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Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning

Final/OTTV NBCSN, TVAS·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Philadelphia Flyers 6-5 in overtime, Alex Killorn scoring at 0:18. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Lightning led 5-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alex Killorn's goal at 0:18 of overtime, which took the Lightning's chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.4 to 2.8; shots on goal were PHI 33, TBL 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Michal Neuvirth stopped 31 of 37 (.838), 2.6 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 28 of 33 (.848), 2.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nikita Kucherov (1 G, 3 A), 2. Steven Stamkos (2 G, 2 A), 3. Alex Killorn (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov1 G, 3 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    S. Stamkos2 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    A. Killorn1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
PHIPHI1111931300533
TBLTBL2163120811637

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. PHI
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    10:50
  2. TBL
    T. Johnson (12), B. Point (27)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    13:56
  3. TBL
    B. Point(22)PPG
    wristxG 0.30win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    19:12

2nd period

  1. PHI
    wristxG 0.17win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    4:36
  2. TBL
    wristxG 0.11win prob +19 pts
    2-3
    12:23
  3. TBL
    S. Stamkos(22)PPG
    slapxG 0.17win prob +13 pts
    2-4
    14:54
  4. TBL
    deflectedxG 0.19win prob +7 pts
    2-5
    19:51

3rd period

  1. PHI
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +6 pts
    3-5
    1:33
  2. PHI
    slapxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    4-5
    4:21
  3. PHI
    snapxG 0.07win prob +29 pts
    5-5
    8:38

Overtime

  1. TBL
    wristxG 0.17win prob +49 pts
    5-6
    0:18

Penalties

PHI 13 PIM·TBL 11 PIM

1st

  • 8:20TBLTyler Johnson · Hookingdrawn by Shayne Gostisbehere2 min
  • 17:22PHITravis Sanheim · Hookingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 19:33TBLAnthony Cirelli · Fightingdrawn by Nolan Patrick5 min
  • 19:33PHINolan Patrick · Fightingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli5 min

2nd

  • 4:36TBLserved by J. Miller · Delaying game bench2 min
  • 13:21PHIAndrew MacDonald · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

  • 14:00PHIMichael Raffl · Trippingdrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min
  • 16:16TBLAdam Erne · Roughingdrawn by Radko Gudas2 min
  • 16:16PHIRadko Gudas · Roughingdrawn by Adam Erne2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalPHI goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Alex Killorn, OT 0:18 — TBL 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Point · Goal · xG 0.30N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.21T. Johnson · Goal · xG 0.19S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.17A. Killorn · Goal · xG 0.17S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.16T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.15A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.14N. Kucherov · Goal · xG 0.13O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.13C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.12A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.12C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.12S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.11T. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.10R. Callahan · Missed · xG 0.10N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.09R. Callahan · On goal · xG 0.09B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.08C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.08C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.08T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.05R. Callahan · Missed · xG 0.05T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.05A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.05O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.04T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.04T. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.03V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.03D. Girardi · On goal · xG 0.02B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.02A. Stralman · Missed · xG 0.02B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.02A. Stralman · On goal · xG 0.02D. Girardi · Missed · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.01A. Stralman · Missed · xG 0.01M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.01A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.01A. Stralman · On goal · xG 0.00N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.00R. Callahan · On goal · xG 0.00D. Girardi · On goal · xG 0.00A. Stralman · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL6 G · 3.4 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PHIvsTBL
2.85 G
All situations
6 G3.4
2.45 G
Even strength
4 G2.2
0.40 G
Power play
2 G1.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PHI40%60%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.76 – 3.36

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PHIvsTBL
33
Shots on goal
37
54%
Faceoffs
46%
0/2
Power play
2/3
13
Penalty minutes
11
17
Hits
16
10
Blocked shots
19
8
Giveaways
8
6
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Philadelphia Flyers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
9I. ProvorovD101+120.19100—27:11
28C. GirouxR112+120.221005523:26
14S. CouturierC011+130.291007023:15
93J. VoracekR011+140.23010—19:40
53S. GostisbehereD000-130.08020—19:35
47A. MacDonaldD011+110.02012—18:34
6T. SanheimD011+210.25202—18:21
3R. GudasD011+110.03432—18:10
21S. LaughtonC011-100.001004416:42
17W. SimmondsR000+130.23100—16:16
8R. HaggD101-110.08310—15:41
25J. van RiemsdykL022+220.22000—15:33
11T. KonecnyR000+100.11020—14:54
12M. RafflL101-130.24102—12:43
22D. WeiseR101-150.37000—11:26
23O. LindblomL000010.15000—07:34
44P. VaroneC000010.080004307:27
19N. PatrickC000000.00205007:03
Philadelphia Flyers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30M. Neuvirth(O)37316.8383.42-2.5860:18

Season series

TBL leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).