Islanders at Sabres 3-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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New York Islanders

▸3

Buffalo Sabres

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Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-1. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brock Nelson's goal at 1:45 of the third period, which took the Islanders' chances from 72% to 90%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 3.5 to 2.3; shots on goal were NYI 33, BUF 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Robin Lehner stopped 39 of 40 (.975), 1.3 goals saved above expected; Carter Hutton stopped 30 of 32 (.938), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Robin Lehner (39 saves, .975), 2. Brock Nelson (1 G), 3. Kyle Okposo (1 G).

Three stars

★
R. Lehner39 saves, .975
★★
B. Nelson1 G
★★★
K. Okposo1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	015	115	23	333
BUF	012	015	113	140

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

L. Komarov(5)
N. Leddy (11), M. Barzal (26)
deflectedxG 0.01win prob +16 pts
1-0
2:59

3rd period

B. Nelson(13)
J. Ho-Sang (1), S. Mayfield (11)
wristxG 0.04win prob +18 pts
2-0
1:45
K. Okposo(6)PPG
N. Beaulieu (4), C. Mittelstadt (6)
wristxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
2-1
10:14
R. Pulock(3)EN
R. Lehner (1)
wristxG 0.41win prob +3 pts
3-1
19:28

Penalties

4 PIM·

4 PIM

2nd

7:35Zach Bogosian · Slashingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min
11:41Jake McCabe · High stickingdrawn by Ryan Pulock2 min

3rd

8:32Mathew Barzal · Slashingdrawn by Casey Mittelstadt2 min
13:07Scott Mayfield · Trippingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: BUF

Biggest swing: Brock Nelson, 3rd 1:45 — NYI 72% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.3 xG · 49 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 3.5 xG · 45 att BUF

1 G · 2.3 xG · 49 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.52 G
All situations: 1 G2.3; 1.82 G
Even strength: 0 G1.8; 1.00 G
Power play: 1 G0.4; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

59%41%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.74 – 2.23

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

33
Shots on goal: 40; 46%
Faceoffs: 54%; 0/2
Power play: 1/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 4; 12
Hits: 10; 16
Blocked shots: 11; 6
Giveaways: 9; 6
Takeaways: 3

Box score

every player line

New York Islanders skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
6R. PulockD	1	0	1	+1	4	0.51	2	3	0	—	22:22
29B. NelsonC	1	0	1	+1	3	0.33	0	0	0	31	20:58
13M. BarzalC	0	1	1	+1	2	0.03	0	0	2	50	20:12
55J. BoychukD	0	0	0	+2	3	0.07	0	0	0	—	19:36
25D. ToewsD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.02	0	0	0	—	19:33
53C. CizikasC	0	0	0	+1	3	0.30	0	1	0	47	19:11
2N. LeddyD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.02	1	1	0	—	19:09
24S. MayfieldD	0	1	1	+1	2	0.15	0	1	2	—	19:02
3A. PelechD	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	1	6	0	—	17:58
27A. LeeL	0	0	0	+1	2	0.47	0	0	0	100	17:44
12J. BaileyR	0	0	0	0	1	0.06	0	0	0	60	16:43
26J. Ho-SangR	0	1	1	+1	2	0.26	0	1	0	—	16:33
15C. ClutterbuckR	0	0	0	+1	2	0.61	3	1	0	—	16:32
18A. BeauvillierR	0	0	0	0	6	0.46	1	2	0	—	15:39
47L. KomarovR	1	0	1	+2	1	0.01	1	0	0	50	14:14
28M. Dal ColleL	0	0	0	+1	1	0.18	0	0	0	—	10:37
17M. MartinL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	0	0	—	09:50
51V. FilppulaC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	0	00:32

New York Islanders goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
40R. Lehner(W)	40	39	1	.975	2.26	+1.26	59:53

Season series

NYI leads 2-1

Dec 313@1this game
Feb 121@3Final
Mar 301@5Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

3rd

Box score