46%
0/6
Power play
1/3
8
Penalty minutes
14
19
Hits
27
16
Blocked shots
23
4
Giveaways
12
6
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD000010.01110—22:21
34A. MatthewsC000+120.370004722:03
16M. MarnerR000070.22010—21:23
91J. TavaresC000060.491004819:10
51J. GardinerD000-150.09300—18:13
23T. DermottD000-110.02322—18:02
43N. KadriC000-160.491047317:54
22N. ZaitsevD000020.02160—17:48
2R. HainseyD000010.00010—17:24
29W. NylanderR000-230.180005516:00
18A. JohnssonL000020.26000—15:43
12P. MarleauC000-210.031005015:14
24K. KapanenR101+150.47002—15:07
28C. BrownR000030.22000—15:03
92I. OzhiganovD000-100.00130—14:49
26P. LindholmC000-100.003107511:12
63T. EnnisR000-220.30210—10:49
33F. GauthierC000-120.052005706:31
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(L)21174.8101.96-2.0459:40

Season series

TBL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).